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| Open AccessAtlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast
AMOC-induced heat advection controls ocean temperature in the subtropical North Atlantic, drives year-to-year changes of basin-wide and coastal sea level, and accounts for 30-50% of flood days along the South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico coasts in 2015-2020.
- Denis L. Volkov
- , Kate Zhang
- & Dimitris Menemenlis
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| Open AccessPhysical state of water controls friction of gabbro-built faults
Earthquakes often originate along faults in the presence of hot and pressurized water. Experiments conducted on simulated faults reveal that the physical state of water (liquid, vapor or supercritical) controls the frictional resistance of faults.
- Wei Feng
- , Lu Yao
- & Giulio Di Toro
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal air pollution exposure and poverty
This study shows that 716 million of the world’s lowest income people live in areas with unsafe levels of air pollution, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. With limited access to healthcare, they are especially vulnerable.
- Jun Rentschler
- & Nadezda Leonova
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| Open AccessFuture increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
Storm severity indices of European winter storms in climate models show future increased storm losses in northwestern Europe, caused by changes in the location and intensity of storms, and increasing population.
- Alexander S. Little
- , Matthew D. K. Priestley
- & Jennifer L. Catto
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| Open AccessNew constraints on Ti diffusion in quartz and the priming of silicic volcanic eruptions
Titanium diffusion profiles in quartz record the duration of magmatic processes. Here, the authors use a novel way to constrain Ti diffusion coefficients and apply them to determine the time scales involved in the priming of volcanic eruptions.
- Andreas Audétat
- , Axel K. Schmitt
- & Yongjun Lu
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| Open AccessBlock-level vulnerability assessment reveals disproportionate impacts of natural hazards across the conterminous United States
Introduces a precise, machine-learning-based Socio-Economic-Infrastructure Vulnerability index for natural hazards that uncovers stark variations in vulnerability at the block level emphasizing crucial information for risk-informed decision making.
- Farnaz Yarveysi
- , Atieh Alipour
- & Hamid Moradkhani
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| Open AccessImportance of subsurface water for hydrological response during storms in a post-wildfire bedrock landscape
This study tracks changes in post-fire hydrology in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA, and finds that rapid infiltration and storage of subsurface water in burned catchments contributes to increased streamflow during storms.
- Abra Atwood
- , Madeline Hille
- & A. Joshua West
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Article
| Open AccessIncrease in Cape Verde hurricanes during Atlantic Niño
Atlantic Niño, the Atlantic counterpart of the Pacific El Niño, increases the likelihood of powerful hurricanes developing near the Cape Verde islands, elevating associated risks for the Caribbean islands and the U.S.
- Dongmin Kim
- , Sang-Ki Lee
- & Jason Dunion
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| Open AccessThe role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities
This study projects a significant increase in the frequency and duration of compound dry-hot extreme (CDHE) events in major U.S. cities during the 21st century. GHG-induced warming is the main driver, amplified by urban development.
- Mahshid Ghanbari
- , Mazdak Arabi
- & Ashley M. Broadbent
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| Open AccessInfluence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position
In this study, the authors use a global dataset of satellite-derived shoreline positions, and demonstrate that their interannual evolution is dominated by El Niño through its worldwide influence of sea level, river discharge and ocean waves
- Rafael Almar
- , Julien Boucharel
- & Fei-Fei Jin
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| Open AccessDemonstrating the value of beaches for adaptation to future coastal flood risk
This paper presents a method for quantifying the benefits of beaches in reducing storm and long-term coastal flood risk. This method can contribute to cost-effective decision-making on climate change adaptation in many of the world’s coasts.
- Alexandra Toimil
- , Iñigo J. Losada
- & Gonéri Le Cozannet
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| Open AccessComplex tsunamigenic near-trench seafloor deformation during the 2011 Tohoku–Oki earthquake
Striking spatial heterogeneity of the shallow rupture behaviour is revealed for the near-trench region in the 2011 Tohoku–Oki earthquake. Significant off-fault deformation is suggested to play a predominant role in near-trench tsunami excitation.
