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Nonlinear effects of large-scale climatic variability on wild and domestic herbivores

Nature volume 410, pages 1096–1099 (2001)Cite this article

Abstract

Large-scale climatic fluctuations, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)1,2, have been shown to affect many ecological processes3,4,5,6. Such effects have been typically assumed to be linear. Only one study has reported a nonlinear relation7; however, that nonlinear relation was monotonic (that is, no reversal). Here we show that there is a strong nonlinear and non-monotonic (that is, reversed) effect of the NAO on body weight during the subsequent autumn for 23,838 individual wild red deer (Cervus elaphus) and 139,485 individual domestic sheep (Ovis aries) sampled over several decades on the west coast of Norway. These relationships are, at least in part, explained by comparable nonlinear and non-monotonic relations between the NAO and local climatic variables (temperature, precipitation and snow depth). The similar patterns observed for red deer and sheep, the latter of which live indoors during winter and so experience a stable energy supply in winter, suggest that the (winter) climatic variability (for which the index is a proxy) must influence the summer foraging conditions directly or indirectly.

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Figure 1: Relationship between autumn body weight of adult (≥ 1 yr) red deer and the North Atlantic Oscillation, an index of large-scale winter climatic variability.
Figure 2: Relationship between autumn body weight of domestic sheep lambs, which are free-ranging only during summer, and the North Atlantic Oscillation, an index of large-scale winter climatic variability.
Figure 3: Relationship between the local climatic variables at the west coast of Norway and the North Atlantic Oscillation, an index of large-scale winter climatic variability.

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Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Research Council of Norway to A.M. and G.S.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, Division of Zoology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1050 Blindern, Oslo, N-0316, Norway

    Atle Mysterud, Nils Chr. Stenseth & Nigel G. Yoccoz

  2. Department of Arctic Ecology, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Polar Environmental Centre, Tromsø, N-9296, Norway

    Nigel G. Yoccoz

  3. University Courses on Svalbard (UNIS), Longyearbyen, N-9170, Spitsbergen, Norway

    Rolf Langvatn

  4. Department of Animal Science, Agricultural University of Norway, PO Box 5025, Ås, N-1432, Norway

    Geir Steinheim

Authors
  1. Atle Mysterud
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  2. Nils Chr. Stenseth
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  3. Nigel G. Yoccoz
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  4. Rolf Langvatn
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  5. Geir Steinheim
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Correspondence to Nils Chr. Stenseth.

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Mysterud, A., Stenseth, N., Yoccoz, N. et al. Nonlinear effects of large-scale climatic variability on wild and domestic herbivores. Nature 410, 1096–1099 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1038/35074099

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