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| Open AccessCombined ground and aerial measurements resolve vent-specific gas fluxes from a multi-vent volcano
Combining multiple ultraviolet cameras with synchronous aerial measurements, the authors here present vent-specific gas compositions and fluxes for Stromboli volcano. The results show that gas compositions vary between different vents, mirroring differences in eruptive behavior.
- T. D. Pering
- , E. J. Liu
- & A. J. S. McGonigle
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Article
| Open AccessA bedform phase diagram for dense granular currents
In this study, Smith and colleagues employ analogue experiments to show the controlling parameters on sediment bedforms in pyroclastic density current deposits. The findings are applied and validated on natural deposits.
- Gregory Smith
- , Peter Rowley
- & Samuel Capon
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Article
| Open AccessOcean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across central United States
In the 1930s, the US was hit by a severe drought and record-breaking heatwaves in a period known as the Dust Bowl. Here, the authors present model experiments that suggest that warm North Atlantic temperatures and human devegetation played key roles in making these heatwaves particularly strong.
- Tim Cowan
- , Gabriele C. Hegerl
- & Benjamin Ng
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Article
| Open AccessFour-dimensional surface motions of the Slumgullion landslide and quantification of hydrometeorological forcing
Landslides are damaging natural hazards and can often lead to unexpected casualties and property damage. Here, the authors conduct geodetic and hydrological data analyses of the Slumgullion landslide, Colorado, and quantify the mass movement to find it fits a power-law flow theory and responds to hydroclimatic variability.
- Xie Hu
- , Roland Bürgmann
- & Eric J. Fielding
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Article
| Open AccessStable isotopes show that earthquakes enhance permeability and release water from mountains
The authors investigate the groundwater table changes in the Kumamoto region (Japan) following the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake. Through detailed isotope analysis the study shows how earthquakes can rupture the crust and generate new pathways for aquifers.
- Takahiro Hosono
- , Chisato Yamada
- & Masaharu Tanimizu
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Article
| Open AccessSearch and rescue at sea aided by hidden flow structures
Every year, hundreds of people die at sea because of vessel accidents, and a key challenge in reducing these fatalities is to make Search and Rescue (SAR) planning more efficient. Here, the authors uncover hidden flow features that attract floating objects, providing specific information for optimal SAR planning.
- Mattia Serra
- , Pratik Sathe
- & George Haller
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Article
| Open AccessSocial-media and newspaper reports reveal large-scale meteorological drivers of floods on Sumatra
Floods are an important natural disaster on the Indonesian island of Sumatra, but their driving mechanisms are not well understood. Here, the authors utilize data from twitter messages and local newspaper reports to show that convectively coupled Kelvin waves play a key role in promoting floods on Sumatra.
- Dariusz B. Baranowski
- , Maria K. Flatau
- & Marzuki
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Article
| Open AccessSeismic ground vibrations give advanced early-warning of subglacial floods
Subglacial lakes and jökulhlaups (glacier outburst floods) are common in volcanic and glaciated environments, and can pose potential threats to communities living downstream. Here, the authors find that seismic tremor signals during subglacial floods can be used to locate and track the speed and size of the flood before it arrives at the river system, and improves previous methods of early glacial flood warning by a factor of 5.
- Eva P. S. Eibl
- , Christopher J. Bean
- & Kristin S. Vogfjörd
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Article
| Open AccessDistributed acoustic sensing of microseismic sources and wave propagation in glaciated terrain
In this study, Walter and colleagues deploy a 1 km long fiber optics cable on a glacier surface. Via the use of distributed acoustic sensing, the authors are capable of monitoring glacier dynamics and Alpine mass movements.
- F. Walter
- , D. Gräff
- & A. Fichtner
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Article
| Open AccessEconomic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe
There lacks a European cost-benefit analysis of possible protective measures against rising seas. Here the authors used a probabilistic data and modeling framework to estimate costs and benefits of coastal protection measures and found that at least 83% of flood damages could be avoided by dyke improvements along a third of the European coastline.