- Zhang Kai
- , Wang Yanru
- & Wu Ziyin
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| Open AccessLava dome cycles reveal rise and fall of magma column at Popocatépetl volcano
Satellite imagery enhanced with deep learning sheds light on the mechanisms driving lava dome construction-destruction cycles. Results suggest that gas retention and escape from the magma system control the dome and crater morphological evolution.
- Sébastien Valade
- , Diego Coppola
- & Servando De la Cruz-Reyna
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| Open AccessPorosity evolution of mafic crystal mush during reactive flow
In this study, the authors use a thermodynamically constrained model of melt-mush reaction to simulate the chemical, mineralogical, and physical consequences of reactive flow in a multi-component mush system.
- Matthew L. M. Gleeson
- , C. Johan Lissenberg
- & Paula M. Antoshechkina
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| Open AccessClimate-controlled submarine landslides on the Antarctic continental margin
Changes in climate preconditioned large-scale, recurrent Miocene to Pleistocene Antarctic submarine landslides through variations in biological productivity, ice proximity and ocean circulation, posing tsunami risk to Southern Hemisphere populations.
- Jenny A. Gales
- , Robert M. McKay
- & Zhifang Xiong
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| Open AccessIncreasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
This study shows that the occurrence frequency of global precipitation whiplash is projected to be ~2.6 times higher by the end of the 21st century compared to 1979–2019, with increasingly rapid and intense transitions between the two extremes.
- Xuezhi Tan
- , Xinxin Wu
- & Bingjun Liu
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| Open AccessFlood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns
This study presents a global analysis of the sensitivity of inundated areas and population exposure to varying flood event magnitudes globally for 1.2 million river reaches. The authors show that topography and drainage areas correlate with flood sensitivities as well as with societal behavior.
- Laura Devitt
- , Jeffrey Neal
- & Thorsten Wagener
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| Open AccessGlobal transportation infrastructure exposure to the change of precipitation in a warmer world
In this study, the authors report that nearly 88.4% of global road and railway assets will face a more frequent precipitation in mid-21st century. A safety factor for climate change adaptation is recommended during infrastructure design process.
- Kai Liu
- , Qianzhi Wang
- & Elco E. Koks
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| Open AccessRevised Minoan eruption volume as benchmark for large volcanic eruptions
The authors use seismic and sedimentology data to estimate the volume of the Minoan eruption. The results show that the Plinian phase contributed most to the distal tephra fall, and that the pyroclastic flow volume is significantly smaller than previously assumed.
- Jens Karstens
- , Jonas Preine
- & Christian Berndt
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| Open AccessDeep learning forecast of rainfall-induced shallow landslides
How much rain does it take to trigger a landslide? This work shows that deep learning can identify the driving forces that can cause rainfall induced landslides, opening up the possibility of forecasting landslide events over large areas
- Alessandro C. Mondini
- , Fausto Guzzetti
- & Massimo Melillo
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| Open AccessLaboratory earthquakes decipher control and stability of rupture speeds
Earthquake rupture speeds significantly impact seismic hazards. Here, authors report laboratory earthquake experiments reproducing early and stable subEshelby supershear ruptures, and unlocking the correlation between rupture speed and driving load.
- Peng Dong
- , Kaiwen Xia
- & Jean-Paul Ampuero
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| Open AccessThe most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves
The global risk of record-breaking heatwaves is assessed, with the most at-risk regions identified. It is shown that record-smashing events that currently appear implausible could happen anywhere as a result of climate change.
- Vikki Thompson
- , Dann Mitchell
- & Julia M. Slingo
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| Open AccessDueling dynamics of low-angle normal fault rupture with splay faulting and off-fault damage
Tectonic plates slide past each other along faults in the Earth’s crust. Here, the authors develop physics-based computer simulations of these earthquakes to study how, where and by which processes the crust moves during such events.
- J. Biemiller
- , A.-A. Gabriel
- & T. Ulrich
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| Open AccessThe potential for coral reef restoration to mitigate coastal flooding as sea levels rise
The capacity of coral reefs to keep pace with sea-level rise is central to their ability to continue to provide shoreline protection to vulnerable coastal communities. Here, the study shows that whereas restoration has the potential to minimize climate-change impacts, doing nothing will amplify them.
