Kilpatrick ES et al. (2008) A1c variability and the risk of microvascular complications in type 1 diabetes: data from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. Diabetes Care 31: 2198–2202

Whether fluctuations in blood-glucose levels influence the incidence of microvascular complications in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) is a controversial topic. An analysis of data from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) suggests that long-term glycemic instability increases the risk of retinopathy and nephropathy in such patients.

The DCCT was a 9-year study that compared the effects of conventional and intensive glycemic control on the development of microvascular complications in 1,441 diabetic individuals. Kilpatrick et al. examined variability in quarterly HbA1c measurements as an indicator of glycemic instability. HbA1c variability was higher in conventionally treated patients than in those treated intensively. Whether measured as updated HbA1c, SDs of HbA1c levels across all follow-up visits, or an updated, time-dependent SD, variability was an independent predictor of retinopathy and nephropathy: every 1% increase in the HbA1c SD was associated with a hazard ratio of 2.26 for development of retinopathy, and 1.80 for nephropathy. A patient whose HbA1c variability was in the 97.5th centile had more than three times the risk of developing retinopathy, and more than twice the risk for nephropathy, of a patient whose variability was in the 2.5th centile.

The authors conclude that, in contrast to the apparent lack of effect of short-term (daily) changes in blood glucose, long-term fluctuations in serum HbA1c levels increase the risk of microvascular complications in patients with T1DM. Regular measurements of HbA1c levels might help to monitor at-risk patients.