- Michalis I. Vousdoukas
- , Lorenzo Mentaschi
- & Luc Feyen
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Article
| Open AccessFire deficit increases wildfire risk for many communities in the Canadian boreal forest
A primary element of modern wildfire management is to aggressively suppress small fires before they become large, but benefits can be offset by the fact that these practices promote older forests that are more ‘flammable’. Here the authors show that this downside puts numerous human communities at elevated risk of fires in boreal Canada.
- Marc-André Parisien
- , Quinn E. Barber
- & Sean A. Parks
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Article
| Open AccessDownstream changes in river avulsion style are related to channel morphology
River avulsions are dramatic events that can cause the loss of many human lives. The authors here investigate how river avulsion style changes with river morphology, and how these changes impact flooding and stratigraphy.
- J. M. Valenza
- , D. A. Edmonds
- & S. Roy
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Article
| Open AccessSelf-organizing maps of typhoon tracks allow for flood forecasts up to two days in advance
Tropical cyclones can cause severe flooding when making landfall, but these water flows can often only be forecasted a few hours before. Here, the authors present a new approach using self-organizing maps and flow characteristic curves to predict tropical cyclone related runoff up to two days in advance.
- Li-Chiu Chang
- , Fi-John Chang
- & Edwin E. Herricks
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Article
| Open AccessSocial media usage reveals recovery of small businesses after natural hazard events
Natural hazards can have huge impacts on individuals and societies, however, monitoring the economic recovery in the aftermath of extreme events remains a challenge. Here, the authors find that Facebook posting activity of small businesses can be used to monitor post-disaster economic recovery, and can allow local governments to better target distribution of resources.
- Robert Eyre
- , Flavia De Luca
- & Filippo Simini
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Article
| Open AccessNew insights into US flood vulnerability revealed from flood insurance big data
Economic estimates of flood damages rely on depth–damage functions that are inadequately verified. Here, the authors assessed flood vulnerability in the US and found that current depth–damage functions consist of disparate relationships that match poorly with observations which better follow a bimodal beta distribution.
- Oliver E. J. Wing
- , Nicholas Pinter
- & Carolyn Kousky
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Article
| Open AccessSlow-to-fast transition of giant creeping rockslides modulated by undrained loading in basal shear zones
Giant rockslides creep slowly for centuries and then can fail catastrophically, posing major threats to society. Here, the authors use observational and experimental evidence to quantitatively capture the full spectrum of giant rockslide behaviour until collapse, that is modulated by hydro-mechanical response to short-term fluid pressure perturbations.
- Federico Agliardi
- , Marco M. Scuderi
- & Cristiano Collettini
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Article
| Open AccessRain and small earthquakes maintain a slow-moving landslide in a persistent critical state
In this study, the authors show the interaction between seismic activity and rainfalls on landslide movement and how their timing controls landslide stability and motion.
- Noélie Bontemps
- , Pascal Lacroix
- & Edu Taipe
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Article
| Open AccessUsing remarkability to define coastal flooding thresholds
The degree of flooding in a particular location depends sensitively on local topography and bathymetry. Here the authors used the remarkability of flood events to estimate county-specific flood thresholds for shoreline counties along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States and found that several areas experience noticeable flooding at a height lower than existing thresholds.
- Frances C. Moore
- & Nick Obradovich
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Article
| Open AccessTropical cyclone rainbands can trigger meteotsunamis
Tropical cyclones can cause severe damage, in particular through flooding of coastal areas. Here, the authors show that in addition to known impacts, tropical cyclone rainbands can cause meteotsunami waves that can contribute significantly to the total water levels and hence flooding risks.
- Luming Shi
- , Maitane Olabarrieta
- & John C. Warner
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Article
| Open AccessEarthquake slip surfaces identified by biomarker thermal maturity within the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake fault zone
In this study, the authors investigate thermal alteration of organic biomarkers to detect paleo earthquakes in the Japan Trench. The study shows that large earthquakes like the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake can slip through different types of sediment rather than being restricted to the weakest layers.
