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Article
| Open AccessPhysical understanding of the tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship
Tropical cyclone intensity is commonly measured by both central pressure and maximum wind speed, yet the physical relationship between the two is not understood. Here the authors show that the central pressure is an intensity measure that depends on maximum wind speed and the product of storm size and background rotation rate.
- Daniel R. Chavas
- , Kevin A. Reed
- & John A. Knaff
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Article
| Open AccessVolcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt
The degree to which human societies have responded to past climatic changes remains unclear. Here, using a novel combination of approaches, the authors show how volcanically-induced suppression of Nile summer flooding led to societal unrest in Ptolemaic Egypt (305–30 BCE).
- Joseph G. Manning
- , Francis Ludlow
- & Jennifer R. Marlon
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Article
| Open AccessTropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa
El Niño tends to follow 2 years after volcanic eruptions, but the physical mechanism behind this phenomenon is unclear. Here the authors use model simulations to show that a Pinatubo-like eruption cools tropical Africa and drives westerly wind anomalies in the Pacific favouring an El Niño response.
- Myriam Khodri
- , Takeshi Izumo
- & Michael J. McPhaden
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Article
| Open AccessInitial pulse of Siberian Traps sills as the trigger of the end-Permian mass extinction
Although the mass end-Permian extinction is linked to large igneous provinces, its trigger remains unclear. Here, the authors propose that the abrupt change from flood lavas to sills resulted in the heating of sediments and led to the release of large-scale greenhouse gases to drive the end-Permian extinction.
- S. D. Burgess
- , J. D. Muirhead
- & S. A. Bowring
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Article
| Open AccessHighly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami
Tsunamis can be an extremely hazardous event, but understanding their occurrence through past records remains challenging. Here, the authors document tsunami occurrence from a 7,400 year old record of tsunami deposits in a cave in Indonesia, helping us to reconstruct the frequency of earthquakes in the region.
- Charles M. Rubin
- , Benjamin P. Horton
- & Andrew C. Parnell
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Article
| Open AccessDehydration of subducting slow-spread oceanic lithosphere in the Lesser Antilles
During subduction water is transported into the mantle, but constraining its release remains challenging. Here, using seismic tomography of the Lesser Antilles arc, the authors track the multistage dehydration of the slab and its lateral variations associated with heterogeneous slab composition.
- Michele Paulatto
- , Mireille Laigle
- & Heidrun Kopp
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Article
| Open AccessUnderstanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
Uncertainties in contemporary extreme sea levels (ESL) from mean sea level rise (SLR) projections have been overlooked in broad-scale risk and adaptation studies. Here, the authors quantify the uncertainties in present-day global ESL estimates and find that they exceed those from global SLR projections.
- T. Wahl
- , I. D. Haigh
- & A. B. A. Slangen
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Article
| Open AccessWater scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century
Water scarcity threatens a growing number of global catchments. Here, the authors examine how human interventions (HI) affected water scarcity between 1971 and 2010 and find that HI caused increases in the average duration and occurrence of water scarcity for 32% and 34% of the global population, respectively.
- T.I.E. Veldkamp
- , Y. Wada
- & P. J. Ward
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Article
| Open AccessExtreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming
Record temperatures in mainland Southeast Asia in April 2016 had severe impacts on the population. Thirumalaiet al. show that all April extremes occur after El Niño years, and that global warming has increased the likelihood of such extremes.
- Kaustubh Thirumalai
- , Pedro N. DiNezio
- & Clara Deser
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Article
| Open AccessPost-supereruption recovery at Toba Caldera
Toba Caldera in Indonesia had one of the largest volcanic eruptions over the last 100 kyr and has since undergone periods of resurgence. Here, the authors present zircon and sediment age data showing resurgence started after the climactic eruption and lasted until 2.7 ka, advancing west and south.
- Adonara E. Mucek
- , Martin Danišík
- & Matthew A. Coble
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Article
| Open AccessExplosive eruption, flank collapse and megatsunami at Tenerife ca. 170 ka
Oceanic shield volcanoes flank failures can generate large tsunamis. Here, the authors provide evidence that two tsunamis impacted the coast of Tenerife 170 Ma, the first generated by volcano flank failure and the second following a debris avalanche of the edifice during an on-going ignimbrite-forming eruption.
- Raphaël Paris
- , Juan J. Coello Bravo
- & François Nauret
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Article
| Open AccessProgressive approach to eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy
Forecasting eruptions at large calderas remains difficult. Here, the authors apply an elastic-brittle failure model to Campi Flegrei to show that successive episodes of unrest lead to a long-term accumulation of stress in the crust, such that conditions may be becoming more favourable to eruption.
