Review Article | Published:

Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases: an assessment of their relative roles in global climate change

Naturevolume 346pages713719 (1990) | Download Citation

Subjects

Abstract

Many mechanisms, including variations in solar radiation and atmospheric aerosol concentrations, compete with anthropogenic greenhouse gases as causes of global climate change. Comparisons of available data show that solar variability will not counteract greenhouse warming and that future observations will need to be made to quantify the role of tropospheric aerosols, for example.

Access optionsAccess options

Rent or Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

from$8.99

All prices are NET prices.

References

  1. 1

    Keeling, C. D., Bacastow, R. & Whorf, T. Carbon Dioxide Review (ed. Clark, W. C.) 375–385 (Clarendon, New York, 1983).

  2. 2

    Barnola, J. M. et al. Nature 329, 408–414 (1987).

  3. 3

    Weiss, R. F. J. geophys. Res. 86, 7185–7195 (1981).

  4. 4

    Charney, J. Carbon Dioxide and Climate (Natn. Acad. Sci., Washington, DC, 1979).

  5. 5

    Hansen, J. et al. Science 213, 957–966 (1981).

  6. 6

    Dickinson, R. E. & Cicerone, R. J. Nature 319, 109–115 (1986).

  7. 7

    Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T. J. atmos. Sci. 32, 3–15 (1975).

  8. 8

    Hansen, J. et al. Geophys. Monogr. Ser. 29, 130–163 (1984).

  9. 9

    Hansen, J. et al. J. geophys. Res. 93, 9341–9364 (1988).

  10. 10

    Wigley, T. M. L. & Raper, S. C. B. Nature 344, 324–327 (1990).

  11. 11

    Hansen, J., Lacis, J. & Ruedy, R. in Climate Impact of Solar Variability, Conf. Publn 3086, 149–159 (NASA, Greenbelt, 1990).

  12. 12

    Rasmusson, E. M. Am. Sci. 73, 168–178 (1985).

  13. 13

    Dickinson, R. E. The Greenhouse Effect Climatic Change and Ecosystems, 206–270 (Wiley, New York, 1986).

  14. 14

    Mitchell, J. F. B. et al. Scientific Assessment of Climate Change Section 5 (World Meterological Organisation/United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva, in the press).

  15. 15

    Hansen, J., Lacis, A. & Prather, M. J. geophys. Res. 94, 16417–16421 (1989).

  16. 16

    Rowland, F. S. & Isaksen, I. S. A. The Changing Atmosphere (Wiley, New York, 1988).

  17. 17

    Lacis, A. A., Wuebbles, D. J. & Logan, J. A. J. geophys. Res. 95, 9971–9981 (1990).

  18. 18

    Shine, K. et al. Scientific Assessment of Climate Change Section 2 (World Meteorological Organisation/United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva, in the press).

  19. 19

    Luther, F. M. & Fouquart, Y. Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models. World Climate Prog. Rep. 93 (World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva, 1984).

  20. 20

    Hickey, J. R., Alton, B. M., Kyle, H. L. & Hoyt, D. Space Sci. Rev. 48, 321–342 (1988).

  21. 21

    Wilson, R. C. & Hudson, H. S. Nature 332, 810–812 (1988).

  22. 22

    Hansen, J. et al. Science 229, 857–859 (1985).

  23. 23

    Wigley, T. M. L. & Schlesinger, M. E. Nature 315, 649–652 (1985).

  24. 24

    Harvey, L. D. D. & Schneider, S. H. J. geophys. Res. 90, 2192–2205 (1985).

  25. 25

    Lean, J., Science 244, 197–200 (1989).

  26. 26

    Wetherald, R. T. & Manabe, S. J. atmos. Sci. 32, 2044–2059 (1975).

  27. 27

    Sofia, S., Demarque, P. & Endal, A. Am. Sci. 73, 326–333 (1985).

  28. 28

    Foukal, P. & Lean, J. Science 247, 556–558 (1990).

  29. 29

    Gough, D. The Solar Output and its Variations 451–474 (Coloardo Univ. Press, Boulder, 1977).

  30. 30

    Eddy, J. A. Science 192, 1189–1202 (1976).

  31. 31

    Wigley, T. M. L. & Kelly, P. M. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A330, 547–560 (1990).

  32. 32

    Seitz, F., Jastrow, R. & Nierenberg, W. A. Scientific Perspectives on the Greenhouse Problem (Marshall Institute, Washington, DC, 1989).

  33. 33

    Radick, R. R., Lockwood, G. W. & Baliunas, S. L. Science 247, 39–44 (1990).

  34. 34

    Hoyt, D. V. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 17, 429–458 (1979).

  35. 35

    Gilliland, R. L. Astrophys. J. 248, 1144–1155 (1981).

  36. 36

    Gilliland, R. L. Astrophys. J. 253, 399–405 (1982).

  37. 37

    Endal, A. S., Sofia, S. & Twigg, L. W. Astrophys. J. 290, 748–757 (1985).

  38. 38

    Damon, P. E. & Sonett, C. P. in The Sun in Time (Univ. Arizona Press, Tucson, in the press).