- Hannah S. Rabinowitz
- , Heather M. Savage
- & James D. Kirkpatrick
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Article
| Open AccessAntarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes
There are significant uncertainties of how large sea level changes due to Antarctic Ice Sheet melting could be. Here, the authors quantify the impact of different greenhouse gas emission scenarios and different Antarctic contributions to changes to extreme sea-level events and find that even under low emissions the occurrence of sea-level extremes could rise significantly due to Antarctic meltwater increase.
- Thomas Frederikse
- , Maya K. Buchanan
- & Roderik S. W. van de Wal
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Article
| Open AccessWeak phases production and heat generation control fault friction during seismic slip
Decrease of friction during seismic slip is linked to temperature increase and weak phases production inside the fault core. Here the authors propose a mathematical framework which explains the frictional behaviour of all materials reported in literature and precisely captures material weakening during fault slip.
- Hadrien Rattez
- & Manolis Veveakis
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Article
| Open AccessQuantitative earthquake-like statistical properties of the flow of soft materials below yield stress
To better understand the response of Earth’s crust to earthquakes, it is valuable to mimic the geographic scale phenomena in laboratory scale experiment. Here, Bera et al. show that large bursts in ground acceleration of real earthquakes can be well reproduced in two soft, yield stress materials.
- P. K. Bera
- , S. Majumdar
- & A. K. Sood
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Article
| Open AccessCascading and pulse-like ruptures during the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes in the Eastern California Shear Zone
The authors here investigate in the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes in Searles Valley, California. Based on geodetic and seismological data, the authors separate the event into two earthquakes (Mw 6.5 and 7.1) and produce kinematic slip models of the event.
- Kejie Chen
- , Jean-Philippe Avouac
- & Chuang Shi
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessIncreases in temperature do not translate to increased flooding
- Conrad Wasko
- , Ashish Sharma
- & Dennis P. Lettenmaier
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to ‘Increases in temperature do not translate to increased flooding’
- Jiabo Yin
- , Pierre Gentine
- & Pan Liu
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Article
| Open AccessHydrothermal alteration of andesitic lava domes can lead to explosive volcanic behaviour
The permeability of a dome exerts a control on the outgassing efficiency of the underlying magma. The authors investigate the role of hydrothermal alteration on this process in the laboratory and use these data to model whether the overpressures generated are capable of promoting explosive behaviour.
- Michael J. Heap
- , Valentin R. Troll
- & Thomas R. Walter
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Article
| Open AccessSolar and wind energy enhances drought resilience and groundwater sustainability
The role of solar and wind energy (SWE) in management of water-food-energy (WFE) nexus is largely neglected. Here the authors developed a trade-off frontier framework to quantify the water sustainability value of SWE and applied it in California, where they found that SWE penetration creates beneficial feedback for the WFE nexus by enhancing drought resilience and benefits groundwater sustainability over long run.
- Xiaogang He
- , Kairui Feng
- & Justin Sheffield
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Article
| Open AccessMoving from drought hazard to impact forecasts
There still lacks a forecast system that inform end-users regarding the drought impacts, which will be however important for drought management. Here the authors assess the feasibility of forecasting drought impacts using machine-learning and confirm that models, which were built with sufficient amount of reported drought impacts in a certain sector, are able to forecast drought impacts a few months ahead.
- Samuel J. Sutanto
- , Melati van der Weert
- & Henny A. J. Van Lanen
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Article
| Open AccessComplex hazard cascade culminating in the Anak Krakatau sector collapse
On 22 December 2018, the western flank of Anak Krakatau collapsed into the sea of the Sunda Strait triggering a tsunami which killed approximately 430 people and displaced 33,000. Here, the authors show that Anak Krakatau exhibited an elevated state of activity several months prior to the collapse, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island’s surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of the southwestern flank.