- Lauren T. Toth
- , Curt D. Storlazzi
- & Richard B. Aronson
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| Open AccessGlobal scale analysis on the extent of river channel belts
Here the authors present a global scale classification of river channel belt extents as a resource for improved ecosystem accounting and river behavior analysis. Moreover, the methods show advances in pattern recognition to define new global landform products.
- Björn Nyberg
- , Gijs Henstra
- & Juha Ahokas
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| Open AccessAdvancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations
The authors show that robust analyses of high-impact compound weather and climate events require many samples. Thus, they argue that large ensemble climate model simulations should be used to provide the best available information on climate risks.
- Emanuele Bevacqua
- , Laura Suarez-Gutierrez
- & Jakob Zscheischler
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| Open AccessThe fragmentation-induced fluidisation of pyroclastic density currents
Fragmentation-induced fluidization occurs in concentrated pyroclastic density currents where rapid particle breakage causes flow compaction and subsequent high pore fluid pressure, reducing friction and explaining their long runout.
- Eric C. P. Breard
- , Josef Dufek
- & Braden Walsh
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| Open AccessSeismic magnitude clustering is prevalent in field and laboratory catalogs
Clustering of earthquake magnitudes is actively debated. Here, the authors show statistically significant magnitude clustering present in many different field and laboratory catalogs at a wide range of spatial scales (mm to 1000 km).
- Q. Xiong
- , M. R. Brudzinski
- & J. C. Hampton
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| Open AccessHidden vulnerability of US Atlantic coast to sea-level rise due to vertical land motion
This study presents a 3,500 km vertical land motion map for the US Atlantic coast, showing that different land covers (from developed areas to wetlands) are losing elevation, with rates up to 3 mm per year.
- Leonard O. Ohenhen
- , Manoochehr Shirzaei
- & Matthew L. Kirwan
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| Open AccessFast and slow intraplate ruptures during the 19 October 2020 magnitude 7.6 Shumagin earthquake
The 19 Oct 2020 MW 7.6 Shumagin earthquake involved unprecedented source complexity with two fast ruptures straddling the megathrust and strong tsunami excitation from a long-duration upper plate thrust rupture undetected by seismic and geodetic data.
- Yefei Bai
- , Chengli Liu
- & Yoshiki Yamazaki
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| Open AccessElevation-dependent intensification of fire danger in the western United States
Elevation-dependent warming trends have been previously identified, but its effect on fire danger is still unclear. Here the authors show that there has been widespread increases in fire danger across the mountainous western US from 1979 to 2020 with most acute trends at high-elevation regions above 3000 m.
- Mohammad Reza Alizadeh
- , John T. Abatzoglou
- & Mojtaba Sadegh
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| Open Access2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake slip distribution controlled by fault geometry inherited from Independence dike swarm
Faults responsible for the 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest, California earthquake likely evolved through reactivation of pre-existing Independence dike swarm structures. The inherited rupture geometry strongly controlled the earthquake slip distribution.
- Johanna M. Nevitt
- , Benjamin A. Brooks
- & Brad T. Aagaard
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| Open AccessLitter accumulation and fire risks show direct and indirect climate-dependence at continental scale
Compiled data on litterfall and litter in eucalypt forests and woodlands for the Australian continent shows that litter mass can be robustly predicted using just three independent variables – time, aridity and litterfall quality
- Mark A. Adams
- & Mathias Neumann
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| Open AccessCoseismic fault sealing and fluid pressurization during earthquakes
This paper presents experimental evidence of thermal pressurization (TP) weakening of seismic faults, and suggests TP processes could be significantly promoted by wear-induced sealing during earthquakes even for relatively permeable faults.
- Lu Yao
- , Shengli Ma
- & Giulio Di Toro
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| Open AccessVariability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes
Climate projections at km-scale show that local hourly precipitation extremes in the UK become 4-times more frequent by 2070, while they do not intensify gradually with warming, but tend to cluster in time.
- Elizabeth J. Kendon
- , Erich M. Fischer
- & Chris J. Short
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| Open AccessUnintended consequences of combating desertification in China
This paper shows that desertification combating practices decline incomes of farmers and herders, and China needs to adapt its ecological programmes to address the impacts of climate change and create positive synergies to combat desertification.
