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The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts

Countries have reported some five million COVID-19 deaths in two years, but global excess deaths are estimated at double or even quadruple that figure.
  1. David Adam

    1. David Adam is a science journalist in London.

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Relatives of a deceased person mourn during a mass burial of COVID-19 victims at the Parque Taruma cemetery in Manaus, Brazil.

A family stands at the grave of a relative who died from COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, in May 2020. Credit: Andre Coelho/Getty

Last year’s Day of the Dead marked a grim milestone. On 1 November, the global death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic passed 5 million, official data suggested. It has now reached 5.5 million. But that figure is a significant underestimate. Records of excess mortality — a metric that involves comparing all deaths recorded with those expected to occur — show many more people than this have died in the pandemic.

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Nature 601, 312-315 (2022)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-00104-8

Updates & Corrections

  • Clarification 31 January 2022: This article has been modified to include researchers’ views about COVID-19 deaths in China.

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