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Complex systems

Foreseeing tipping points

Nature volume 467, pages 411–412 (2010)Cite this article

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Theory suggests that the risk of critical transitions in complex systems can be revealed by generic indicators. A lab study of extinction in plankton populations provides experimental support for that principle. See Letter p. 456

On page 456 of this issue, Drake and Griffen1 show that subtle changes in the pattern of fluctuations in a population can indicate whether that population is close to extinction. This is a step forward for conservation biology, but the wider implications are even more profound. The symptoms detected belong to a family of generic leading indicators that may help to determine whether a complex system is on the brink of collapse.

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Figure 1: Tipping points and leading indicators.

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  1. Marten Scheffer is in the Environmental Sciences Group, Wageningen University, 6700 Wageningen, the Netherlands. marten.scheffer@wur.nl ,

    Marten Scheffer

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  1. Marten Scheffer
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Scheffer, M. Foreseeing tipping points. Nature 467, 411–412 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1038/467411a

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