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| Open AccessRipplocations provide a new mechanism for the deformation of phyllosilicates in the lithosphere
Phyllosilicate minerals are critical components of seismogenic fault, shear and subduction zones. Here, the authors provide a new deformation mechanism for phyllosilicates, based on newly discovered crystallographic defects in biotite (ripplocations), affecting our understanding of fault zone processes.
- Joe Aslin
- , Elisabetta Mariani
- & Michel W. Barsoum
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Article
| Open AccessDyke intrusion between neighbouring arc volcanoes responsible for 2017 pre-eruptive seismic swarm at Agung
Using seismic data and numerical modelling, here, the authors characterize the three-month period of unrest occurring prior to the 2017 Agung eruption (Bali, Indonesia). They observe a large uplift signal located at ~5 km from Agung summit corresponding to the emplacement of a 10 km deep magma intrusion between Agung edifice and Batur caldera, suggesting a potential magmatic connection between the two volcanic systems.
- Fabien Albino
- , Juliet Biggs
- & Devy Kamil Syahbana
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Article
| Open AccessAge and pattern of the southern high-latitude continental end-Permian extinction constrained by multiproxy analysis
The continental record of the end Permian mass extinction is limited, especially from high paleolatitudes. Here, Fielding et al. report a multi-proxy Permo-Triassic record from Australia, resolving the timing of local terrestrial plant extinction and the relationship with environmental changes.
- Christopher R. Fielding
- , Tracy D. Frank
- & James L. Crowley
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Article
| Open AccessEarthquake lubrication and healing explained by amorphous nanosilica
Tectonic faults weaken during slip in order to accelerate and produce earthquakes. Here the authors show a mechanism for weakening faults through the transformation of quartz to amorphous nanoparticulate wear powders that lubricate friction experiments, and transform back to quartz under geologic conditions.
- Christie D. Rowe
- , Kelsey Lamothe
- & Stefano Aretusini
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Article
| Open AccessA recent increase in global wave power as a consequence of oceanic warming
The upper-ocean warming, a consequence of anthropogenic global warming, is changing the global wave climate, making waves stronger. Here the author show that global wave power has been increasing and can represent a climate change indicator.
- Borja G. Reguero
- , Iñigo J. Losada
- & Fernando J. Méndez
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Article
| Open AccessHalf a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk
Climate extremes, exposure and vulnerability all contribute to global difference in heatwave risk. Here the authors investigated the inequality in global heatwave risk under both 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios and found that heatwave risk for the poor under 1.5 °C scenario exceeds that risk for the rich under 2 °C scenario.
- Simone Russo
- , Jana Sillmann
- & Brian O’Neill
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Article
| Open AccessBimodal seismicity in the Himalaya controlled by fault friction and geometry
There is increasing evidence that the seismicity of large Himalayan earthquakes can be bimodal, but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. Here, the authors present a model and show that the bimodal seismicity results from a relatively higher friction and a non-planar geometry of the Himalayan megathrust.
- Luca Dal Zilio
- , Ylona van Dinther
- & Jean-Philippe Avouac
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Article
| Open AccessThe gut microbiome is required for full protection against acute arsenic toxicity in mouse models
It is unclear whether the gut microbiome can mitigate or exacerbate arsenic toxicity. Here, Coryell et al. show that the human gut microbiome protects mice from arsenic-induced mortality, with protection levels correlating with the relative abundance of the human commensal Faecalibacterium.
- Michael Coryell
- , Mark McAlpine
- & Seth T. Walk
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Article
| Open AccessDegrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century
Permafrost thaw poses a serious threat to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here the authors show that most fundamental Arctic infrastructure and population will be at high hazard risk, even if the Paris Agreement target is achieved.
- Jan Hjort
- , Olli Karjalainen
- & Miska Luoto
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Article
| Open AccessLarge increase in global storm runoff extremes driven by climate and anthropogenic changes
Storm runoff extremes dominate flash flood formation and generation, posing a grand threat to ecosystems and communities across the world. Here the authors show that current projected response of these storm runoff extremes to climate and anthropogenic changes are underestimated.
- Jiabo Yin
- , Pierre Gentine
- & Shenglian Guo
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Article
| Open AccessMediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise
UNESCO World Heritage located in low-lying coastal areas is increasingly at risk from flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. This study shows that up to 82% of cultural World Heritage sites located in the Mediterranean will be at risk from coastal flooding and over 93% from coastal erosion by 2100 under high-end sea-level rise.
