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| Open AccessAtlantic water intrusion triggers rapid retreat and regime change at previously stable Greenland glacier
From 2018 to 2021, KIV Steenstrups Nordre Bræ, a marine-terminating outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet, retreated ~7 km, thinned ~20%, doubled in discharge, and accelerated ~300%. This rate of change is unprecedented in the observational record.
- T. R. Chudley
- , I. M. Howat
- & A. Negrete
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Article
| Open AccessWidespread global disparities between modelled and observed mid-depth ocean currents
Analysis of big Argo data reveals that model representation of global ocean circulation near 1000-m depth is substantially compromised by inaccuracies. Only 3.8% of the mid-depth ocean circulation can be considered accurately modelled.
- Fenzhen Su
- , Rong Fan
- & Fei Chai
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Article
| Open AccessFuture strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation
In contrast to the North Atlantic, the projected overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas increases throughout most of the 21st century in global climate model simulations. The Nordic Seas could therefore be a stabilizing factor in the future AMOC.
- Marius Årthun
- , Helene Asbjørnsen
- & Kjetil Våge
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| Open AccessIncreasing deep-water overflow from the Pacific into the South China Sea revealed by mooring observations
The observed deep-water overflow transport from the Pacific into the South China Sea has increased by 9% since 2009. This finding may have broad implications for the overturning circulations and biogeochemical processes in this region.
- Chun Zhou
- , Xin Xiao
- & Jiwei Tian
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| Open AccessAcceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability
Sea level rise along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast has accelerated since 2010 due to changes in steric expansion and the ocean’s circulation. The acceleration represents the compounding effects of external forcing and natural climate variability.
- Sönke Dangendorf
- , Noah Hendricks
- & Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
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| Open AccessBottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America
The authors investigate marine heatwaves on the ocean bottom in the shallow waters surrounding North America. Relative to their surface counterparts, bottom marine heatwaves are often more intense, more persistent, and can occur independently.
- Dillon J. Amaya
- , Michael G. Jacox
- & Adam S. Phillips
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Article
| Open AccessSubmesoscale inverse energy cascade enhances Southern Ocean eddy heat transport
Based on two high-resolution simulations, the authors find that submesoscale eddies significantly boost poleward oceanic heat transport in Antarctic waters by strengthening transport capability of mesoscale eddies through inverse energy cascade.
- Zhiwei Zhang
- , Yuelin Liu
- & Jiwei Tian
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Article
| Open AccessWind-driven upwelling of iron sustains dense blooms and food webs in the eastern Weddell Gyre
This study reports a dense, late summer phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Ocean that accumulated unusually high levels of organic matter and supported feeding hot spots for birds and whales. The authors show that this recurring open ocean bloom is driven by anomalies in easterly winds that push sea ice southwards and favour the upwelling of deep waters enriched in hydrothermal iron.
- Sebastien Moreau
- , Tore Hattermann
- & Harald Steen
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Article
| Open AccessObservational evidence for on-shelf heat transport driven by dense water export in the Weddell Sea
Recent modeling challenges our view on where the on-shelf heat flux in Antarctica occurs, suggesting it to be large where dense waters descend the continental slope. The authors provide observational evidence from the Weddell Sea supporting this claim.
- Elin Darelius
- , Kjersti Daae
- & Svein Østerhus
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Article
| Open AccessLikely accelerated weakening of Atlantic overturning circulation emerges in optimal salinity fingerprint
An optimal salinity fingerprint is proposed to detect the long-term Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) response to anthropogenic forcing. A real-word application suggests a likely accelerated weakening of the AMOC in recent decades.
- Chenyu Zhu
- , Zhengyu Liu
- & Lixin Wu
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Article
| Open AccessNorth Atlantic oscillation controls multidecadal changes in the North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific connection
The drivers of multidecadal changes in the North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific connection are still not fully understood. Here, the authors show that they are mainly controlled by multidecadal variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation.
- Ruiqiang Ding
- , Hyacinth C. Nnamchi
- & Xumin Li
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Article
| Open AccessInter-decadal climate variability induces differential ice response along Pacific-facing West Antarctica
Systematic satellite, ocean and atmosphere records show the pace and extent of melting in West Antarctica vary by location, with glaciers flowing to the Amundsen Sea most sensitive to atmosphere‒ocean variability atop a marine ice-sheet instability.
- Frazer D. W. Christie
- , Eric J. Steig
- & Robert G. Bingham
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| Open AccessRole of air-sea heat flux on the transformation of Atlantic Water encircling the Nordic Seas
This study reveals that air-sea heat exchange plays differing roles in the transformation of Atlantic Water along the two northward-flowing warm currents in the Nordic Seas, which needs to be considered to understand high-latitude response to climate change.
