Abstract
THIS is relevant to the Naval Conference. A letter in NATURE of May 18 was intended to show, by reference to historical facts, that a certain pair of equations did represent, at least crudely, the behaviour of nations prior and subsequent to the Great War. In order to proceed to deductions, it is convenient now to change the notation. The hypothesis aforesaid is that in which x denotes the variable preparedness for war of one group of nations, y that of the opposing group; t is the time; k and l are defence coefficients; and are fatigue-and-expense coefficients and g and h are measures of dissatisfaction with the results of treaties. Each of k, l, , , g, h is regarded as temporarily constant. Of these, k, l, , are each positive; but g and h may have either sign, and will be positive for the have-nots, negative for the haves. The international situation is thus represented by a point (x, y) in a plane. Let us think of this point as a particle moving in accordance with the equations. If the particle be tending towards plus infinity of both x and y, then war looms ahead. But if the particle be going in an opposite direction the prospect is peaceful.
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RICHARDSON, L. Mathematical Psychology of War. Nature 136, 1025 (1935). https://doi.org/10.1038/1361025a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/1361025a0
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