- Lena Reimann
- , Athanasios T. Vafeidis
- & Richard S. J. Tol
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence for magmatic carbon bias in 14C dating of the Taupo and other major eruptions
Correlations between prehistoric eruptions and other phenomena depend on accurate dating of the eruption. Here the authors show that magmatic CO2 in groundwater can bias radiocarbon ages for eruptions and that plateaux of carbon isotopic values in tree ring sequences biased by magmatic CO2 foreshadow major eruptions.
- Richard N. Holdaway
- , Brendan Duffy
- & Ben Kennedy
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Article
| Open AccessPowerful turbidity currents driven by dense basal layers
The structure of turbidity currents has remained unresolved mainly due to lack of observations. Here the authors present data from a high-resolution monitoring array deployed for 18 months over Monterey Bay, that suggests turbidity currents are driven by dense near-bed layers.
- Charles K. Paull
- , Peter J. Talling
- & Matthieu J. Cartigny
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Article
| Open AccessExacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models
A warmer and drier climate will affect wildfire activity but the climate-fire relationship could change under warming. Here the authors use models with a non-stationary climate-fire relationship to show that to avoid doubling the burned area in the coming decades we must stay below 1.5 °C Paris target.
- Marco Turco
- , Juan José Rosa-Cánovas
- & Antonello Provenzale
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Article
| Open AccessPredicting wave overtopping thresholds on coral reef-island shorelines with future sea-level rise
Sea-level rise will exacerbate wave overtopping on low-lying coral reef islands. Here the authors present a novel method that quantifies wave overtopping thresholds and associated reef-island vulnerability trajectories based on differences in local wave climate, reef morphology and island height.
- E. Beetham
- & P. S. Kench
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Article
| Open AccessSkin color-specific and spectrally-selective naked-eye dosimetry of UVA, B and C radiations
Current ultraviolet (UV) sensors cannot differentiate between UVA, B and C, each of which has a remarkably different impact on human health. Here the authors show spectrally-selective colorimetric monitoring of ultraviolet radiations by developing a photoelectrochromic ink that consists of a multiredox polyoxometalate and an e– donor.
- Wenyue Zou
- , Ana González
- & Vipul Bansal
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Article
| Open AccessHierarchical rupture growth evidenced by the initial seismic waveforms
The degree to which small and large earthquakes share the same rupture processes remains unknown. Here, the authors reveal earthquakes of magnitude 3–5 share almost identical growth processes shared, but while they are controlled by some characteristic structures, their final size remains unpredictable.
- Takashi Okuda
- & Satoshi Ide
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Article
| Open AccessDynamic earthquake rupture preserved in a creeping serpentinite shear zone
Creeping serpentinite shear zones may host large earthquakes, but direct evidence of frictional heating and rupture have been missing. Here, the authors demonstrate via laboratory experiments that earthquake ruptures can propagate through serpentinite shear zones shown by high-temperature reaction products.
- Matthew S. Tarling
- , Steven A. F. Smith
- & James M. Scott
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Article
| Open AccessBack to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake
Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of strain accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. Here, the authors reconstruct interseismic strain accumulation since the 1960 Chile earthquake, finding a transient evolution at decadal scale with implications for estimating the probability of future events.
- Daniel Melnick
- , Shaoyang Li
- & Zhiguo Deng
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Article
| Open AccessDynamic anticrack propagation in snow
Anticrack propagation in snow results from the mixed-mode failure and collapse of a buried weak layer and can lead to slab avalanches. Here, authors reproduce the complex dynamics of anticrack propagation observed in field experiments using a Material Point Method with large strain elastoplasticity.
- J. Gaume
- , T. Gast
- & C. Jiang
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Article
| Open AccessPersistent CO2 emissions and hydrothermal unrest following the 2015 earthquake in Nepal
Earthquakes rarely affect hydrothermal systems in non-magmatic context. Here the authors report outbursts of CO2 and hydrothermal disturbances triggered by the 2015 Nepal earthquake, revealing high sensitivity of Himalayan hydrothermal systems to co-, post- and possibly pre- seismic deformation.
- Frédéric Girault
- , Lok Bijaya Adhikari
- & Frédéric Perrier
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Review Article
| Open AccessControls on explosive-effusive volcanic eruption styles
Eruptive styles at a single volcano may transition from explosive to effusive behaviour (or vice versa) at any given time. This review examines the underlying controls on eruptive styles such as magma viscosity, degassing and conduit geometry at volcanoes with silicic compositions.
- Mike Cassidy
- , Michael Manga
- & Olivier Bachmann
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Article
| Open AccessSkilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions
Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years and fire forecasting is required for fire management strategies. Here the authors use seasonal climate models to provide skilful predictions of global fire activity.
