As
floods devastated central Europe and Asia this summer, climate scientists
found themselves in great demand from journalists struggling to explain
the connections between recent catastrophic weather and expected long-term
changes in climate.
The
problem for climate scientists lies in determining whether recent events fall
outside natural variability: a single summer of excessive rainfall could be just
the 100-year or even 1000-year flood. But it is clear that water and climate are
and always have been intricately linked. Changes in climate are
likely to bring changes to the hydrological cycle the most important feedback
cycle in the Earth's climate system.
The oceans play the central role in this feedback loop
via heat storage and transport around the globe. Atmospheric water vapour
produces rainfall, and acts as the most important greenhouse gas. But
through the formation of clouds, water vapour also leads to the reflection
of sunlight back into space. And over geological time-scales, the waxing
and waning of ice sheets changes the reflection of the sun's light back
into space, and largely determines the sea level.
This web focus encompasses a specially commissioned Insight
on Climate and Water, together with a selection of recent articles handpicked
from the pages of Nature, all of which illuminate the connections
between climate and water in ice, oceans and atmosphere.
Climate and
water
A specially commisioned series of articles exploring the interactions
between climate and the hydrologic cycle in the past, present and future.
Scientific uncertainty: When doubt is a sure
thing JIM GILES
Is it possible to adopt a more rigorous approach to the communication
of scientific uncertainty? Jim Giles talks to the climatologists whose
pursuit of this goal has seen them dubbed the 'uncertainty cops'. Nature418, 476478 (2002); doi:10.1038/418476a
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Computer modelling: Our virtual planet ROBERT TRIENDL
Japan's Earth Simulator supercomputer could provide the most accurate
models yet of the planet's climate and geophysics but there are
obstacles to realizing that potential. Robert Triendl reports. Nature416, 579580 (2002); doi:10.1038/416579a
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Closing of the Indonesian seaway as a precursor
to east African aridification around 3-4 million years ago MARK A. CANE & PETER MOLNAR Nature411, 157162 (2001); doi:10.1038/35075500
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Climate change: The Indonesian valve JAMES D. WRIGHT
The behaviour of the North Atlantic is often invoked to explain the effects
of climate change. But for certain episodes, including perhaps a period
in human evolution, events elsewhere may have had a greater influence. Nature411, 142143 (2001); doi:10.1038/35075684
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The role of the thermohaline circulation in
abrupt climate change PETER U. CLARK, NICKLAS G. PISIAS, THOMAS F. STOCKER
& ANDREW J. WEAVER Nature415, 863869 (2002); doi:10.1038/415863a
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Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation
events in a changing climate T. N. PALMER & J. R�IS�NEN Nature415, 512514 (2002); doi:10.1038/415512a
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Increasing risk of great floods in a changing
climate P. C. D. MILLY, R. T. WETHERALD, K. A. DUNNE &
T. L. DELWORTH Nature415, 514517 (2002); doi:10.1038/415514a
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Climate science: The investment forecast REINER SCHNUR
New studies predict that the risk of extreme rainfall over Europe and
Asian monsoon regions is increasing, with more floods likely worldwide.
Such long-range forecasting is pushing at the limit of current climate
models. Nature415, 483484 (2002); doi:10.1038/415483a
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Scale dependence of bubble creation mechanisms
in breaking waves GRANT B. DEANE & M. DALE STOKES Nature418, 839844 (2002); doi:10.1038/nature00967
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Physical oceanography: Inside whitecaps MARK LOEWEN
Innovative experiments have provided new insights into how bubbles are
created by breaking waves. These findings might ultimately lead to more
accurate models of global climate. Nature418, 830 (2002); doi:10.1038/418830a
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Climatology: Contrails reduce daily temperature
range DAVID J. TRAVIS, ANDREW M. CARLETON & RYAN G.
LAURITSEN
A brief interval when the skies were clear of jets unmasked an effect
on climate. Nature418, 601 (2002); doi:10.1038/418601a
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Climate and atmospheric history of the past
420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica J. R. PETIT, J. JOUZEL, D. RAYNAUD, N. I. BARKOV,
J.-M. BARNOLA, I. BASILE, M. BENDER, J. CHAPPELLAZ, M. DAVIS, G. DELAYGUE,
M. DELMOTTE, V. M. KOTLYAKOV, M. LEGRAND, V. Y. LIPENKOV, C. LORIUS, L.
P�PIN, C. RITZ, E. SALTZMAN & M. STIEVENARD Nature399, 429436 (1999); doi:10.1038/20859
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Climate change: Cornucopia of ice core results BERNHARD STAUFFER Nature399, 412413 (1999); doi:10.1038/20807
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The great ice mystery JON COPLEY Nature408, 634636 (2000); doi:10.1038/35047263
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