Mark Maslin and Patrick Austin suggest that scientists should explain the statistical uncertainties in models of climate-change impacts (see Nature 486, 183–184; 2012). but these models are tools for insight, not prediction. A diversity of models benefits both science and science-based policy guidance.
We believe that future models will be more informative than those of today. The public-image problem of current models stems partly from scientists' failures to identify the limitations openly. It is important to distinguish between questions for which current models are useful as prediction engines and those for which the models merely probe possibilities. The role of science is to reflect on the plausibility and relevance of such possibilities.
Deep uncertainty is not foreign to policy-makers, who often have to weigh the advantages of deciding to wait against the potentially high costs of waiting.
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Stainforth, D., Smith, L. Clarify the limits of climate models. Nature 489, 208 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/489208a
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/489208a
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