Glob. Environ. Change. http://doi.org/h5b (2012)

Credit: © ISTOCKPHOTO/THINKSTOCK

Increased climate-related flood events and population and wealth growth in areas prone to flooding call for global flood-risk assessments. However, lack of global data and appropriate methods has hampered research.

Brenden Jongman of the Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and co-workers estimated for the first time the global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050. They assessed damage first on the basis of population density and then on the basis of land use. In the first case, they estimated a total global exposure of US$46 trillion in 2010, which they projected to increase to US$158 trillion in 2050. In the second case, they estimated a total global exposure of US$27 trillion in 2010, projected to increase to US$80 trillion in 2050.

For most regions of the world, growth of population and assets in flood-prone areas is found to be higher than overall growth, with the trend particularly strong in sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia.