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Limited impact of hydrogen co-firing on prolonging fossil-based power generation under low emissions scenarios
Effects of hydrogen and ammonia co-firing with fossil power generation on decarbonization scenario are assessed. Co-fired generation is limited to <1% because of higher cost of hydrogen. It will not delay the phase-out of fossil-based generators.
- Ken Oshiro
- & Shinichiro Fujimori
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Potential and electric double-layer effect in electrocatalytic urea synthesis
Electrochemical urea synthesis presents a promising alternative to conventional synthesis methods, yet the elusive mechanism hindered its development. Here, the authors take copper as an example to explore the potential and electric double-layer effect in electrocatalytic urea synthesis, and reveal two essential strategies to promote the efficiency of urea synthesis.
- Qian Wu
- , Chencheng Dai
- & Zhichuan J. Xu
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A cross-scale framework for evaluating flexibility values of battery and fuel cell electric vehicles
Electrified transportation exhibits great potential to provide flexibility. This article analyzed and compared the flexibility values of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles for planning and operating interdependent electricity and hydrogen supply chains.
- Ruixue Liu
- , Guannan He
- & Benben Jiang
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Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems
Here, the authors adopt systemwide EROI to assess the sustainability risks of nine global energy transition scenarios. The EROI of fossil fuel dominated scenarios tend to approach the upper limit of the net energy cliff, posing higher sustainability risks.
- Hasret Sahin
- , A. A. Solomon
- & Christian Breyer
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Global transcontinental power pools for low-carbon electricity
By building transcontinental power pools, Yang and colleagues find global electricity demand can be 100% met by renewables, at an affordable cost.
- Haozhe Yang
- , Ranjit Deshmukh
- & Sangwon Suh
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Collaborative and privacy-preserving retired battery sorting for profitable direct recycling via federated machine learning
Unsorted retired batteries pose recycling challenges due to diverse cathodes. Here, the authors propose a privacy-preserving machine learning system that enables accurate sorting with minimal data, important for a sustainable battery recycling industry.
- Shengyu Tao
- , Haizhou Liu
- & Hongbin Sun
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A cost comparison of various hourly-reliable and net-zero hydrogen production pathways in the United States
Considering equivalent emissions and reliability attributes for fossil- and electricity-based hydrogen production solutions, results suggest grid-tied electricity-based options can be lowest cost by the next decade if natural gas leakage is high for the USA.
- Justin M. Bracci
- , Evan D. Sherwin
- & Adam R. Brandt
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Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility
Rapid adoption of zero-emission vehicles with a concurrent transition to clean electricity is essential to achieve U.S. transportation decarbonization goals. Managing travel demand can ease this transition by reducing the need for clean electricity supply. @cghoehne, @nrel, #NRELMobility
- Christopher Hoehne
- , Matteo Muratori
- & Ookie Ma
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Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use
This study quantifies mid-21st century hourly building energy use in 277 urban areas in the USA, revealing spatially and temporally heterogeneous changes influenced by future climate, population dynamics, and electric power sector decarbonization.
- Chenghao Wang
- , Jiyun Song
- & Robert B. Jackson
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The momentum of the solar energy transition
Nijsse and colleagues find that due to technological trajectories set in motion by past policy, a global irreversible solar tipping point may have passed where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies. Uncertainties arise, however, over grid stability in a renewables-dominated power system, the availability of sufficient finance in underdeveloped economies, the capacity of supply chains and political resistance from regions that lose employment.
- Femke J. M. M. Nijsse
- , Jean-Francois Mercure
- & Hector Pollitt
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A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage
This study indicates that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel in China’s power generation system could reduce the power shortage rate by up to 9% in 2050, and increase system resilience during weather events relative to a zero fossil fuel system.
- Jing-Li Fan
- , Zezheng Li
- & Bo Shen
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The impact of methane leakage on the role of natural gas in the European energy transition
Cost-optimal European energy transition with CO2 and methane neutrality objective is studied. While renewables are the key drivers of climate neutrality, the continuous role of natural gas requires high levels of both CO2 and methane abatement.
