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Open Access
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| Open AccessForest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand
Rising forest flammability could become a major public health issue and amplify climate change via feedbacks on the carbon cycle. Here the authors identify daily fuel moisture thresholds associated with increased fire risk in earth’s forests.
- Hamish Clarke
- , Rachael H. Nolan
- & Matthias M. Boer
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Article
| Open AccessSurface faulting earthquake clustering controlled by fault and shear-zone interactions
The mechanisms responsible for clustering of surface fault earthquakes are often unclear. Here the authors find that differential stress fluctuates during fault/shear-zone interactions which can produce changes in strain-rate and slip-rate changes leading to earthquake clustering.
- Zoë K. Mildon
- , Gerald P. Roberts
- & Eutizio Vittori
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Article
| Open AccessDrivers of recent decline in dust activity over East Asia
Changes in climatic factors mainly drive the decline of East Asian dust activity in the past two decades. The weakening of surface winds plays a dominant role, and the increasing of vegetation cover and soil moisture also has key contribution
- Chenglai Wu
- , Zhaohui Lin
- & Ying Li
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Article
| Open AccessSea-level rise will likely accelerate rock coast cliff retreat rates
Results forecast that cliff retreat rates will increase by up to an order of magnitude by 2100 according to current predictions of sea-level rise, and reveal that even historically stable rock coasts are highly sensitive to sea-level rise.
- Jennifer R. Shadrick
- , Dylan H. Rood
- & Klaus M. Wilcken
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Comment
| Open AccessThe harmful legacy of colonialism in natural hazard risk
The colonial practices of geoscience have created long term vulnerabilities to natural hazards. In this comment the ongoing consequence are explored of colonialism as well as the actions that are needed to be taken to reduce natural hazard risk.
- Jazmin P. Scarlett
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Article
| Open AccessCreep fronts and complexity in laboratory earthquake sequences illuminate delayed earthquake triggering
Laboratory earthquake experiments reproduce delayed earthquake triggering, similar to aftershocks, as a result of propagating slow slip fronts. The speed of the fronts can be highly sensitive to fault stress levels left behind by previous earthquakes.
- Sara Beth L. Cebry
- , Chun-Yu Ke
- & Gregory C. McLaskey
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| Open AccessA potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification
This study shows intensification rates of tropical cyclones around the world have significantly increased, and environmental conditions around storms are becoming more favorable. Human-caused climate change is contributing to both trends.
- Kieran Bhatia
- , Alexander Baker
- & Carolyn Whitlock
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Article
| Open AccessSeismic events miss important kinematically governed grain scale mechanisms during shear failure of porous rock
Sound and Vision: In-situ synchrotron x-ray imaging with simultaneous acoustic monitoring captures grain scale damage mechanisms and unlocks the relationship between seismic and aseismic processes during catastrophic failure of porous rock.
- Alexis Cartwright-Taylor
- , Maria-Daphne Mangriotis
- & Oxana V. Magdysyuk
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| Open AccessIntercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models
Various synthetic tropical cyclone datasets exist for risk assessment purposes. Here, the authors conduct a global dataset comparison to assess their suitability and applicability in answering different impact-related questions.
- Simona Meiler
- , Thomas Vogt
- & David N. Bresch
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Article
| Open AccessHidden pressurized fluids prior to the 2014 phreatic eruption at Mt Ontake
Phreatic volcanic eruptions can be unexpected and devastating. Here the authors, using seismic-based methodologies, find that pressurized fluids accumulated 5 months before the deadly phreatic eruption at Mt Ontake; a period previously considered as completely quiescent.
- Corentin Caudron
- , Yosuke Aoki
- & Toshiko Terakawa
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Article
| Open AccessInversions of landslide strength as a proxy for subsurface weathering
Bedrock weathering is associated with landslides, and also manifests as a change in the strength of subsurface materials. This study analyzes inventoried landslides to explore relationships between strength and landslide depth as a potential reflection of subsurface weathering at large scales.
- Stefano Alberti
- , Ben Leshchinsky
- & Michael J. Olsen
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Article
| Open AccessMachine learning-based tsunami inundation prediction derived from offshore observations
One of the main challenges in the tsunami inundation prediction is related to the real-time computational efforts done under restrictive time constraints. Here the authors show that using machine learning-based model, we can achieve comparable accuracy to the physics-based model with ~99% computational cost reduction.