  39. 39

    Stuiver, M. & Braziunas, T. F. Nature 338, 405–408 (1989).

  40. 40

    Sparks, J. Life of Benjamin Franklin Vol. 6, 455–457 (Tappan & Dennett, Boston, 1844).

  41. 41

    Pollack, J. B. et al. Nature 263, 551–555 (1976).

  42. 42

    Keen, R. A. Science 222, 1011–1013 (1983).

  43. 43

    Hansen, J. E. & Matsushima, S. J. geophys. Res. 71, 1073–1081 (1966).

  44. 44

    Lamb, H. H. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A255, 425–533 (1970).

  45. 45

    Rasool, S. I. & Schneider, S. H. Science 173, 138–141 (1971).

  46. 46

    Bryson, R. A. Science 184, 753–760 (1974).

  47. 47

    Shaw, G. E. & Khalil, M. A. K. Handbook of Environmental Chemistry (ed. Hutzinger, O.) (Springer, Berlin, 1989).

  48. 48

    MacCracken, M. C., Cess, R. D. & Potter, G. L. J. geophys. Res. 90, 14445–14450 (1985).

  49. 49

    Hansen, J. E., Lacis, A. A., Lee, P. & Wang, W. C. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 338, 575–587 (1980).

  50. 50

    Jones, P. O., Wigley, T. M. L. & Wright, P. B. Nature 322, 430–434 (1986).

  51. 51

    Hansen, J. & Lebedeff, S. J. geophys. Res. 92, 13345–13372 (1987).

  52. 52

    Toon, O. B. & Pollack, J. B. J. appl. Met. 15, 225–246 (1976).

  53. 53

    Coakley, J. A. & Cess, R. D. J. atmos. Sci. 42, 1677–1692 (1985).

  54. 54

    Schwartz, S. E. Nature 336, 441–445 (1988); 340, 515–516 (1989).

  55. 55

    Twomey, S. J. phys. Chem. 84, 1459–1463 (1980).

  56. 56

    Twomey, S. & Wojciechowski, T. A. J. atmos. Sci. 26, 684–688 (1969).

  57. 57

    Conover, J. H. J. atmos. Sci. 23, 778–785 (1966).

  58. 58

    Hobbs, P. V., Radke, L. F. & Shumway, S. E. J. atmos. Sci. 27, 81–89 (1970).

  59. 59

    Coakley, J. A., Bernstein, R. L. & Durkee, P. A. Science 237, 1020–1022 (1987).

  60. 60

    Radke, L. F., Coakley, J. A. & King, M. D. Science 246, 1146–1149 (1989).

  61. 61

    Albrecht, B. A. Science 245, 1227–1230 (1989).

  62. 62

    Twomey, S. A., Peipgrass, M. & Wolfe, T. L. Tellus B36, 356–366 (1984).

  63. 63

    Kondratyev, K., Binenno, V. & Petrenchuk, O. Atmos. oceanic Phys. 17, 122–127 (1981).

  64. 64

    Angell, J. K., Korshover, J. & Cotton, G. F. J. Clim. appl. Met. 23, 752–761 (1984).

  65. 65

    Plantico, M. S., Karl, T. R., Kukla, G. & Gavin, J. J. geophys. Res. (in the press).

  66. 66

    Karl, T. R., Baldwin, R. G. & Burgin, M. G. NOAA Historical Climatology Ser. 4–5 (National Climate Data Center, Asheville, 1988).

  67. 67

    Hansen, J. et al. Coping with Climate Change 68–81 (Climate Institute, Washington, DC, 1989).

  68. 68

    Wigley, T. M. L. Nature 339, 365–367 (1989).

  69. 69

    Durkee, P. A. Atmos. Envir. (in the press).

  70. 70

    Henderson-Sellers, A. & Gornitz, V. Clim. Change 6, 231–257 (1984).

  71. 71

    Cess, R. D. et al. Science 245, 513–516 (1989).

  72. 72

    Chartson, R. J., Lovelock, J. E., Andrae, M. O. & Warren, S. G. Nature 326, 655–661 (1987).

  73. 73

    Mitchell, J. F. B., Senior, C. A. & Ingram, W. J. Nature 341, 132–134 (1989).

  74. 74

    Kerr, R. A. Science 246, 1118–1119 (1989).

  75. 75

    Lindzen, R. Bull. Am. met. Soc. 71, 288–299 (1990).

  76. 76

    Oort, A. H. & Rasmusson, E. M. Prof. Pap. NOAA 14 (1971).

  77. 77

    Raval, A. & Ramanathan, V. Nature 342, 758–761 (1989).

  78. 78

    Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J. & Shakleton, N. J. Science 194, 1121–1132 (1976).

  79. 79

    Harvey, L. D. D. Nature 334, 333–335 (1988).

  80. 80

    Shaw, G. E. Clim. Change 5, 297–303 (1983).

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

  1. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, New York, 10025, USA

    • James E. Hansen
    •  & Andrew A. Lacis

Authors

  1. Search for James E. Hansen in:

  2. Search for Andrew A. Lacis in:

About this article

Publication history

Issue Date

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1038/346713a0

Further reading

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.