Abstract
In 1960, the giant Valdivia earthquake (moment magnitude, Mw, 9.5), the largest earthquake ever recorded, struck the Chilean subduction zone, rupturing the entire depth of the seismogenic zone and extending for 1,000 km along strike. The first sign of new seismic energy release since 1960 occurred in 2017 with the Melinka earthquake (Mw 7.6), which affected only a portion of the deepest part of the seismogenic zone. Despite the recognition that rupture characteristics and rheology vary with depth, the mechanical controls behind such variations of earthquake size remain elusive. Here we build quasi-dynamic simulations of the seismic cycle in southern Chile including frictional and viscoelastic properties, drawing upon a compilation of geological and geophysical insights to explain the recurrence times of recent, historic, and palaeoseismic earthquakes and the distribution of fault slip and crustal deformation associated with the Melinka and Valdivia earthquakes. We find that the frictional and rheological properties of the forearc, which are primarily controlled by the geological structure and fluid distribution at the megathrust, govern the magnitude and recurrence patterns of earthquakes in Chile.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$29.99 / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 print issues and online access
$259.00 per year
only $21.58 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The GPS data that support the findings of this study are available in the GNSS data repository of the Centro Sismologico Nacional, Chile (http://gps.csn.uchile.cl/data/). Uplift data after the Valdivia earthquake can be found at ref. 8 (https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1970)81[1001:MOTCEO]2.0.CO;2). Data of intertidal biotic indicators were obtained from ref. 50 (https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1970)81[1001:MOTCEO]2.0.CO;2). Thermal model, coseismic slip model and quasi-dynamic input files to be run using Unicycle are uploaded to https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8435744. Specific results from the quasi-dynamic simulations are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Code availability
Quasi-dynamic simulations were computed using the code Unicycle5,85 (https://bitbucket.org/sbarbot/unicycle/src/master/). The code to process quasi-dynamic results is available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
References
Lay, T. et al. Depth-varying rupture properties of subduction zone megathrust faults. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 117, B04311 (2012).
Scholz, C. H. Earthquakes and friction laws. Nature 391, 37–42 (1998).
Saffer, D. M. & Tobin, H. J. Hydrogeology and mechanics of subduction zone forearcs: fluid flow and pore pressure. Annu Rev. Earth Planet Sci. 39, 157–186 (2011).
Qiu, Q. & Barbot, S. Tsunami excitation in the outer wedge of global subduction zones. Earth Sci. Rev. 230, 104054 (2022).
Barbot, S. Frictional and structural controls of seismic super-cycles at the Japan trench. Earth Planets Space 72, 63 (2020).
Lay, T. The surge of great earthquakes from 2004 to 2014. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 409, 133–146 (2015).
Ye, L., Lay, T., Kanamori, H., Yamazaki, Y. & Cheung, K. F. The 22 July 2020 Mw 7.8 Shumagin seismic gap earthquake: partial rupture of a weakly coupled megathrust. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 562, 116879 (2021).
Plafker, G. & Savage, J. C. Mechanism of the Chilean earthquakes of May 21 and 22, 1960. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 81, 1001–1030 (1970).
Ruiz, S. et al. Reawakening of large earthquakes in south central Chile: the 2016 Mw 7.6 Chiloé event. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 6633–6640 (2017).
Quiero, F., Tassara, A., Iaffaldano, G. & Rabbia, O. Growth of Neogene Andes linked to changes in plate convergence using high-resolution kinematic models. Nat. Commun. 13, 1339 (2022).
Hayes, G. P. et al. Slab2, a comprehensive subduction zone geometry model. Science 362, 58–61 (2018).
Lange, D. et al. Seismicity and geometry of the South Chilean subduction zone (41.5° S–43.5° S): implications for controlling parameters. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L06311 (2007).
Bohm, M. et al. The southern Andes between 36° and 40° S latitude: seismicity and average seismic velocities. Tectonophysics 356, 275–289 (2002).
Contreras-Reyes, E., Flueh, E. R. & Grevemeyer, I. Tectonic control on sediment accretion and subduction off south central Chile: implications for coseismic rupture processes of the 1960 and 2010 megathrust earthquakes. Tectonics 29, TC6018 (2010).
Bangs, N. L. et al. Basal accretion along the South Central Chilean margin and its relationship to great earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 125, e2020JB019861 (2020).