- Jie Huang
- , Robert S. Pickart
- & Rui Xin Huang
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Article
| Open AccessHidden heatwaves and severe coral bleaching linked to mesoscale eddies and thermocline dynamics
Hidden marine heatwaves, associated with ocean eddies that modulate undersea internal waves, threaten coastal ecosystems by driving unexpected sub-surface heating and severe coral bleaching and mortality across depths.
- Alex S. J. Wyatt
- , James J. Leichter
- & Scott C. Burgess
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Article
| Open AccessSouthern hemisphere eastern boundary upwelling systems emerging as future marine heatwave hotspots under greenhouse warming
The biologically productive eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) are regarded as thermal refugia in a warming climate. However, the authors here show that Southern Hemisphere EBUSs are likely to become hotspots of future marine heatwaves.
- Shengpeng Wang
- , Zhao Jing
- & Jian Shi
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Article
| Open AccessA large-scale view of marine heatwaves revealed by archetype analysis
Here, the authors use an advanced data-mining method to show how “extreme modes” of large-scale climate variability, such as El Niño, can lead to devastating marine heatwaves.
- Christopher C. Chapman
- , Didier P. Monselesan
- & Bernadette M. Sloyan
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Article
| Open AccessOcean variability beneath Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf driven by the Pine Island Bay Gyre strength
A weaker ocean gyre in the Pine Island Bay, suppressed by higher sea-ice concentration over the ocean near the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, allows more meltwater to enter the sub-ice-shelf cavity. This increases the ocean temperature beneath the ice.
- Tiago S. Dotto
- , Karen J. Heywood
- & Erin Pettit
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Article
| Open AccessRise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories
Winter sea ice production appears to have been increasing, despite Arctic warming being most intense during winter. Here the authors examine the competing factors controlling sea ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas, and develop a simple model that explains the rise and subsequent fall of ice production under climate change.
- S. B. Cornish
- , H. L. Johnson
- & A. E. Richards
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| Open AccessUnexpected limitation of tropical cyclone genesis by subsurface tropical central-north Pacific during El Niño
Wind stress curl anomalies break the ocean dynamical bond between sea surface and subsurface, constraining tropical cyclone genesis in the tropical central-north Pacific, leading to comparable number of TC for El Niño and La Niña in the western North Pacific.
- Cong Gao
- , Lei Zhou
- & Raghu Murtugudde
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Article
| Open AccessVertical redistribution of principle water masses on the Northeast Greenland Shelf
A comprehensive database of summer data reveals long-term changes in the vertical distribution of water masses on the Northeast Greenland Shelf, which will be important for driving ecosystem change through altered stratification and nutrient supply.
- Caroline V. B. Gjelstrup
- , Mikael K. Sejr
- & Colin A. Stedmon
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| Open AccessAn increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability
Increases in high-impact marine heatwaves over the past few decades are found to be due to recent acceleration in long-term ocean surface warming, stressing the need of careful attribution of climate change impact on extreme events.
- Tongtong Xu
- , Matthew Newman
- & Michael A. Alexander
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| Open AccessGrowth of ocean thermal energy conversion resources under greenhouse warming regulated by oceanic eddies
Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) resources provide a renewable solution to fuel our future. Here the authors show a significant increase of OTEC resources under greenhouse warming with the increasing rate regulated by oceanic eddies.
- Tianshi Du
- , Zhao Jing
- & Haiyuan Yang
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Article
| Open AccessEmergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate
Under global warming, increased variability in El Niño sea surface temperature was projected to be detectable by about 2070. Here the authors show that the increased variability of a type of more impactful El Niño events is likely detectable by 2030.
- Tao Geng
- , Wenju Cai
- & Michael J. McPhaden
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Article
| Open AccessSouthern Indian Ocean Dipole as a trigger for Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s
Predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since the 2000s has become increasingly challenging. Here the authors show that the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole has become a key precursor of Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s with a 14-month lead.
- Hyun-Su Jo
- , Yoo-Geun Ham
- & Hyerim Kim
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Article
| Open AccessSouthern Ocean biogenic blooms freezing-in Oligocene colder climates
A phase of unique turbulent oceanographic and tectonic circumstances during the Early Oligocene caused high productivity in the Australian Antarctic Basin and enabled the stabilization of colder global climates.
- Katharina Hochmuth
- , Joanne M. Whittaker
- & Joseph H. LaCasce
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Article
| Open AccessRemote energy sources for mixing in the Indonesian Seas
In addition to locally generated tidal mixing, remotely generated planetary (Kelvin and Rossby) waves and eddies are found to supply energy into the Indonesian Seas, sufficient to drive mixing in the upper ocean at rates inferred from observations.
