Aggressive mitigation policy could halve the impacts of climate change on water resources by 2100.
Climate warming is expected to influence future water availability, supply and discharge through regional changes in precipitation and evaporation.
Nigel Arnell at the Walker Institute for Climate System Research at the University of Reading and colleagues used a global hydrological model to estimate the effect of an aggressive climate-mitigation policy compared with 'business-as-usual' emissions on two measures of water scarcity1. By 2050, a stringent mitigation scenario — consistent with EU climate targets — could reduce the impacts of climate change on water stress by as much as 21%, while inaction could worsen conditions for more than 20% of the global population by the end of the twenty-first century, the study found.
Even without the effects of climate change, as much as 40% of the world's population will be living under water-stressed conditions by 2020, the authors note.
References
Arnell, N. W., van Vuuren, D. P. & Isaac, M. The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources. Glob. Environ. Change 10.1016/j.gloevncha.2011.01.015 (2011).
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Franz-Valdeki, J. In scarce supply. Nature Clim Change (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1063
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1063
