The past 35 years have seen Bayesian models applied to many areas of the cognitive and brain sciences, which suggests that reasoning and decision-making may be rational. Wishful thinking provides a serious challenge, as it questions a core assumption of Bayesian belief updating. Melnikoff and Strohminger develop a Bayesian model that uses affective prediction errors and meets this challenge.
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Oaksford, M. Bayes versus bias in human reasoning. Nat Hum Behav 8, 628–629 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-01823-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-01823-w