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Future climate-zone shifts are threatening steep-slope agriculture

Nature Food volume 3, pages 193–196 (2022)Cite this article

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Abstract

Steep-slope agricultural systems are important for food production worldwide. Here we provide a high-resolution global map of steep-slope agricultural landscapes and their spatial distribution in the Köppen–Geiger climate zones for the present day (1980–2016) and future (2071–2100) scenarios. Our analysis demonstrates that steep-slope agricultural areas are much more affected by shifting climate zones than average global agricultural lands, especially by the expansion of arid zones.

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Fig. 1: Global distribution of steep-slope agricultural landscapes (yellow pixels, code provided in the source data).
Fig. 2: The distribution of global steep-slope agricultural landscapes in present-day (1980–2016) and future (2071–2100) scenarios.

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Data availability

All the data that support this study are available on GitHub at https://github.com/ptarolli/NatFood; the present and future Köppen–Geiger climate classification maps source dataset is available at http://www.gloh2o.org/koppen/. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The Google Earth Engine code produced in this study is provided in the source data for Fig. 1 and is deposited on GitHub (https://github.com/ptarolli/NatFood) for free use and distribution.

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Acknowledgements

This study was partly supported by University of Padova research projects ‘ViTE – Vineyard terraced landscapes: understanding the environmental constraints to improve sustainable management’ (DALL_FINAC_P14_02) and ‘Analysis of erosion and water stagnation in the agricultural context’ (DOR2180998/21), and by the project SOiLUTION SYSTEM ‘Innovative solutions for soil erosion risk mitigation and a better management of vineyards in hilly and mountain landscapes’, within Programma di Sviluppo Rurale per il Veneto 2014-2020 (Regione del Veneto).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Legnaro, Italy

    Wendi Wang, Anton Pijl & Paolo Tarolli

Authors
  1. Wendi Wang
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  2. Anton Pijl
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  3. Paolo Tarolli
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Contributions

P.T. conceived and designed the research. W.W. and A.P. performed the data analysis and produced the figures. P.T. and W.W. wrote the first draft of the manuscript, and all the authors reviewed and edited the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Paolo Tarolli.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Peer review information

Nature Food thanks the anonymous reviewers for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Table - Overview of steep-slope agricultural heritage sites by UNESCO and FAO.

Reporting Summary.

Source data

Source Data Fig. 1

Source code for Fig. 1 to be used in the Google Earth Engine.

Source Data Fig. 1

Source data shape file, related to the 50 steep cultivated landscapes protected and recognized as heritage sites by UNESCO and FAO, to be used in GIS to set up Fig. 1; these data, in addition to the file related to steep-slope agriculture, will be uploaded on GitHub at https://github.com/ptarolli/NatFood.

Source Data Fig. 2

Source of two pie charts summarizing the distribution of global steep-slope agricultural landscapes; for the climate shift raster file please refer to the open source dataset of Beck et al.17.

Source Data Fig. 2

Source data to be used in GIS to set up the small map in Fig. 2, showing where in the world the main climate classes (for example tropical, arid, etc.) have shifted (red zones); these data will be uploaded on GitHub at https://github.com/ptarolli/NatFood. For the GIS data related to present and future Köppen–Geiger climate classification maps the source dataset is available at http://www.gloh2o.org/koppen/.

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Wang, W., Pijl, A. & Tarolli, P. Future climate-zone shifts are threatening steep-slope agriculture. Nat Food 3, 193–196 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00454-y

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