Ecol. Lett. http://doi.org/msf (2013)

Ecological responses to climate change are a function of the local patterns of variability in weather and microclimate superimposed on global and regional changes in mean conditions. Modelling the combined effects of fine-scale climate variations on populations in a fragmented landscape may be important for the accurate prediction and conservation management of shifts in species range.

To investigate the importance of such high-resolution analysis, Jonathan Bennie from the University of Exeter, UK, and co-workers modelled the relationship between microclimate and population dynamics for a butterfly (Hesperia comma) and its northern range margin in the UK.

They find that the inclusion of dynamic microclimate information improved model accuracy in simulating observed changes in population density and patch occupancy. This study shows how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability can drive rates and patterns of range expansion through localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction.