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Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation

Nature Geoscience volume 6, pages 447–451 (2013)Cite this article

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An Addendum to this article was published on 27 June 2014

Abstract

Predicting the response of tropical rainfall to climate change remains a challenge1. Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide are expected to affect the hydrological cycle through increases in global mean temperature and the water vapour content of the atmosphere2,3,4. However, regional precipitation changes also closely depend on the atmospheric circulation, which is expected to weaken in a warmer world4,5,6. Here, we assess the effect of a rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on tropical circulation and precipitation by analysing results from a suite of simulations from multiple state-of-the-art climate models, and an operational numerical weather prediction model. In a scenario in which humans continue to use fossil fuels unabated, about half the tropical circulation change projected by the end of the twenty-first century, and consequently a large fraction of the regional precipitation change, is independent of global surface warming. Instead, these robust circulation and precipitation changes are a consequence of the weaker net radiative cooling of the atmosphere associated with higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, which affects the strength of atmospheric vertical motions. This implies that geo-engineering schemes aimed at reducing global warming without removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere would fail to fully mitigate precipitation changes in the tropics. Strategies that may help constrain rainfall projections are suggested.

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Figure 1: Multi-model mean projection of tropical precipitation changes at the end of the twenty-first century.
Figure 2: Interpretation of the multi-model mean regional pattern of tropical precipitation changes induced by a CO2 increase.
Figure 3: Response of the tropical atmospheric circulation to increased CO2 in a range of CMIP5 experiments.
Figure 4: Interpretation and timescale of the direct effect of CO2 on large-scale vertical motions.

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Acknowledgements

This work benefited from discussions with K. Emanuel, J-L. Dufresne, B. Stevens and T. Palmer, and from the technical help of J. Raciasek. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union, Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 244067(EUCLIPSE), the French CEP&S 2010 ANR project ClimaConf and the LEFE project Missterre. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups (listed in the Supplementary Information) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organisation for Earth System Science Portals.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 75252 Paris, France

    Sandrine Bony, Solange Fermepin & Sébastien Denvil

  2. CNRM/GAME, CNRS, Météo-France, 31057 Toulouse, France

    Gilles Bellon

  3. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, UK

    Daniel Klocke

  4. CCRC and Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia

    Steven Sherwood

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  1. Sandrine Bony
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Contributions

S.B. designed the study and performed the analysis. S.B. and S.S. wrote the paper. D.K. designed and performed ECMWF forecasts and contributed to the graphics. G.B. designed and performed single-column simulations, S.F. designed and performed short-term IPSL simulations, S.D. organized the retrieval of CMIP5 model outputs. All authors discussed the results and edited the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Sandrine Bony.

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Bony, S., Bellon, G., Klocke, D. et al. Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation. Nature Geosci 6, 447–451 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1799

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