- Christopher R.J. Kilburn
- , Giuseppe De Natale
- & Stefano Carlino
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Article
| Open AccessEnhanced biennial variability in the Pacific due to Atlantic capacitor effect
Biennial variability has intensified in the Pacific in recent decades, but the cause of this increase is not fully understood. Here, with statistical analyses and numerical experiments, the authors show that an Atlantic capacitor effect has given rise to this enhanced biennial variability since the early 1990s.
- Lei Wang
- , Jin-Yi Yu
- & Houk Paek
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Article
| Open AccessComplex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard
El Niño and La Niña (ENSO) events influence global river flow and are often used as an early indicator of potential flooding. Here, the authors show that the probability of ENSO-driven flood hazard is more complex than is often perceived, and highlight the importance of considering hydrological response.
- R. Emerton
- , H. L. Cloke
- & F. Pappenberger
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Article
| Open AccessExtreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015–2016 El Niño
ENSO end members El Niño and La Niña are linked to elevated coastal hazards across the Pacific region. Here, the authors show that the wave conditions and coastal response for the 2015–16 El Niño indicate that it was one of the most significant events of the last 145 years.
- Patrick L. Barnard
- , Daniel Hoover
- & Katherine A. Serafin
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Article
| Open AccessHumans have already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall
Intermittent rainfall changes over the Pacific Ocean can profoundly disrupt lives and ecosystems in many locations. Here, the authors show that the risk of such changes has increased, and that the risk could – even with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions - remain elevated for decades to come.
- Scott B. Power
- , François P. D. Delage
- & Bradley F. Murphy
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Article
| Open AccessLarge fault slip peaking at trench in the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake
The 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake slip occurred on the shallowest part of the megathrust, but the nature of the shallow slip has been poorly constrained. Here, the authors model bathymetry differences before and after the earthquake to determine that the slip exceeded 60 m increasing towards the trench.
- Tianhaozhe Sun
- , Kelin Wang
- & Jiangheng He
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Review Article
| Open AccessThe role of space-based observation in understanding and responding to active tectonics and earthquakes
Earthquake prone areas are now routinely monitored by satellites, which can map surface rupture and distribution of slip on faults. Here Elliottet al. review the latest advances in the field of spacebased earthquake observations showing how this is used to understand active tectonic processes.
- J.R. Elliott
- , R.J. Walters
- & T.J. Wright
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Article
| Open AccessObserving eruptions of gas-rich compressible magmas from space
Satellite observations are an important tool in volcano monitoring, but observations such as ground deformation and gas emissions are treated independently. Here, the authors present a model coupling them through their link to magma volatile contents and storage depths prior to eruption
- Brendan McCormick Kilbride
- , Marie Edmonds
- & Juliet Biggs
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Article
| Open AccessRapid laccolith intrusion driven by explosive volcanic eruption
Magmatic intrusions are thought to precede volcanic eruptions. However, Castro et al. present evidence that a laccolith was emplaced during the 2011 rhyolitic eruption of Cordón Caulle showing that eruptions may force the intrusion of magma into the shallow crust posing an unrecognized volcanic hazard.
- Jonathan M. Castro
- , Benoit Cordonnier
- & Yves Feisel
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Article
| Open AccessPrompt gravity signal induced by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake
Earthquakes have been theorised to produce gravity signals that may arrive before seismic waves, but until now they had not been detected. Montagneret al. have detected prompt gravity signals from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake thus allowing an early warning of earthquakes before seismic wave arrival.
- Jean-Paul Montagner
- , Kévin Juhel
- & Philippe Lognonné
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Article
| Open AccessPost-eruptive flooding of Santorini caldera and implications for tsunami generation
The Bronze Age eruption of Santorini is known to have generated tsunamis with caldera collapse as the likely mechanism. However, new bathymetric and seismic data presented by Nomikou et al. show that the entry of pyroclastic flows into the sea is the most likely tsunami-generating mechanism at Santorini.
- P. Nomikou
- , T. H. Druitt
- & M. M. Parks
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Article
| Open AccessA pulse of mid-Pleistocene rift volcanism in Ethiopia at the dawn of modern humans
Past volcanic eruptions along the densely populated Ethiopian Rift valley remain poorly constrained despite the present day hazard. Hutchison et al. show that a large volcanic flare up along a 200 km section of the rift occurred between 320–170 ka dramatically affecting the landscape and hominin population.
- William Hutchison
- , Raffaella Fusillo
- & Andrew T. Calvert
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Article
| Open AccessRepeating microearthquake sequences interact predominantly through postseismic slip
Small repeating earthquakes can be used to understand fault properties such as friction. Here, Lui et al. model the interaction between repeating earthquakes and find that postseismic creep dominates as the mechanism, which may help constrain the frictional properties of creeping fault segments.
- Semechah K. Y. Lui
- & Nadia Lapusta