Paris

Questions raised by medical advances and the spread of AIDS will create significant challenges for the next Pope, say religious experts.

Such considerations will be important factors in the deliberations of this week's electing conclave. But will a new leader create scope within the Roman Catholic Church for a shift in thinking on these issues? Few expect any rapid change, in particular on the Church's 135-year dogma that human life begins at conception, and its consequent opposition to human stem-cell and embryo research (see ‘When does life begin?’). But AIDS workers are hopeful that there may be room for manoeuvre when it comes to the new Pope's position on condom use.

John Paul II was one of the most science-friendly Popes yet (see Nature 434, 684; 200510.1038/434684a). But this openness ended where sexual issues came into play. Despite the fact that his pontificate spanned the start of the AIDS pandemic, the discovery of HIV and the spread of the disease throughout Africa, John Paul took an ultraconservative stance on the use of condoms. He embraced Pope Paul VI's controversial 1968 encyclical Humanae Vitae, which was the Church's first explicit ban on contraception.

Catholic tastes: the Pope elected by this week's conclave may have more liberal views on condom use. Credit: C. ONORATI/EPA

On the encyclical's 20th anniversary, John Paul said that no consideration could justify the use of contraception, arguing that chastity and research are the answers to controlling the AIDS epidemic. His message has been amplified around the world: evangelicals in the United States have made fidelity and abstinence prominent parts of President George W. Bush's African AIDS programmes, at the expense of efforts to promote condom use (see Nature 430, 279; 2004).

Many AIDS workers argue that John Paul's active opposition to condoms damaged efforts to control the disease, especially in poor countries. “Policy differences with the Vatican on condom use are an issue of concern,” says Ben Plumley of the Joint UN Programme on HIV/AIDS in Geneva. He explains that the Church has hampered the agency's attempts to educate people. Advice from the Vatican has at times contradicted scientific understanding — one senior Vatican official declared on television that HIV is small enough to pass through condoms (see Nature Medicine 9, 1443; 2003). But, he adds, “the Church in recent years has shown willingness to debate the issue. We strongly encourage this.”

John Paul's position was by no means accepted throughout the Church. Humanae Vitae's stance on contraception has been controversial from the outset and is ignored by many of the clergy, according to Timothy Thibodeau, an expert on Church history at Nazareth College in Rochester, New York. “Many of the cardinals from the developing world are at the ‘ground zero’ of AIDS,” he says, and they see the dogma as divorced from reality.

As John Paul's grip on the Church diminished in his dying days, opposition to his AIDS policy surfaced. In February, Cardinal Georges Cottier, the Swiss theologian of the pontifical household, became the most senior church official to argue that condom use to prevent AIDS is “legitimate”. Cottier says a theological case could be made for using condoms to prevent the spread of disease, while forbidding their use as contraceptives. The same position was adopted earlier in February by the Spanish bishops' conference in Madrid. And a relaxed stance on condoms for AIDS prevention is also supported by Cardinal Carlo Martini, archbishop of Milan, Italy.

As Nature went to press, no new Pope had been chosen. However, Thibodeau warns that even a Pope with liberal views will not endorse change lightly. The problem is not contraception as such, he points out, but the fact that it is wrapped up in a ‘package deal’ of teaching on human sexuality. Many in the church fear that relaxing dogma on contraception could trigger wider questions on topics such as marriage for priests and the notion of sex for pleasure.