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A Statistical Model to Predict Nonsurvival in Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia

Journal of Perinatology volume 22, pages 263–267 (2002)Cite this article

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive model using echocardiographic indices to identify nonsurvivors from survivors in preoperative patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH).

STUDY DESIGN: Eight cases of CDH, with a mortality rate of 38%, underwent echocardiographic study before surgical repair. Left ventricular mass (LVMASS) using the area–length method of Wyatt et al. and fractional shortening (FS) by M-mode measurements were determined.

RESULTS: We identified a nonlinear nonoverlapping distribution that predicted nonsurvivors from survivors, p=0.04. Multiple regression analysis demonstrated the quantity (LVMASS×FS)1/2 to be correlated with nonsurvival with a coefficient of determination r2=0.55. Comparison of the means of the quantity (LVMASS×FS)1/2 for the two groups suggested two distinct populations, p=0.04.

CONCLUSION: The mathematical quantity (LVMASS×FS)1/2 calculated from echocardiographic measurements obtained preoperatively in babies with CDH may predict nonsurvival despite maximal intervention.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Pediatrics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA

    Shelley Cypher Springer MD, MBA, MSc

  2. Department of Pediatrics, Division of Cardiology, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA

    Dawn Fleming & Thomas C Hulsey MSPH, ScD

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  1. Shelley Cypher Springer MD, MBA, MSc
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  2. Dawn Fleming
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  3. Thomas C Hulsey MSPH, ScD
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Cypher Springer, S., Fleming, D. & Hulsey, T. A Statistical Model to Predict Nonsurvival in Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia. J Perinatol 22, 263–267 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.jp.7210681

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