Maksymowicz, A., Montecinos-Cuadros, D., Díaz, D., Segovia, M. J. & Reyes, T. Forearc density structure of the overriding plate in the northern area of the giant 1960 Valdivia earthquake. Solid Earth 13, 117–136 (2022).
Maksymowicz, A. et al. Deep structure of the continental plate in the South-Central Chilean margin: metamorphic wedge and implications for megathrust earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 126, e2021JB021879 (2021).
Scherwath, M. et al. Deep lithospheric structures along the southern central Chile margin from wide-angle P-wave modelling. Geophys. J. Int. 179, 579–600 (2009).
Tassara, A. & Echaurren, A. Anatomy of the Andean subduction zone: three-dimensional density model upgraded and compared against global-scale models. Geophys. J. Int. 189, 161–168 (2012).
Krawczyk, C. M. et al. in The Andes (eds Oncken, O. et al.) 171–192 (Springer, 2006); https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-48684-8_8
Dzierma, Y. et al. Seismic velocity structure of the slab and continental plate in the region of the 1960 Valdivia (Chile) slip maximum—insights into fluid release and plate coupling. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.02.006 (2012).
Echaurren, A. et al. Fore-to-retroarc crustal structure of the North Patagonian margin: how is shortening distributed in Andean-type orogens?. Glob. Planet. Change 209, 103734 (2022).
Cembrano, J., Hervé, F. & Lavenu, A. The Liquiñe Ofqui fault zone: a long-lived intra-arc fault system in southern Chile. Tectonophysics 259, 55–66 (1996).
Barbot, S. Slow-slip, slow earthquakes, period-two cycles, full and partial ruptures, and deterministic chaos in a single asperity fault. Tectonophysics 768, 228171 (2019).
Kukowski, N. & Oncken, O. in The Andes (eds Oncken, O. et al.) 217–236 (Springer, 2006); https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-48684-8_10
Genge, M. C. et al. The role of slab geometry in the exhumation of Cordilleran-type orogens and their forelands: insights from northern Patagonia. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 133, 2535–2548 (2021).
Melnick, D. & Echtler, H. P. Inversion of forearc basins in south-central Chile caused by rapid glacial age trench fill. Geology 34, 709–712 (2006).
Adriasola, A. C., Thomson, S. N., Brix, M. R., Hervé, F. & Stöckhert, B. Postmagmatic cooling and late Cenozoic denudation of the North Patagonian Batholith in the Los Lagos region of Chile, 41°–42° 15′ S. Int. J. Earth Sci. 95, 504–528 (2006).
Tembe, S., Lockner, D. A. & Wong, T.-F. Effect of clay content and mineralogy on frictional sliding behavior of simulated gouges: Binary and ternary mixtures of quartz, illite, and montmorillonite. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jb006383 (2010).
den Hartog, S. A. M., Niemeijer, A. R. & Spiers, C. J. New constraints on megathrust slip stability under subduction zone P–T conditions. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.08.022353, 240-252 (2012).
Behrmann, J. H. & Kopf, A. Balance of tectonically accreted and subducted sediment at the Chile triple junction. Int. J. Earth Sci. 90, 753–768 (2001).
Liu, Y. & Rice, J. R. Slow slip predictions based on granite and gabbro friction data compared to GPS measurements in northern Cascadia. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jb006142 (2009).
Melnick, D. et al. Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake. Nat. Commun. 9, 3527 (2018).
Angiboust, S., Wolf, S., Burov, E., Agard, P. & Yamato, P. Effect of fluid circulation on subduction interface tectonic processes: insights from thermo-mechanical numerical modelling. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 357–358, 238–248 (2012).
Okazaki, K. & Katayama, I. Slow stick slip of antigorite serpentinite under hydrothermal conditions as a possible mechanism for slow earthquakes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 1099–1104 (2015).
Takahashi, M. et al. On the transient response of serpentine (antigorite) gouge to stepwise changes in slip velocity under high‐temperature conditions. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jb008062 (2011).
Moore, D. E. & Lockner, D. A. Frictional strengths of talc‐serpentine and talc‐quartz mixtures. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jb007881 (2011).
Schwartz, S. et al. Pressure–temperature estimates of the lizardite/antigorite transition in high pressure serpentinites. Lithos https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lithos.2012.11.023 (2013).