- Thomas R. Walter
- , Mahmud Haghshenas Haghighi
- & Peter Gaebler
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Article
| Open AccessDeciphering key processes controlling rainfall isotopic variability during extreme tropical cyclones
“Reconstruction of precipitation variability from oxygen isotopes in the Mesoamerican and Caribbean region is made difficult by the occurrence of tropical cyclones. Here, the isotopic evolution of a tropical cyclone is studied in detail which helps disentangle the key processes governing rainfall isotope variability in the region.”
- Ricardo Sánchez-Murillo
- , Ana M. Durán-Quesada
- & Kim M. Cobb
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Article
| Open AccessForecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake
Forecasting aftershock earthquakes is a critical step in improving seismic hazard mitigation. The authors here combine Bayesian methods with extreme value theory to tackle this problem - and manage to estimate the maximum magnitude of an expected earthquake as well as the arrival times in a pre-defined window.
- Robert Shcherbakov
- , Jiancang Zhuang
- & Yosihiko Ogata
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Article
| Open AccessEarthquake crisis unveils the growth of an incipient continental fault system
The Al-Idrissi Fault System in the Alboran Sea is a major tectonic structure in its initial stage. By using bathymetric and seismic reflection data, the authors unravel a 3D geometry for the AIFS, which corresponds to a crustal-scale boundary and provides a unique model of the inception and growth of a young plate boundary fault system.
- Eulàlia Gràcia
- , Ingo Grevemeyer
- & César R. Ranero
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Article
| Open AccessFluid dynamic induced break-up during volcanic eruptions
Determining if a volcanic eruption will behave effusively or explosively is crucial for predicting the potential hazard type and for planning effective mitigation. Here, the authors present a universal, fluid dynamic induced, break-up criterion for low viscosity melts.
- T. J. Jones
- , C. D. Reynolds
- & S. C. Boothroyd
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Article
| Open AccessClimate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns
Tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding will increase under climate change. Here the authors estimate the effects of sea level rise and tropical cyclone climatology change on late–21st–century flood hazards along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and find that the effect of tropical cyclone change could surpass the effect of sea level rise at some areas in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Reza Marsooli
- , Ning Lin
- & Kairui Feng
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Article
| Open AccessInterseismic strain build-up on the submarine North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul
The state of the Main Marmara Fault (fault segment of the North Anatolian Fault) is widely discussed, towards whether it is creeping or locked. The authors here present seafloor geodetic measurements which indicate a complete locking of the fault in the central part of the Sea of Marmara. This provides significant information for the assessment of both seismic and potential tsunami hazard to Istanbul.
- Dietrich Lange
- , Heidrun Kopp
- & Louis Géli
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Article
| Open AccessProvenance of uranium particulate contained within Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Unit 1 ejecta material
The larger particulates from reactor Unit 1 of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant have received sparse attention compared to the Unit 2 particulate. Here the authors perform the higher-resolution and 3-dimentional analysis of several high-density micron-scale fragments, from within a larger Unit 1-derived representative ejecta particle.
- Peter G. Martin
- , Marion Louvel
- & Thomas B. Scott
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Article
| Open AccessA global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets
Spatial distribution has been rarely studied in global disaster risk models. Here the authors address damaged networked infrastructure at the asset level for a wider range of hazards and reveal a global Expected Annual Damages ranging from $3.1 to 22 billion with a particular vulnerability of transport infrastructure in Small Island Developing States.
- E. E. Koks
- , J. Rozenberg
- & S. Hallegatte
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Perspective
| Open AccessLessons from the reestablishment of Public Health Laboratory activities in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria
Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017 and resulted in a complete loss of activity of the Public Health Laboratories. Here, the authors discuss the approach taken and tools developed to re-establish activity in these laboratories using a quality management system and the lessons learned in this process.
- Margaret C. Hardy
- , Rita C. Stinnett
- & Eduardo O’Neill
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Article
| Open AccessThe footprint of column collapse regimes on pyroclastic flow temperatures and plume heights
Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are a major threat during explosive volcanic eruptions, hence the possibility to forecast them would be a vital improvement for risk mitigation. Here the authors present a 3D flow model to quantify the thermal patterns leading to volcanic ash plume collapse conditions.