- Behrang Shirizadeh
- , Manuel Villavicencio
- & Gunhild A. Reigstad
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Inherent spatiotemporal uncertainty of renewable power in China
Renewable uncertainty analysis is vital for stochastic-aware research. This study generates a benchmark dataset of year-long hourly renewable prediction errors in China, and reveals the law of the spatiotemporal distribution of renewable uncertainty.
- Jianxiao Wang
- , Liudong Chen
- & Guannan He
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Multiscale dynamics of charging and plating in graphite electrodes coupling operando microscopy and phase-field modelling
Improved understanding of the spatial dynamics in graphite electrodes is needed to improve fast-charging protocols for Li-ion batteries. Here, authors highlight that lithiation heterogeneity leads to early lithium plating onset and find distinct relaxation behaviors at various states of charge.
- Xuekun Lu
- , Marco Lagnoni
- & Paul R. Shearing
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How to make climate-neutral aviation fly
Europe’s aviation must reduce more than just flight CO2 emissions to achieve net-zero. Synthetic fuels and carbon capture and storage could help but decreasing air traffic is crucial due to non-CO2 climate impacts and resource constraints.
- Romain Sacchi
- , Viola Becattini
- & Marco Mazzotti
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Endogenous learning for green hydrogen in a sector-coupled energy model for Europe
This study highlights the importance of including learning-by-doing for hydrogen production in energy models. It reveals that scaling up renewable capacities and electrolysis faster than the EU’s REPowerEU Plan can be cost-effective under strict climate targets, reducing hydrogen production costs and shifting from grey to green hydrogen.
- Elisabeth Zeyen
- , Marta Victoria
- & Tom Brown
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Low-spin state of Fe in Fe-doped NiOOH electrocatalysts
Although Fe doping boosts the electrocatalytic performance of NiOOH materials for the oxygen evolution reaction, the underlying mechanism has been not well understood. Here, the authors reveal Fe low-spin state configuration as a main driver of this electrochemical phenomenon.
- Zheng-Da He
- , Rebekka Tesch
- & Piotr M. Kowalski
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Assessment of the technological viability of photoelectrochemical devices for oxygen and fuel production on Moon and Mars
Long-term space missions to the Moon and Mars rely on sunlight as an energy source. Here, authors assess the performance of monolithic photoelectrochemical devices for light-assisted O2 and fuel production on the Moon and Mars as potential complementary technologies to existing life support systems.
- Byron Ross
- , Sophia Haussener
- & Katharina Brinkert
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Deep learning to estimate lithium-ion battery state of health without additional degradation experiments
Estimation of Li-ion battery state of health is crucial but requires time- and resource-consuming degradation tests for development. Here, authors propose a deep-learning method that enables accurate estimations without additional tests, ensuring absolute errors of less than 3% for 89.4% of samples.
- Jiahuan Lu
- , Rui Xiong
- & Fengchun Sun
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Global green hydrogen-based steel opportunities surrounding high quality renewable energy and iron ore deposits
Facility-level analysis of green H2- based steel production demonstrates co-location of high-quality renewables and iron ore resources is imperative for cost minimisation.
- Alexandra Devlin
- , Jannik Kossen
- & Aidong Yang
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The effect of sustainable mobility transition policies on cumulative urban transport emissions and energy demand
A rapid and large-scale reduction in car use, within a well-designed policy mix, is necessary to achieve short-term emission targets and reduce energy demand. Here, the authors introduce the Urban Transport Policy Model and demonstrate, using London as a case study, that current policies will not meet climate targets.
- Lisa Winkler
- , Drew Pearce
- & Oytun Babacan
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A low-carbon electricity sector in Europe risks sustaining regional inequalities in benefits and vulnerabilities
The low-carbon electricity sector in Europe can bring overall benefits of new investment, employment, and decreased emissions, but could sustain regional inequalities between Northern and Southern Europe.
- Jan-Philipp Sasse
- & Evelina Trutnevyte
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Carbon reduction technology pathways for existing buildings in eight cities
Here, the authors perform analysis of technology pathways for existing buildings using urban building energy models developed with cities, showing that shallow and deep retrofits along with onsite photovoltaic and grid decarbonization can help achieve carbon reduction targets.
