Featured
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Comment |
Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles
The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.
- Jonas L. Juul
- , Kaare Græsbøll
- & Sune Lehmann
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Perspective |
Tail risk of contagious diseases
This Perspective argues that an approach called extreme value theory is appropriate for understanding the so-called tail risk of epidemic outbreaks, in particular by demonstrating that the distribution of fatalities due to epidemic outbreaks over the past 2500 years is fat-tailed and dominated by extreme events.
- Pasquale Cirillo
- & Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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