- Chengyuan Pang
- , Maxim Nikurashin
- & Bernadette M. Sloyan
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Article
| Open AccessSea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia
Increased extreme high sea level events and concurrence of marine heatwaves are observed along the Indian Ocean coast of Indonesia in the past decade due to the combined impact of anthropogenic warming and natural decadal climate variability.
- Weiqing Han
- , Lei Zhang
- & Wen Xing
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Article
| Open AccessSpatial coalescent connectivity through multi-generation dispersal modelling predicts gene flow across marine phyla
This study uses a compilation of 58 population genetic studies of 47 phylogenetically divergent marine sedentary species over the Mediterranean basin to assess how genetic differentiation is predicted by different dispersal models. Multi-generation dispersal models reveal implicit links among siblings from a common ancestor (coalescent connectivity) that could improve spatial conservation planning.
- Térence Legrand
- , Anne Chenuil
- & Vincent Rossi
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal forestation and deforestation affect remote climate via adjusted atmosphere and ocean circulation
Based on coupled climate model simulations the authors show that changes to the Earth’s surface energy balance following global-scale forestation and deforestation may change the strength of the jet stream, the Hadley cell, and the ocean circulation, which alters remote climate patterns across the globe
- Raphael Portmann
- , Urs Beyerle
- & Sebastian Schemm
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Article
| Open AccessRapid vertical exchange at fronts in the Northern Gulf of Mexico
Vertical exchange in the ocean is an important conduit connecting the surface to the deep and influences the distributions of gases, nutrients, pollutants, and other tracers. Here the authors using high-resolution observations and numerical simulations of the ocean fronts in the Northern Gulf of Mexico reveal that the interaction between the fronts and land-sea breeze creates slantwise pathways for water parcels and induces significant subduction of surface water and upwelling of bottom water.
- Lixin Qu
- , Leif N. Thomas
- & Jonathan D. Nash
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Article
| Open AccessMachine learning-based tsunami inundation prediction derived from offshore observations
One of the main challenges in the tsunami inundation prediction is related to the real-time computational efforts done under restrictive time constraints. Here the authors show that using machine learning-based model, we can achieve comparable accuracy to the physics-based model with ~99% computational cost reduction.
- Iyan E. Mulia
- , Naonori Ueda
- & Kenji Satake
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal energy spectrum of the general oceanic circulation
Ocean spatial scale analysis has struggled to capture the vast dynamic range at planetary scales. Here the authors employ a method to probe circulation patterns in the World Ocean, thus opening a promising new window for measuring and understanding the ocean’s role in Earth’s climate system.
- Benjamin A. Storer
- , Michele Buzzicotti
- & Hussein Aluie
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Article
| Open AccessDrivers and distribution of global ocean heat uptake over the last half century
This study improves on limitations of the most commonly used spin-up approach for ocean-sea ice models. The authors find that, over the last 50 years, atmospheric changes over the Southern Ocean have driven almost all of the global ocean heat uptake.
- Maurice F. Huguenin
- , Ryan M. Holmes
- & Matthew H. England
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Article
| Open AccessDestabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age
Bivalves reveal that the subpolar North Atlantic destabilised and shows signs of having crossed a tipping point during the transition into the Little Ice Age.
- Beatriz Arellano-Nava
- , Paul R. Halloran
- & Timothy M. Lenton
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Article
| Open AccessCompound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes
Compound extreme events in two or more oceanic ecosystem stressors are increasingly considered as a major concern for marine life. Here the authors present a first global analysis on compound marine heatwave and ocean acidity extreme events, identifying hotspots, drivers, and projecting future changes.
- Friedrich A. Burger
- , Jens Terhaar
- & Thomas L. Frölicher
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| Open AccessThree-dimensional imaging of waves and floes in the marginal ice zone during a cyclone
Unprecedented 3D imaging of waves and sea ice floes from a moving icebreaker in the Antarctic marginal ice zone during a polar cyclone reveals a complex wind-plus-swell sea state, where contrasting ice-driven attenuation and wind forcing coexist.
- Alberto Alberello
- , Luke G. Bennetts
- & Alessandro Toffoli
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| Open AccessDecrease in air-sea CO2 fluxes caused by persistent marine heatwaves
Ocean CO2 uptake at mid-latitudes counteracts CO2 release in the tropics, but we know little about the effects of marine heatwaves that modulate this process. Here, the authors use joint analysis of satellite measurements, in situ observation, reconstructions derived from machine learning algorithms, numerical model of the global ocean, and find that areas where PMHWs most frequently occur coincide with the regions that are the most critical for the oceanic carbon cycle.