Saffer, D. M. & Wallace, L. M. The frictional, hydrologic, metamorphic and thermal habitat of shallow slow earthquakes. Nat. Geosci. 8, 594–600 (2015).
Moreno, M. et al. Chilean megathrust earthquake recurrence linked to frictional contrast at depth. Nat. Geosci. 11, 285–290 (2018).
Araya, R., Cárcamo, C. & Poza, A. H. A stabilized finite element method for the Stokes–Temperature coupled problem. Appl. Numer. Math. 187, 24–49 (2023).
Spinelli, G. A., Wada, I., He, J. & Perry, M. The thermal effect of fluid circulation in the subducting crust on slab melting in the Chile subduction zone. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 434, 101–111 (2016).
Völker, D., Grevemeyer, I., Stipp, M., Wang, K. & He, J. Thermal control of the seismogenic zone of southern central Chile. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 116, B10305 (2011).
Karato, S.-I. & Jung, H. Effects of pressure on high-temperature dislocation creep in olivine. Philos. Mag. https://doi.org/10.1080/0141861021000025829 (2010).
Masuti, S., Barbot, S. D., Karato, S.-I., Feng, L. & Banerjee, P. Upper-mantle water stratification inferred from observations of the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake. Nature 538, 373–377 (2016).
Wada, I., Rychert, C. A. & Wang, K. Sharp thermal transition in the forearc mantle wedge as a consequence of nonlinear mantle wedge flow. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L13308 (2011).
Erickson, B. A. et al. The community code verification exercise for Simulating Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS). Seismol. Res. Lett. 91, 874–890 (2020).
Weiss, J. R. et al. Illuminating subduction zone rheological properties in the wake of a giant earthquake. Sci. Adv. 5, eaax6720 (2019).
Luo, H. & Wang, K. Postseismic geodetic signature of cold forearc mantle in subduction zones. Nat. Geosci. 14, 104–109 (2021).
Garrett, E., Brader, M., Melnick, D., Bedford, J. & Aedo, D. First field evidence of coseismic land-level change associated with the 25 December 2016 Mw 7.6 Chiloé, Chile, earthquake. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 109, 87–98 (2019).
Wils, K. et al. Seismo-turbidites in Aysén Fjord (southern Chile) reveal a complex pattern of rupture modes along the 1960 megathrust earthquake segment. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 125, e2020JB019405 (2020).
Moernaut, J. et al. Larger earthquakes recur more periodically: new insights in the megathrust earthquake cycle from lacustrine turbidite records in South-Central Chile. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 481, 9–19 (2018).
Cifuentes, I. L. The 1960 Chilean earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 94, 665–680 (1989).
Krawczyk, C. Amphibious seismic survey images plate interface at 1960 Chile Earthquake. Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 84, 301–305 (2003).
Ho, T.-C., Satake, K., Watada, S. & Fujii, Y. Source estimate for the 1960 Chile earthquake from joint inversion of geodetic and transoceanic tsunami data. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 124, 2812–2828 (2019).
Hocking, E. P., Garrett, E., Aedo, D., Carvajal, M. & Melnick, D. Geological evidence of an unreported historical Chilean tsunami reveals more frequent inundation. Commun. Earth Environ. 2, 245 (2021).
Kempf, P., Moernaut, J. & De Batist, M. Bimodal recurrence pattern of tsunamis in south-central Chile: a statistical exploration of paleotsunami data. Seismol. Res. Lett. 90, 194–202 (2019).
Luo, H. & Wang, K. Finding simplicity in the complexity of postseismic coastal uplift and subsidence following great subduction earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jb024471 (2022).
Becerra-Carreño, V., Crempien, J. G. F., Benavente, R. & Moreno, M. Plate-locking, uncertainty estimation and spatial correlations revealed with a Bayesian model selection method: application to the central Chile subduction zone. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 127, e2021JB023939 (2022).
Moreno, M. S., Bolte, J., Klotz, J. & Melnick, D. Impact of megathrust geometry on inversion of coseismic slip from geodetic data: application to the 1960 Chile earthquake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, 16310 (2009).
Yu, H., Liu, Y., Yang, H. & Ning, J. Modeling earthquake sequences along the Manila subduction zone: effects of three-dimensional fault geometry. Tectonophysics 733, 73–84 (2018).