- Iyan E. Mulia
- , Naonori Ueda
- & Kenji Satake
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Article
| Open AccessClimate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle
Increasing floods and droughts are raising concerns of an accelerating water cycle. A new study shows that the terrestrial water cycle in Brazil has been mostly drying or accelerating, aligned with changes in rainfall, water use, and forest cover.
- Vinícius B. P. Chagas
- , Pedro L. B. Chaffe
- & Günter Blöschl
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| Open AccessRevealing the spatiotemporal complexity of the magnitude distribution and b-value during an earthquake sequence
The authors introduce a new perspective to study the spatiotemporal behavior of the magnitude–frequency distribution: spatially isolating seismogenic zones to provide an appropriate scale to resolve the b-value. Among those zones, the b-value behaved remarkably throughout the 2016 central Italy sequence.
- Marcus Herrmann
- , Ester Piegari
- & Warner Marzocchi
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Article
| Open AccessCompound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes
Compound extreme events in two or more oceanic ecosystem stressors are increasingly considered as a major concern for marine life. Here the authors present a first global analysis on compound marine heatwave and ocean acidity extreme events, identifying hotspots, drivers, and projecting future changes.
- Friedrich A. Burger
- , Jens Terhaar
- & Thomas L. Frölicher
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| Open AccessEarlier onset of North Atlantic hurricane season with warming oceans
There is a significant trend in recent decades towards an earlier start to North Atlantic hurricane seasons. Both the first named storm and first U.S. landfall of the year are occurring earlier. This shift is physically linked to warmer western North Atlantic sea surface temperatures in spring.
- Ryan E. Truchelut
- , Philip J. Klotzbach
- & Eric S. Blake
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence for a developing plate boundary in the western Mediterranean
Conventional models propose multiple fault systems across a diffuse deformation zone absorbing plate convergence in the western Mediterranean. Here the authors show new data supporting the active development of a single plate boundary fault system, representing an underappreciated seismic and tsunami hazard.
- Laura Gómez de la Peña
- , César R. Ranero
- & Abdelkarim Yelles-Chaouche
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Article
| Open AccessIn-conduit capture of sub-micron volcanic ash particles via turbophoresis and sintering
Here the authors document evidence of ultrafine ash captured within ash-venting nozzles at Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile). This decouples eruptive processes from the emitted products, as explained by a new model of in-vent ash migration and sticking.
- Jamie I. Farquharson
- , Hugh Tuffen
- & C. Ian Schipper
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Article
| Open AccessTropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate
The study found that long-duration heatwaves are much more likely to follow power-damaging tropical cyclones in the future RCP8.5 climate, with the impact of longer-than-5-day tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard increasing by a factor of 23 over the 21st century.
- Kairui Feng
- , Min Ouyang
- & Ning Lin
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessFire activity as measured by burned area reveals weak effects of ENSO in China
- Víctor Resco de Dios
- , Yinan Yao
- & Matthias M. Boer
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Fire activity as measured by burned area reveals weak effects of ENSO in China
- Qichao Yao
- , Keyan Fang
- & Valerie Trouet
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Article
| Open AccessPorts’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains
A new study presents a new global modeling framework to explore the links between ports, maritime transport and global supply-chains, and identifies critical links and dependencies between 1300 ports and the economies that depend on them.
- J. Verschuur
- , E. E. Koks
- & J. W. Hall
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Article
| Open AccessLongest sediment flows yet measured show how major rivers connect efficiently to deep sea
This paper analyses the longest sediment flows measured in action on Earth. These seabed flows were caused by floods and spring tides, and flushed prodigious sediment and carbon volumes into the deep sea, as they accelerated for a thousand kilometres.
- Peter J. Talling
- , Megan L. Baker
- & Robert J. Hilton
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Article
| Open AccessResponding to eruptive transitions during the 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent
The 2020 – 2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano transitioned from an effusive to explosive eruption style. Here the authors show that input from multiple monitoring datasets and an evolving conceptual model were key to anticipating and responding to the eruptive transition at the La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent, in a resource-constrained setting.
- E. P. Joseph
- , M. Camejo-Harry
- & R. S. J. Sparks
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Article
| Open AccessDiverse mantle components with invariant oxygen isotopes in the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland
The 2021 eruption in the Reykjanes Peninsula of Iceland was the first in 800 years and was supplied by melts from diverse mantle source domains with near-identical oxygen isotope ratios, providing a unique insight into the Icelandic mantle plume.
- I. N. Bindeman
- , F. M. Deegan
- & T. R. Walter
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Comment
| Open AccessGlobal exposure to flood risk and poverty
Flooding is a pervasive natural hazard, with new research demonstrating that more than one in five people around the world live in areas directly exposed to 1-in-100 year flood risk. Exposure to such flood risk is particularly concentrated amongst lower income households worldwide.
- Thomas K. J. McDermott
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Article
| Open AccessThe timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change
Significant regional disparities exist in the time left to prepare for unprecedented drought and how much we can buy time depending on climate scenarios. Specific regions pass this timing by the middle of 21st century even with stringent mitigation.
- Yusuke Satoh
- , Kei Yoshimura
- & Taikan Oki
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Article
| Open AccessFlood exposure and poverty in 188 countries
Floods are most devastating for those who can least afford to be hit. Globally, 1.8 billion people face high flood risks; 89% of them live in developing countries; 170 million of them live in extreme poverty making them most vulnerable.
- Jun Rentschler
- , Melda Salhab
- & Bramka Arga Jafino
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Article
| Open AccessTargeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals
Without targeted climate adaptation, impacts of climate change threaten achievement of all 169 SDG targets. Fuldauer et al. provide an actionable framework to assess these impacts and help systematically align national adaptation plans with the SDGs.
- Lena I. Fuldauer
- , Scott Thacker
- & Jim W. Hall
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Article
| Open AccessChallenging the highstand-dormant paradigm for land-detached submarine canyons
Powerful avalanches were recorded for the first time in an underwater canyon that lies 100 s of km from land. This challenges a long-held view and indicates > 1000 similar canyons worldwide actively pump sediment and pollutants into the deep-sea.
- M. S. Heijnen
- , F. Mienis
- & M. A. Clare
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Article
| Open AccessThe cryptic seismic potential of the Pichilemu blind fault in Chile revealed by off-fault geomorphology
Cryptic faults concern earthquake scientists, since they pose a hidden seismic potential which is hard to identify. To address this, the authors here study off-fault deformed geomorphic markers such as marine terraces using high-resolution LiDAR topography, optical dating of sediments and space geodetic observations.
- J. Jara-Muñoz
- , D. Melnick
- & M. R. Strecker
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| Open AccessExploring disaster impacts on adaptation actions in 549 cities worldwide
Here the authors explore the effects of disasters on adaptation actions in 549 cities, finding that the effects of disaster frequency and severity are modest and depend on action type, population size, and adaptive capacity.
- Daniel Nohrstedt
- , Jacob Hileman
- & Charles F. Parker
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Article
| Open AccessAseismic slip and recent ruptures of persistent asperities along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone
Physically plausible interseismic asperity models determined from GPS velocities suggest that the 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof and 2021 Mw 8.2 Chignik earthquakes ruptured distinct persistent asperities on the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone
- Bin Zhao
- , Roland Bürgmann
- & Qi Li
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Article
| Open AccessAmplification of downstream flood stage due to damming of fine-grained rivers
Dams constructed on fine-grained rivers cause an increase in flow resistance downstream, thereby amplifying, rather than reducing, flood stage.
- Hongbo Ma
- , Jeffrey A. Nittrouer
- & Baosheng Wu
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Article
| Open AccessRisk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy
The integration of risk analysis and spatial CGE modeling frameworks allowed for measuring the direct and indirect consequences of extreme events via novel probabilistic risk indicators which incorporate elements of uncertainty and systemic effects
- J. A. León
- , M. Ordaz
- & I. F. Araújo
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Article
| Open AccessInflated pyroclasts in proximal fallout deposits reveal abrupt transitions in eruption behaviour
Jones et al. identify a new type of volcanic deposit, inflated pyroclasts, that form by continued gas expansion post-deposition. They show how these deposits can be indicative of abrupt transitions in eruptive behaviour at mafic volcanoes.
- Thomas J. Jones
- , Yannick Le Moigne
- & Donald B. Dingwell
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Article
| Open Access22 years of satellite imagery reveal a major destabilization structure at Piton de la Fournaise
At Piton de la Fournaise volcano, satellite deformation allows to constrain the geometry of 57 magmatic intrusions. Versatile modeling reveals that a major spoon-shaped destabilization structure accommodates intrusions and seaward flank displacement.