- Alexandre Mignot
- , Karina von Schuckmann
- & Tristan Amm
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| Open AccessSubsurface ocean warming preceded Heinrich Events
The mechanism driving past Laurentide Ice-Sheet instabilities remains elusive Here, the authors present a sediment record from the subpolar western North Atlantic and show that massive warming of the upper interior ocean was the likely trigger for repeated collapses of the Laurentide Ice-Sheet and iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic, known as Heinrich Events.
- Lars Max
- , Dirk Nürnberg
- & Stefan Mulitza
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Article
| Open AccessLongest sediment flows yet measured show how major rivers connect efficiently to deep sea
This paper analyses the longest sediment flows measured in action on Earth. These seabed flows were caused by floods and spring tides, and flushed prodigious sediment and carbon volumes into the deep sea, as they accelerated for a thousand kilometres.
- Peter J. Talling
- , Megan L. Baker
- & Robert J. Hilton
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Article
| Open AccessBarents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream
Climate model simulations show that for 1970-2017 externally-forced sea surface temperature increases in the Gulf Stream explain up to 56% of the sea-ice decline in the Barents-Kara Sea during winter via poleward oceanic heat transport.
- Yoko Yamagami
- , Masahiro Watanabe
- & Jun Ono
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Article
| Open AccessA deep-learning estimate of the decadal trends in the Southern Ocean carbon storage
Dissolved carbon concentrations in the ocean interior are computed by a deep-learning model using ocean surface data. In the Southern Ocean, they decreased in the 1990s-2000s and increased since 2010, reducing anthropogenic carbon uptake potential.
- Varvara E. Zemskova
- , Tai-Long He
- & Nicolas Grisouard
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Article
| Open AccessIncreased Indian Ocean-North Atlantic Ocean warming chain under greenhouse warming
Over the past half century, both the Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean exhibit strong warming trends like a global mean surface temperature. In this study, the authors show that not only an increase of greenhouse gases, but also atmospheric teleconnections boost the observed warming trends.
- Young-Min Yang
- , Jae-Heung Park
- & Bin Wang
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Article
| Open AccessMulti-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific Oscillation
The causes of long-lasting behaviors of multi-year El Niño are still not fully understood. Here, the authors find that persistent two-way teleconnections between the North Pacific Oscillation and the tropical Pacific constitute a key source of multi-year El Niño.
- Ruiqiang Ding
- , Yu‐Heng Tseng
- & Feifei Li
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Article
| Open AccessA deep Tasman outflow of Pacific waters during the last glacial period
Using cold-water corals, this work identifies a deep outflow of Pacific waters via the Tasman Sea during the last ice age, thus highlighting the role of this area for the interoceanic exchange of water masses on climatic time scales.
- Torben Struve
- , David J. Wilson
- & Tina van de Flierdt
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Article
| Open AccessChallenging the highstand-dormant paradigm for land-detached submarine canyons
Powerful avalanches were recorded for the first time in an underwater canyon that lies 100 s of km from land. This challenges a long-held view and indicates > 1000 similar canyons worldwide actively pump sediment and pollutants into the deep-sea.
- M. S. Heijnen
- , F. Mienis
- & M. A. Clare
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| Open AccessAbruptly attenuated carbon sequestration with Weddell Sea dense waters by 2100
Weddell Sea dense water formation facilitates carbon sequestration on centennial time scales. The authors show that for a high-emission scenario, carbon sequestration is reduced by 2100 due to water-mass property changes on the continental shelf.
- Cara Nissen
- , Ralph Timmermann
- & Judith Hauck
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Article
| Open AccessThe streaming of plastic in the Mediterranean Sea
Plastic pollution in seas is widespread, but some areas lack the high concentrations of plastic debris. Here the authors identified places where large amounts of plastic debris pass in the Mediterranean Sea thus helping to study plastic dispersion in regions where plastic debris does not accumulate, and a tool for mitigation strategies.
- Alberto Baudena
- , Enrico Ser-Giacomi
- & Maria Luiza Pedrotti
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Article
| Open AccessPetermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup
New experiments suggest that the Petermann Ice Shelf in northwest Greenland is unlikely to recover once a breakup occurs in the future. If this is not unique to this ice shelf, continued ocean warming may lead to high discharge from polar ice sheets.
- Henning Åkesson
- , Mathieu Morlighem
- & Martin Jakobsson
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Article
| Open AccessNonlinear wave evolution with data-driven breaking
Wave breaking mechanisms relevant for modelling of ocean-atmosphere interaction and rogue waves, remain computationally challenging. The authors propose a machine learning framework for prediction of breaking and its effects on wave evolution that can be applied for forecasting of real world sea states.
- D. Eeltink
- , H. Branger
- & T. P. Sapsis