Virology articles within Nature Physics

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  • Article |

    Contact tracing is key to epidemic control, but network analysis now suggests that whom you infect may not be as pertinent a question as who infected you. Biases due to contact heterogeneity reveal the efficacy of backward over forward tracing.

    • Sadamori Kojaku
    • , Laurent Hébert-Dufresne
    •  & Yong-Yeol Ahn

  • Comment |

    The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.

    • Jonas L. Juul
    • , Kaare Græsbøll
    •  & Sune Lehmann

  • Perspective |

    This Perspective argues that an approach called extreme value theory is appropriate for understanding the so-called tail risk of epidemic outbreaks, in particular by demonstrating that the distribution of fatalities due to epidemic outbreaks over the past 2500 years is fat-tailed and dominated by extreme events.

    • Pasquale Cirillo
    •  & Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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