- Marco Turco
- , Sonia Jerez
- & Antonello Provenzale
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Article
| Open AccessCrystal and melt inclusion timescales reveal the evolution of magma migration before eruption
Volatile contents in melt inclusions can be used to unravel magma migration and degassing. Here, the authors use olivine chronometry and melt inclusion data from the 2008 Llaima eruption and find that magma intrusion occurred 4 years before the eruption and reached a depth of 3–4 km, 6 months before the eruption.
- Dawn C. S. Ruth
- , Fidel Costa
- & Eliza S. Calder
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Article
| Open AccessReconstructing the sediment concentration of a giant submarine gravity flow
Giant submarine gravity flows are a key mechanism in global sediment transport, yet their properties remain enigmatic. Here, the authors reconstruct the properties of a historic giant submarine gravity flow from deposits across the seafloor.
- Christopher John Stevenson
- , Peter Feldens
- & David Mosher
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Article
| Open AccessCoherent modulation of the sea-level annual cycle in the United States by Atlantic Rossby waves
Changes in the sea-level annual cycle have a profound effect on the coast, yet little is known about their drivers. Here the authors show a considerable variability in the amplitude of the cycle along the United States Gulf and Southeast coasts and relate it to Atlantic Rossby waves.
- Francisco M. Calafat
- , Thomas Wahl
- & Eleanor Frajka-Williams
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Article
| Open AccessDynamic strain determination using fibre-optic cables allows imaging of seismological and structural features
Imaging the internal structure of faults remains challenging using conventional seismometers. Here, the authors use fibre-optic cables used for telecommunications to obtain strain data and identify faults and volcanic dykes in Iceland and suggest that fibre-optic cables could be used for hazard assessment.
- Philippe Jousset
- , Thomas Reinsch
- & Charlotte M. Krawczyk
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence of an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet sits atop an extensional rift system with volcano-like features, yet we do not know if any of these volcanoes are active, because identifying subglacial volcanism remains a challenge. Here, the authors find evidence in helium isotopes that a large volcanic heat source is emanating from beneath the fast-melting Pine Island Ice Glacier.
- Brice Loose
- , Alberto C. Naveira Garabato
- & Karen J. Heywood
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
Extreme sea levels are a flood risk along the world’s coastlines. Here the authors carry out probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels and show that for the present century coastal flood hazards will increase significantly along most of the global coastlines.
- Michalis I. Vousdoukas
- , Lorenzo Mentaschi
- & Luc Feyen
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Article
| Open AccessThe global flood protection savings provided by coral reefs
Coral reefs provide significant coastal protection from storms but they have experienced significant losses. Here the authors show that the annual damages from flooding would double globally without reefs and they quantify where reefs provide the most protection to people and property.
- Michael W. Beck
- , Iñigo J. Losada
- & Felipe Fernández
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Article
| Open AccessTrends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years
Flooding may cause loss of life and economic damage, therefore temporal changes need assessment. Here, the authors show that since 1870 there has been an increase in area inundated by floods in Europe, but a reduction in fatalities and economic losses, although caution that smaller floods remain underreported.
- Dominik Paprotny
- , Antonia Sebastian
- & Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
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Article
| Open AccessShallow magma diversions during explosive diatreme-forming eruptions
Shallow magmatic feeder systems in monogenetic volcanic fields may determine how a volcano erupts. Here, the authors use numerical modeling to show that explosive excavation and infilling of eruptive craters affects local stress states, with feedbacks controlling sites and depths of crater-forming explosions.
- Nicolas Le Corvec
- , James D. Muirhead
- & James D. L. White
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Article
| Open AccessConstant strain accumulation rate between major earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault
Accumulation of interseismic strain may now be constrained by satellite observations. Here, the authors show that strain accumulation rates on the North Anatolian Fault are constant for the interseismic period indicating that lower-crustal viscosities from postseismic studies are not representative.
- Ekbal Hussain
- , Tim J. Wright
- & Andrew Hooper
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Article
| Open AccessLonger and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century
Marine heatwaves are climatic extremes with devastating and long-term impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and aquaculture. Here the authors use a range of ocean temperature observations to identify significant increases in marine heatwaves over the past century.
- Eric C. J. Oliver
- , Markus G. Donat
- & Thomas Wernberg
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Article
| Open AccessBurned forests impact water supplies
Wildland fire seasons in the United States are getting longer, yet the impacts of fire on water availability at the regional scale are unclear. Here the authors show that fire increased annual river flow throughout the West, while prescribed burns in the subtropical Southeast had limited impact on river flow.
