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Bronchopulmonary dysplasia: risk prediction models for very-low- birth-weight infants

Journal of Perinatology volume 39, pages 1275–1281 (2019)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Objective

Our objective is to develop risk prediction models for moderate/severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) and BPD and/or death in very-low-birth-weight infants (VLBWI) at birth, 3, 7, and 14 postnatal days.

Study design

It is a multicenter study including 16,407 infants weighing 500–1500 g (2001–2015) from the Neocosur Network. BPD was defined as oxygen dependency at 36 weeks. Variables were selected using forward logistic regression models. Predictive values were evaluated using the ROC curve.

Results

In total, 2580 (15.7%) presented BPD and 6121 (37.3%) BPD/death. The AUC values for the BPD models were 0.788, 0.818, 0.827, and 0.894 respectively. For BPD/death, the AUC values were 0.860, 0.869, 0.867, and 0.906. BW and gestational age had higher contribution at birth; at later ages, the length of oxygen therapy and ventilation had the highest contribution. All AUC values were statistically significant when compared with a neutral value of 0.5 (p-value < 0.001).

Conclusions

We developed high predictive power models for moderate/severe BPD and BPD/death at four postnatal ages.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Dr Eduardo Bancalari for his critical review of this paper. We thank all the Neocosur centers that participated in this study.

Members from the NEOCOSUR Network: Argentina

Ana Pedraza, Guillermo Colantonio, Gaston Perez, Jorge Zapata, Fortunato Tomas (Clinica y Maternidad Suizo Argentina, Buenos Aires); Carlos Fustiñana, Silvia Fernandez, Gonzalo Mariani, Maria Paola Carrascal, Fernanda Galleti (Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires); Jorge Tavosnaska, Liliana Roldan, Gladys Saa, Debora Sabatelli, María Laura Gendra, Maria Teresa Sepulveda, Maria Fernanda Buraschi, Graciela Basso (Hospital Juan Fernandez, Buenos Aires); Monica Rinaldi, Daniel Agost (Hospital Lagomaggiore, Mendoza); Claudio Solana, Elio Rojas, Ricardo Nieto, Javier Meritano (Maternidad Sarda, Buenos Aires); Nestor Vain, Lionel Cracco, Edith Martínez, Noemi Jacobi, María San Miguel (Sanatorio de la Trinidad, Buenos Aires). Chile: Paulina Toso, Daniela Masoli, Jorge Fabres, Alberto Estay, Jose L. Tapia, Alvaro Gonzalez, Mariela Quezada, Solange Rojas (Hospital Clinico Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago); Jaime Burgos, Maria Eugenia Hübner, Rodrigo Ramirez (Hospital Clinico Universidad de Chile, Santiago); Jorge Leon del Pedregal, Lilia Campos, Aldo Bancalari, Ximena Giaconi, Sergio Treuer (Hospital Guillermo Grant, Concepcion); Jane Standen, Marisol Escobar, Daniela Sandino, Viviana Veas (Hospital Gustavo Fricke, Viña del Mar); Agustina Gonzalez, Claudia Avila (Hospital San Jose, Santiago); Marcela Díaz, Patricia Mena (Hospital Dr. Sotero del Rio, Santiago). Paraguay: Ramon Mir, Jose Lacarruba, Larissa Genes, Elizabeth Cespedes, Elvira Mendieta (Departamento de Hospital de Clinicas de Asunción, Asuncion). Perú: Veronica Webb, Margarita Llontop, Lili Chancafe, Sicilia Bellomo (Hospital Cayetano Heredia, Lima). Uruguay: Beatriz Ceruti, Daniel Borbonet, Sandra Gugliucci, Andrea Lanza, Florencia Rodrigo, Ricardo Tambasco, Micaela Murillo (Facultad de Medicina Servicio de Recién Nacidos Pereyra Rossell, Montevideo). Unidad Base de Datos: Pontificia Universidad Catolica (PUC), Santiago: Ivonne D’Apremont, Jose L Tapia, Mariela Quezada, Solange Rojas, Luis Villarroel, Angelica Dominguez, Guillermo Marshall. Gerencia Informatica PUC.

Funding

There was no external funding for this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Neonatología, Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile

    Daniela Valenzuela-Stutman, Guillermo Marshall, José L. Tapia & Álvaro Gonzalez

  2. Unidad de Neonatologia, Instituto Universitario Hospital Italiano Buenos Aires, Potosí, Argentina

    Gonzalo Mariani

  3. Servicio de Neonatología, Hospital Guillermo Grant Benavente y Departamento de Pediatría, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Concepción, Concepcion, Chile

    Aldo Bancalari

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  1. Daniela Valenzuela-Stutman
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Neocosur Neonatal Network

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All authors conceived the idea, analyzed the results, and contributed to the final paper. Dr Marshall performed the statistical analysis.

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Correspondence to Daniela Valenzuela-Stutman.

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Valenzuela-Stutman, D., Marshall, G., Tapia, J.L. et al. Bronchopulmonary dysplasia: risk prediction models for very-low- birth-weight infants. J Perinatol 39, 1275–1281 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41372-019-0430-x

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