Condit, C. B., Guevara, V. E., Delph, J. R. & French, M. E. Slab dehydration in warm subduction zones at depths of episodic slip and tremor. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116601 (2020).
Hernández-Uribe, D., Palin, R. M., Cone, K. A. & Cao, W. Petrological implications of seafloor hydrothermal alteration of subducted mid-ocean ridge basalt. J. Petrol. 61, egaa086 (2021).
Maldonado, V., Contreras, M. & Melnick, D. A comprehensive database of active and potentially-active continental faults in Chile at 1:25,000 scale. Sci. Data 8, 20 (2021).
Melnick, D., Bookhagen, B., Strecker, M. R. & Echtler, H. P. Segmentation of megathrust rupture zones from fore-arc deformation patterns over hundreds to millions of years, Arauco peninsula, Chile. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 114, 1407 (2009).
GEBCO Compilation Group GEBCO 2023 Grid (National Oceanic Centre & British Oceanographic Data Centre, 2023); https://doi.org/10.5285/836f016a-33be-6ddc-e053-6c86abc0788e
NASA EOSDIS Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Global 1 Arc Second. NASA JPL https://doi.org/10.5067/MEaSUREs/SRTM/SRTMGL1.003 (2013).
Lapusta, N. & Rice, J. R. Nucleation and early seismic propagation of small and large events in a crustal earthquake model. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 108, 2205 (2003).
Barbot, S. Modulation of fault strength during the seismic cycle by grain-size evolution around contact junctions. Tectonophysics 765, 129–145 (2019).
Dieterich, J. H. & Kilgore, B. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 93, 3787–3794 (1996).
Dieterich, J. H. Modeling of rock friction 1. experimental results and constitutive equations. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 84, 2161–2168 (1979).
Marone, C. Laboratory-derived friction laws and their application to seismic faulting. Annu Rev. Earth Planet Sci. 26, 643–696 (1998).
Bürgmann, R. The geophysics, geology and mechanics of slow fault slip. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 495, 112–134 (2018).
Kozdon, J. E. & Dunham, E. M. Rupture to the trench: dynamic rupture simulations of the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 103, 1275–1289 (2013).
Rubin, A. M. & Ampuero, J. P. Earthquake nucleation on (aging) rate and state faults. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 110, 1–24 (2005).
Hirth, G. & Kohlstedt, D. Rheology of the upper mantle and the mantle wedge: a view from the experimentalists. Geophys. Monogr. Ser. 138, 83–105 (2004).
Barbot, S., Moore, J. D. P. & Lambert, V. Displacement and stress associated with distributed anelastic deformation in a half-space. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 107, 821–855 (2017).
Muto, J. et al. Coupled afterslip and transient mantle flow after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Sci. Adv. 5, eaaw1164 (2019).
Marotta, G. S. A., França, G. S., Galera Monico, J. F., Fuck, R. A. & Oswaldo de Araújo Filho, J. Strain rate of the South American lithospheric plate by SIRGAS-CON geodetic observations. J. South Am. Earth Sci. 47, 136–141 (2013).
van Keken, P. E. et al. A community benchmark for subduction zone modeling. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 171, 187–197 (2008).
Peacock, S. M. & Wang, K. On the stability of talc in subduction zones: a possible control on the maximum depth of decoupling between the subducting plate and mantle wedge. Geophys. Res. Lett. 48, e2021GL094889 (2021).
Turcotte, D. & Schubert, G. Geodynamics (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014); https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511843877
Tebbens, S. F. & Cande, S. C. Southeast pacific tectonic evolution from early oligocene to present. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 102, 12061–12084 (1997).
Tassara, A. Control of forearc density structure on megathrust shear strength along the Chilean subduction zone. Tectonophysics 495, 34–47 (2010).
Barbot, S. Asthenosphere flow modulated by megathrust earthquake cycles. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 6018–6031 (2018).
Phillips, N. J., Belzer, B., French, M. E., Rowe, C. D. & Ujiie, K. Frictional strengths of subduction thrust rocks in the region of shallow slow earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 125, e2019JB018888 (2020).
Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the National Agency of Research and Development (ANID-Human Resources Branch/National Doctorate/2021) (J.J.), the Millennium Scientific Initiative (ICM) grant NC160025 ‘CYCLO—the seismic cycle along subduction zones’ (A.T., J.J.). R.A. acknowledges funding from the Centro de Modelamiento Matemático (FB210005) of the PIA Program: Concurso Apoyo a Centros Científicos y Tecnológicos de Excelencia con Financiamiento Basal (ANID-Chile). S.B. acknowledges funding from the National Science Foundation under award number EAR-1848192. J.G.F.C. has been supported by Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN), Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID)/Fondo de Financiamiento de Centros de Investigación en Áreas Prioritarias (FONDAP)/1522ª0005 and acknowledges support from ANID/Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico (FONDECYT)/11201180. M.M. acknowledges support from ICN12019N Instituto Milenio de Oceanografía and FONDECYT 1221507 and CIGIDEN (FONDAP)/1522ª0005.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
J.J., S.B., M.M. and A.T. conceived the original idea, which was elaborated with J.G.F.C. and R.A. Quasi-dynamic numerical simulations were performed by J.J. using the numerical code of S.B. N.C. and R.A. made the thermal model, V.B-C. and J.G.F.C. computed the coseismic slip model. J.J. compiled the geophysical and structural data to then build the representative cross section. J.J. estimated the pressure–temperature path along plate interface. The paper was written by J.J. and S.B. with comments of M.M., A.T., J.G.F.C. and R.A.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Peer review
Peer review information
Nature Geoscience thanks Mohamed Chlieh, Muriel Gerbault and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editors: Stefan Lachowycz and Alison Hunt, in collaboration with the Nature Geoscience team.
Additional information
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Extended data
Extended Data Fig. 1 Temperature distribution, mesh, and pressure-temperature path.
a) black arrow denotes the convective asthenosphere flux. Purple curves are contours of the Vp/Vs value21. Triangles are the mesh used for the continental and oceanic mantle. b) Gray dashed lines are the limits of metamorphic facies for a metapelite rock62. LB = Lawsonite Blueschist, epB = Epidote Blueschist, Amph = Amphibolite, G = Greenschist, PP = Prehnite-Pumpellyite, E = Eclogite. Intraplate and Interplate refer to the location of the interseismic seismicity.
Extended Data Fig. 3 Root mean squared error values for systematic variation on λ.
In the left column are plotted RMSE values with respect to the surface deformation obtained from GNSS data of Melinka and Valdivia earthquakes. In the right column are plotted RMSE values with respect to the median value of great and large earthquakes obtained from the paleoseismic record. Red squares are the models in which the λ value is changed in the Upper Seismogenic Zone. Blue dots are the models in which the λ value is changed in the Lower Seismogenic Zone. Creeping zone in c) refers to the Metamorphic Belt and Serpentinized Mantle Wedge segments. Light blue diamonds are the models in which the λ value is changed in the Creeping Zone domain.
Extended Data Fig. 4 Effects of petrology and depth of the end of the seismogenic zone.
In a) the gray curve is the median coseismic slip for great ruptures from the preferred model. The blue curve is the median coseismic slip for great ruptures from a model in which the Upper and Lower Seismogenic Zone are controlled by the frictional behavior of altered basalt (a – b and μ0 are obtained from ref. 86 while the rest of frictional parameters are the same as the preferred model in Table 1). The red curve is the median coseismic slip for great ruptures from the initial model. In b) gray and green curves show the median coseismic slip for great ruptures in which the end of the seismogenic zone is increased. Isotherm in b) is obtained from our computed thermal distribution. Gray and green dashed curves mark the depth in which ends the seismogenic zone for each model. Error bars in data of Plafker and Savage are reported as mean errors as function of the methodology in which uplift was measured. In c) the red curve is the interpolation at 43° S of the 3D coseismic slip model from ref. 40. Gray and green curves are the mean coseismic slip distribution for large ruptures, with the same changes in the end of the seismogenic zone as b).
Extended Data Fig. 5 Time series of the east and vertical components of the synthetic gps from our model.
We select the same time interval from Fig. 3. Red triangles mark the position of the volcanic arc.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Julve, J., Barbot, S., Moreno, M. et al. Recurrence time and size of Chilean earthquakes influenced by geological structure. Nat. Geosci. 17, 79–87 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01327-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01327-8
This article is cited by
-
Triggers of Chile’s mega-earthquakes
Nature Geoscience (2024)