- Matteo Trolese
- , Matteo Cerminara
- & Guido Giordano
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Article
| Open AccessLocal floods induce large-scale abrupt failures of road networks
The spread of flood-induced failures in critical infrastructure systems is understudied. Here the authors apply the CaMa-Flood global river flood simulation model to estimate the flood-induced failures and their spread in China and the US and find that the number of flood-induced total failures is in-between that of random and localized damage given the same intensity.
- Weiping Wang
- , Saini Yang
- & Jianxi Gao
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Article
| Open AccessFluidal pyroclasts reveal the intensity of peralkaline rhyolite pumice cone eruptions
Dynamics of peralkaline rhyolite eruptions remain elusive due to the lack of direct observations. Here the authors provide X-ray Computed Tomography, thermal modelling and field data of fluidal shaped pyroclasts and show that peralkaline rhyolite pumice cones are the product of moderate to intense eruptions.
- Ben Clarke
- , Eliza S. Calder
- & Gezahegn Yirgu
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Article
| Open AccessNew estimates of flood exposure in developing countries using high-resolution population data
Flood risk modelling neglects the location of people and assets. Here the authors applied machine learning techniques and high-resolution population data to reinvestigate the impact of population distributions on flood exposure and showed that populations are generally represented as risk-averse and largely avoiding obvious flood zones.
- Andrew Smith
- , Paul D. Bates
- & Jeff Neal
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Article
| Open AccessExtremes of summer climate trigger thousands of thermokarst landslides in a High Arctic environment
Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) are landslides caused by melting ground ice in permafrost areas. Based on Google Earth Engine Timelapse data, the authors show an unprecedented 60-fold increase in RTS numbers for Banks Island, Canada, from 1984 to 2015 due to a warming summer climate.
- Antoni G. Lewkowicz
- & Robert G. Way
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Article
| Open AccessMechanical behaviour of fluid-lubricated faults
The effect of fluid viscosity on fault mechanics is mainly conjectured by theoretical models. Here, the authors present experimental data from rock friction experiments, showing both static and dynamic friction coefficients to decrease with viscosity and dynamic friction to depend on the Sommerfeld number.
- C. Cornelio
- , E. Spagnuolo
- & M. Violay
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Article
| Open AccessDynamic viability of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake cascade on weak crustal faults
The 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand raised the discussion about how a complex fault system operates. Here the authors propose a dynamic rupture scenario that reproduces key characteristics of the event and show that the fault system works at low apparent friction.
- Thomas Ulrich
- , Alice-Agnes Gabriel
- & Wenbin Xu
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Article
| Open AccessHow long do floods throughout the millennium remain in the collective memory?
Concept of learning from history assumes that information is handed between generations to avoid negative effect of hazards. Here the authors analysed human behaviour and decision making on post-flood settlements and showed flood memory faded away in two generations, which is insufficient to protect human settlements from rare catastrophic floods.
- Václav Fanta
- , Miroslav Šálek
- & Petr Sklenicka
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Article
| Open AccessOcean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season
Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are favoured by positive sea surface temperature anomalies. Here the authors identify a new air-sea heat flux driver for these anomalies in the severe 2017 season, while the recent 2005 and 2010 severe seasons were mainly driven by weakened ocean overturning circulation.
- Samantha Hallam
- , Robert Marsh
- & Joël J.-M. Hirschi
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Article
| Open AccessRipplocations provide a new mechanism for the deformation of phyllosilicates in the lithosphere
Phyllosilicate minerals are critical components of seismogenic fault, shear and subduction zones. Here, the authors provide a new deformation mechanism for phyllosilicates, based on newly discovered crystallographic defects in biotite (ripplocations), affecting our understanding of fault zone processes.
- Joe Aslin
- , Elisabetta Mariani
- & Michel W. Barsoum