- Yu Qian Ang
- , Zachary Michael Berzolla
- & Christoph F. Reinhart
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U.S. West Coast droughts and heat waves exacerbate pollution inequality and can evade emission control policies
Heat waves and droughts increase air pollution from power plants in California, which disproportionately damages counties with a majority of people of color. Droughts cause chronic increases in pollution damages. Heat waves are responsible for the days with the highest damages.
- Amir Zeighami
- , Jordan Kern
- & August A. Bruno
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Life cycle net energy assessment of sustainable H2 production and hydrogenation of chemicals in a coupled photoelectrochemical device
Integrating green hydrogen production with the generation of valuable chemicals has the potential to increase the competitiveness of the system. Here, the authors quantitatively evaluate the energetic benefit of coupling hydrogen production with the hydrogenation of feedstocks in a photoelectrochemical device.
- Xinyi Zhang
- , Michael Schwarze
- & Fatwa F. Abdi
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Understanding variability in petroleum jet fuel life cycle greenhouse gas emissions to inform aviation decarbonization
This study presents a global well-to-wake assessment of jet fuel greenhouse gas emissions with a range of 81.1-94.8 gCO2e MJ−1. Understanding this variability can improve decision-making amid the transition to decarbonizing aviation.
- Liang Jing
- , Hassan M. El-Houjeiri
- & Joule A. Bergerson
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Electricity consumption variation versus economic structure during COVID-19 on metropolitan statistical areas in the US
In this paper the authors construct estimates of electricity consumption changes at the metropolitan level across the continental U.S., during the initial two months of the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating variations in electricity consumption patterns based on several factors.
- Jinning Wang
- , Fangxing Li
- & Trey Mingee
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Economy-wide evaluation of CO2 and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States
Electrification is a decarbonization strategy that has the potential to reduce pollutant emissions and improve air quality. Here the authors evaluate CO2 and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios in the United States and find that electrification can substantially lower CO2 and improve ozone and fine particulate matter regionally.
- John E. T. Bistline
- , Geoffrey Blanford
- & Greg Yarwood
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The role of renewables for rapid transitioning of the power sector across states in India
A new study assesses the feasibility of a fully renewable based power system by 2050 across India, finding this option to be cost competitive with the status quo and with zero GHG emissions.
- Ashish Gulagi
- , Manish Ram
- & Christian Breyer
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Inequality can double the energy required to secure universal decent living
In exploring the energy required to provide decent living for all, the authors find the costs of inequality to be far greater than that of population growth. Nonetheless, population growth remains important for other reasons.
- Joel Millward-Hopkins
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Cross-cutting scenarios and strategies for designing decarbonization pathways in the transport sector toward carbon neutrality
New study shows how region-specific policy under the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework may aid in realizing a deep decarbonization in the transport sector and assist in achieving China’s carbon neutrality goals.
- Runsen Zhang
- & Tatsuya Hanaoka
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Simulated co-optimization of renewable energy and desalination systems in Neom, Saudi Arabia
Co-optimization of renewable power and water desalination systems for Neom, a futuristic seaside city in an arid region, results in more pronounced cost investment savings for a high share of renewable sources.
- Jefferson A. Riera
- , Ricardo M. Lima
- & Omar Knio
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Electrifying passenger road transport in India requires near-term electricity grid decarbonisation
India’s plans to electrify transport is complicated by its reliance on coal-power. Here the authors call for diverse policy and technology solutions, including a focus on cleaner grids, electric 2-wheelers, and hybrid 4-wheelers in the near-term.
- Amir F. N. Abdul-Manan
- , Victor Gordillo Zavaleta
- & Amer A. Amer
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Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework
China’s transition path toward carbon neutrality remains uncertain. Here the authors combine Monte Carlo analysis with an energy-environment-economy model to present a probabilistic view of China’s energy transition across 3,000 cases.
- Shu Zhang
- & Wenying Chen
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High resolution global spatiotemporal assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential for renewable electricity generation
Though a global assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaic (RTSPV) technology’s potential and the cost is needed to estimate its impact, existing methods demand extensive data processing. Here, the authors report a machine learning method to realize a high-resolution global assessment of RTSPV potential.