- Dennis W. Hallema
- , Ge Sun
- & Steven G. McNulty
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Article
| Open AccessA b map implying the first eastern rupture of the Nankai Trough earthquakes
Earthquakes generated from the Nankai Trough have caused much devastation over the years. Here, the authors present a b-value map for the Nankai Trough zone, where the Eastern part of the trough has lower b-values than the West, which may help to explain why the Eastern part tends to rupture first.
- K. Z. Nanjo
- & A. Yoshida
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Article
| Open AccessTimescales of water accumulation in magmas and implications for short warning times of explosive eruptions
Volatiles such as water play a key role in magma ascent and ultimately triggering explosive eruptions. Here, the authors show that water-rich melts with water concentrations of 6–9 wt.% can ascend rapidly to the surface over the timescales of hours to days with very short warning times.
- M. Petrelli
- , K. El Omari
- & D. Perugini
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Article
| Open AccessThermal influences on spontaneous rock dome exfoliation
Thermal triggering of rock exfoliation has long been discounted as relevant to the evolution of rock domes. Here, the authors documented and measured recent fracturing events in California, USA to show that hot summer periods can lead to thermal stresses and cause seemingly spontaneous rock exfoliation.
- Brian D. Collins
- , Greg M. Stock
- & Joel B. Smith
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Article
| Open AccessSubmarine slope failures due to pipe structure formation
There is a strong correlation between submarine slope failures and the occurrence of gas hydrates. Here, the authors use a combination of seismic data and numerical modelling to show that overpressure at the gas hydrate stability zone leads to potential destabilization of the slope and submarine landslides.
- Judith Elger
- , Christian Berndt
- & Wolfram H. Geissler
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Article
| Open AccessFreshwater lake to salt-water sea causing widespread hydrate dissociation in the Black Sea
Gas hydrates are maintained via a balance of temperature and pressure, if this changes then destabilization may occur. Here, the authors show instead that due to recent changes in the salinity of the sea water of the Black Sea, gas hydrates may become destabilized with widespread methane seepage.
- Vincent Riboulot
- , Stephan Ker
- & Gabriel Ion
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Article
| Open AccessProdigious submarine landslides during the inception and early growth of volcanic islands
As volcanic islands grow via subaerial shield-building and edifice growth, large submarine landslides occur. Here, the authors reconstruct the emergence of the Canary Islands via turbidites created by submarine landslides as the islands grew, showing that slides are multi-stage.
- James E. Hunt
- & Ian Jarvis
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Article
| Open AccessThe role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency
The reason for the decline in frequency of Atlantic major hurricanes since 2005 is still debated. Here the authors combine observations with model simulations to show that this decline is largely due to changes in the Atlantic ocean meridional overturning circulation.
- Xiaoqin Yan
- , Rong Zhang
- & Thomas R. Knutson
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Article
| Open AccessMicroscale cavitation as a mechanism for nucleating earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone
Earthquakes frequently occur in the brittle-ductile transition near the base of the seismogenic zone. Using shear experiments on calcite faults, here the authors show that microscale cavitation plays a role in controlling the brittle-ductile transition, and in nucleating earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone.
- Berend A. Verberne
- , Jianye Chen
- & Christopher J. Spiers
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Article
| Open AccessPhysical understanding of the tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship
Tropical cyclone intensity is commonly measured by both central pressure and maximum wind speed, yet the physical relationship between the two is not understood. Here the authors show that the central pressure is an intensity measure that depends on maximum wind speed and the product of storm size and background rotation rate.
- Daniel R. Chavas
- , Kevin A. Reed
- & John A. Knaff
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Article
| Open AccessVolcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt
The degree to which human societies have responded to past climatic changes remains unclear. Here, using a novel combination of approaches, the authors show how volcanically-induced suppression of Nile summer flooding led to societal unrest in Ptolemaic Egypt (305–30 BCE).
- Joseph G. Manning
- , Francis Ludlow
- & Jennifer R. Marlon
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Article
| Open AccessTropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa
El Niño tends to follow 2 years after volcanic eruptions, but the physical mechanism behind this phenomenon is unclear. Here the authors use model simulations to show that a Pinatubo-like eruption cools tropical Africa and drives westerly wind anomalies in the Pacific favouring an El Niño response.
- Myriam Khodri
- , Takeshi Izumo
- & Michael J. McPhaden
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Article
| Open AccessInitial pulse of Siberian Traps sills as the trigger of the end-Permian mass extinction
Although the mass end-Permian extinction is linked to large igneous provinces, its trigger remains unclear. Here, the authors propose that the abrupt change from flood lavas to sills resulted in the heating of sediments and led to the release of large-scale greenhouse gases to drive the end-Permian extinction.
- S. D. Burgess
- , J. D. Muirhead
- & S. A. Bowring