- Quentin Dumont
- , Valérie Cayol
- & Aline Peltier
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Comment
| Open AccessCrowd-sourcing observations of volcanic eruptions during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall and Cumbre Vieja events
This study explores the scientific potential of crowdsourced observations during volcanic eruptions, using the 2021 Fagradalsfjall (Iceland) and Cumbre Vieja (Canary Islands) events as case studies.
- Fabian B. Wadsworth
- , Edward W. Llewellin
- & Alejandro Polo Santabárbara
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Article
| Open AccessNew seasonal pattern of pollution emerges from changing North American wildfires
Growing emissions from Pacific Northwest wildfires have increased atmospheric carbon monoxide in August, raising questions about potential health impacts as the seasonal pattern of air quality changes for large regions of North America.
- Rebecca R. Buchholz
- , Mijeong Park
- & Sheryl Magzamen
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Article
| Open AccessCreep-dilatancy development at a transform plate boundary
This study shows a direct evidence of pore pressure changes in seabed sediments associated with slow and transient slip along the North Anatolian Fault. This is a major contribution to our understanding of the role of slow-slip events in earthquake cycles.
- Nabil Sultan
- , Shane Murphy
- & Louis Géli
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Comment
| Open AccessFacilitating adoption of AI in natural disaster management through collaboration
Artificial intelligence can enhance our ability to manage natural disasters. However, understanding and addressing its limitations is required to realize its benefits. Here, we argue that interdisciplinary, multistakeholder, and international collaboration is needed for developing standards that facilitate its implementation.
- Monique M. Kuglitsch
- , Ivanka Pelivan
- & Elena Xoplaki
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| Open AccessAccelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity
The occurrence of flash droughts has attracted widespread attention due to their rapid onset. Here, the authors find that the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity further accelerates the rapid onset of flash droughts.
- Yamin Qing
- , Shuo Wang
- & Zong-Liang Yang
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Article
| Open AccessLimited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming
Experimental forecasts show that a disturbed stratospheric polar vortex was not to blame for the deadly North American cold air outbreak in February 2021 - but it may have acted to sustain weather patterns and increase predictability in early 2021.
- N. A. Davis
- , J. H. Richter
- & E. LaJoie
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Article
| Open AccessEarthquake breakdown energy scaling despite constant fracture energy
Earthquake breakdown energy is commonly interpreted as a proxy for fracture energy but is observed to scale with magnitude. Here the authors show that a scale-independent stress overshoot, as seen in the 3D dynamic earthquake rupture simulations, leads to comparable scaling despite constant fault fracture energy.
- Chun-Yu Ke
- , Gregory C. McLaskey
- & David S. Kammer
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Article
| Open AccessMelt stripping and agglutination of pyroclasts during the explosive eruption of low viscosity magmas
The pyroclast properties and features can provide insights into the dynamics of explosive eruptions of low viscosity magma. Here, the authors show how lava droplets, or pyroclasts are subject to melt removal and melt addition during transport in a gas jet and present a method to reconstruct eruption conditions from the pyroclast textures.
- Thomas J. Jones
- , James K. Russell
- & Lea Hollendonner
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Article
| Open AccessInvestigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe
The viability of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Europe is highly dependent on the magnitude of the ongoing earthquake and the ground-shaking threshold for alert issuance. The potential effectiveness of EEW is highest for Turkey, Italy, and Greece.
- Gemma Cremen
- , Carmine Galasso
- & Elisa Zuccolo
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Article
| Open AccessGranular porous landslide tsunami modelling – the 2014 Lake Askja flank collapse
Tsunamis are devastating events. They are especially difficult to predict, when generated by landslides. In this paper, the authors overcome this issue by modelling the landslide and the tsunami in a unified framework in unprecedented detail.
- Matthias Rauter
- , Sylvain Viroulet
- & Finn Løvholt
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Article
| Open AccessFault rock heterogeneity can produce fault weakness and reduce fault stability
This paper shows that faults comprised of heterogeneously distributed materials, as is typical for tectonic faults in nature, are weaker and more unstable than equivalent faults where the materials are homogeneously mixed together.
- John D. Bedford
- , Daniel R. Faulkner
- & Nadia Lapusta
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Article
| Open AccessOveremphasis on recovery inhibits community transformation and creates resilience traps
Building community resilience in the face of climate disasters is critical to achieving a sustainable future. Here, using the case study of community resilience during Hurricane Michael in 2018, the authors show that an overemphasis on recovery entrench ‘resilience traps’.
- Benjamin Rachunok
- & Roshanak Nateghi