- Xunming Wang
- , Quansheng Ge
- & Fahu Chen
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| Open AccessIncreasing countries’ financial resilience through global catastrophe risk pooling
This study finds that optimal global pooling generally provides greater financial resilience than optimal regional pooling and that both can significantly increase the risk diversification of the existing sovereign catastrophe risk pools.
- Alessio Ciullo
- , Eric Strobl
- & David N. Bresch
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| Open AccessThe role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent
Tropical cyclone Seroja was one of the first cyclones to strike near-equatorial regions of Indonesia and East Timor. The unusual cyclogenesis close to a land mass was due to “perfect storm” conditions associated with multiple wave interactions.
- Beata Latos
- , Philippe Peyrillé
- & Adrian J. Matthews
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| Open AccessVariation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change
This study shows that climate change is expected to result in a 41% increase in the frequency of lightning worldwide. This increase has the potential to amplify the risk of lightning-induced wildfires.
- Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón
- , Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez
- & Patrick Jöckel
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| Open AccessThe unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021
The 2021 unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave broke temperature records by extraordinary amounts. Impacts included hundreds of deaths, mass-mortalities of marine life, increased wildfires, reduced crop and fruit yields, and river flooding.
- Rachel H. White
- , Sam Anderson
- & Greg West
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| Open AccessGlacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major hazard to downstream populations. Here, the authors show that 15 million people globally are potentially exposed to GLOF impacts, with more than half of these living in India, Pakistan, Peru and China.
- Caroline Taylor
- , Tom R. Robinson
- & Matthew Westoby
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| Open AccessReef islands have continually adjusted to environmental change over the past two millennia
This study establishes that the magnitude of observed physical changes in coral reef islands over the period of recent global warming is not unprecedented, and islands have continually adjusted to environmental change over the past millennia.
- P. S. Kench
- , C. Liang
- & R. F. McLean
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Article
| Open AccessClimate teleconnections modulate global burned area
Here the authors find that climate teleconnections modulate ~53 % of the global burned area with both synchronous and lagged signals, and marked regional patterns, with the Tropical North Atlantic mode being the most relevant.
- Adrián Cardil
- , Marcos Rodrigues
- & Sergio de-Miguel
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| Open AccessInteraction between dry and hot extremes at a global scale using a cascade modeling framework
This study quantifies the scope, time scale, and physical mechanisms underlying the cascade effects of drying on heating and vice versa across the various ecosystems of the world.
- Sourav Mukherjee
- , Ashok Kumar Mishra
- & Dara Entekhabi
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| Open AccessGlobal droughts connected by linkages between drought hubs
This study shows prominent synchronous co-evolution of drought events in drought hubs in sub-tropical regions, influenced by sea surface temperature patterns and teleconnections. Such simultaneous occurrence of droughts may have detrimental impacts.
- Somnath Mondal
- , Ashok K. Mishra
- & Benjamin Cook
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| Open AccessQuantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes
Heat extremes have been growing at staggering rates with global warming. This study shows that temperature variability is key to explaining the highly heterogeneous trajectories of future extremes and their rapid intensification in many regions.
- Claudia Simolo
- & Susanna Corti
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| Open AccessA large-scale view of marine heatwaves revealed by archetype analysis
Here, the authors use an advanced data-mining method to show how “extreme modes” of large-scale climate variability, such as El Niño, can lead to devastating marine heatwaves.
- Christopher C. Chapman
- , Didier P. Monselesan
- & Bernadette M. Sloyan
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| Open AccessSeismic multi-hazard and impact estimation via causal inference from satellite imagery
This study presents the first rapid seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation system integrating advanced causal inference and remote sensing techniques, which jointly estimates regional-scale and high-resolution maps of seismic multi-hazards and building damage from InSAR imageries.
- Susu Xu
- , Joshua Dimasaka
- & Hae Young Noh
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Article
| Open AccessMagma recharge and mush rejuvenation drive paroxysmal activity at Stromboli volcano
Petrological studies along with volcano monitoring data relate the unusual 2019 explosive activity at Stromboli volcano (Italy) to deep magma recharges up to a few days prior the eruption and a direct link between deep and shallow magma reservoirs.
- Chiara Maria Petrone
- , Silvio Mollo
- & Mark Reagan