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Rainfall an unlikely factor in Kīlauea’s 2018 rift eruption

Nature volume 602, pages E7–E10 (2022)Cite this article

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Matters Arising to this article was published on 02 February 2022

The Original Article was published on 22 April 2020

arising from J. I. Farquharson & F. Amelung, F. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2172-5 (2020)

If volcanic eruptions could be forecast from the occurrence of some external process, it might be possible to better mitigate risk and protect lives and livelihoods. Farquharson and Amelung1 suggested that the 2018 lower East Rift Zone (ERZ) eruption of Kīlauea Volcano—the most destructive eruption in Hawai‘i in at least 200 years2—was triggered by extreme precipitation, which caused increased pore pressure that resulted in mechanical weakening of the volcano. Here we argue that Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption was instead caused by significant pre-eruptive pressurization, that pre-eruptive rainfall was not extreme, and that there is no significant correlation between rain and eruptions at Kīlauea. Understanding the causal mechanisms of volcanic eruptions is vital for hazard assessment and mitigation, and misattribution may compromise monitoring, preparedness, communication and response efforts.

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Fig. 1: Monitoring data from Kīlauea Volcano spanning January–April 2018.
Fig. 2: Rainfall on the Island of Hawaiʻi.

Data availability

GNSS datasets analysed during the current study are available from the UNAVCO Geodetic Facility for the Advancement of Geosciences (GAGE) facility, https://www.unavco.org/data/gps-gnss/gps-gnss.html, and rainfall data are available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/search.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful for comments from S. Ingebritsen and L. Mastin.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. U.S. Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, USA

    Michael P. Poland & Emily K. Montgomery-Brown

  2. U.S. Geological Survey, California Volcano Observatory, Moffett Field, CA, USA

    Shaul Hurwitz & Kyle R. Anderson

  3. U.S. Geological Survey, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Hilo, HI, USA

    James P. Kauahikaua, Ingrid A. Johanson & Matthew R. Patrick

  4. U.S. Geological Survey, Volcano Science Center, Anchorage, AK, USA

    Christina A. Neal

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Contributions

M.P.P., E.K.M.-B., K.R.A., I.A.J. and M.R.P. contributed to magma pressure descriptions and calculations. S.H., J.P.K. and E.K.M.-B. contributed to rainfall calculations and pore pressure impacts. C.A.N. contributed hazard assessment and communication information. M.P.P. and M.R.P. contributed to statistical arguments. M.P.P. coordinated manuscript preparation, in which all authors engaged.

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Correspondence to Michael P. Poland.

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Poland, M.P., Hurwitz, S., Kauahikaua, J.P. et al. Rainfall an unlikely factor in Kīlauea’s 2018 rift eruption. Nature 602, E7–E10 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04163-1

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