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River basin flood potential inferred using GRACE gravity observations at several months lead time

Nature Geoscience volume 7, pages 588–592 (2014)Cite this article

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Abstract

The wetness of a watershed determines its response to precipitation1,2,3, leading to variability in flood generation4. The importance of total water storage—which includes snow, surface water, soil moisture and groundwater—for the predisposition of a region to flooding is less clear, in part because such comprehensive observations are rarely available. Here we demonstrate that basin-scale estimates of water storage derived from satellite observations of time-variable gravity can be used to characterize regional flood potential and may ultimately result in longer lead times in flood warnings. We use a case study of the catastrophic 2011 Missouri River floods to establish a relationship between river discharge, as measured by gauge stations, and basin-wide water storage, as measured remotely by NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Applying a time-lagged autoregressive model of river discharge, we show that the inclusion of GRACE-based total water storage information allows us to assess the predisposition of a river basin to flooding as much as 5–11 months in advance. Additional case studies of flood events in the Columbia River and Indus River basins further illustrate that longer lead-time flood prediction requires accurate information on the complete hydrologic state of a river basin.

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Figure 1: GRACE water storage anomaly data for March 2011.
Figure 2: Observed river discharge versus GRACE TWSA.
Figure 3: Autoregressive model results.
Figure 4: Autoregressive model performance.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by grants from the NASA GRACE Science Team, from the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship program, from the University of California Office of the President, Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives, and from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF3269). We offer a special thanks to S. Swenson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research for GRACE data processing and early discussion.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. UC Center for Hydrologic Modeling, University of California, Irvine, California 92697, USA

    J. T. Reager, B. F. Thomas & J. S. Famiglietti

  2. Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California 92697, USA

    J. S. Famiglietti

  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, California 92697, USA

    J. S. Famiglietti

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  1. J. T. Reager
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Contributions

J.T.R. and J.S.F. conceived the project; J.T.R. designed the study, performed the data analysis and wrote the manuscript; B.F.T. advised on methods and interpretation; B.F.T. and J.S.F. assisted in writing the manuscript.

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Correspondence to J. T. Reager.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Reager, J., Thomas, B. & Famiglietti, J. River basin flood potential inferred using GRACE gravity observations at several months lead time. Nature Geosci 7, 588–592 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2203

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