- Siddharth Joshi
- , Shivika Mittal
- & James Glynn
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Element selection for crystalline inorganic solid discovery guided by unsupervised machine learning of experimentally explored chemistry
Machine learning has the potential to significantly speed-up the discovery of new materials in synthetic materials chemistry. Here the authors combine unsupervised machine learning and crystal structure prediction to predict a novel quaternary lithium solid electrolyte that is then synthesized.
- Andrij Vasylenko
- , Jacinthe Gamon
- & Matthew J. Rosseinsky
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Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement
Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions targets. Here, the authors show that a country’s potential for negative emissions and methodological issues affect when countries can reach net-zero, calling for clear internationally agreed definitions and accounting methods.
- Heleen L. van Soest
- , Michel G. J. den Elzen
- & Detlef P. van Vuuren
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Open database analysis of scaling and spatio-temporal properties of power grid frequencies
Power grid frequencies mirror the state of the grid. Here, Rydin Gorjão et al. analyse measurements of power grid frequencies across areas and continents and uncover scaling laws of their fluctuations and spatio-temporal dynamics, which could aid the design, operation and control of power systems.
- Leonardo Rydin Gorjão
- , Richard Jumar
- & Benjamin Schäfer
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Early decarbonisation of the European energy system pays off
For a given carbon budget between 2020 and 2050, different transformation rates for the European energy system yield starkly different results. Here the authors show that strongly reducing emissions in the first decade is cost-effective and entails additional benefits.
- Marta Victoria
- , Kun Zhu
- & Martin Greiner
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Regional impacts of electricity system transition in Central Europe until 2035
Implementation of Central European electricity targets will redistribute regional benefits and burdens. Here the authors show that the aims of cost-efficiency, regional equality, and renewable electricity generation have vastly different implementation pathways, impacts, and trade-offs.
- Jan-Philipp Sasse
- & Evelina Trutnevyte
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Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability
The intermittency of solar resources is one of the primary challenges for the large-scale integration of the renewable energy. Here Yin et al. used satellite data and climate model outputs to evaluate the geographic patterns of future solar power reliability, highlighting the tradeoff between the maximum potential power and the power reliability.
- Jun Yin
- , Annalisa Molini
- & Amilcare Porporato
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Assessment of lithium criticality in the global energy transition and addressing policy gaps in transportation
The long-term availability of lithium in the event of significant demand growth of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries is important to assess. Here the authors assess lithium demand and supply challenges of a long-term energy transition using 18 scenarios, developed by combining 8 demand and 4 supply variations.
- Peter Greim
- , A. A. Solomon
- & Christian Breyer
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An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon
The allocation of remaining fossil fuel production has stimulated a discussion around issues of equitable allocation but the implications of different options are unclear. Here the authors show that shifting production to low-medium human development regions has limited economic benefits under strong climate policy.
- Steve Pye
- , Siân Bradley
- & Paul Ekins
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The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States
Cooling demand project largely ignores the role of humidity. Here the authors show that in many of the high energy consuming states, projections based on air temperature alone underestimates cooling demand by as much as 10–15% under both present and future climate scenarios, due to the neglected role of humidity.
- Debora Maia-Silva
- , Rohini Kumar
- & Roshanak Nateghi
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Air pollution control strategies directly limiting national health damages in the US
Decoupling emission reduction target determination, air pollution modelling, and health benefit estimation complicates control strategy design. Here an integrated approach identifies strategies to reduce health damages of air pollution, showing that benefits can be achieved cost-effectively by electrifying sources with high primary PM2.5 emission intensities.
- Yang Ou
- , J. Jason West
- & Daniel H. Loughlin
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Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies
There lacks a consistent and holistic evaluation of co-benefits of different mitigation pathways in studies on Integrated Assessment Models. Here the authors quantify environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of a portfolio of alternative power sector decarbonisation pathways and show that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice.
- Gunnar Luderer
- , Michaja Pehl
- & Edgar G. Hertwich
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Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals
The plant-by-plant retirement needs are not well-understood yet to achieve the rapid transition away from coal use. Here the authors found that operational lifetimes of existing units must be reduced to approximately 35 years to keep warming well below 2 °C or 20 years for 1.5 °C, even if no new capacity comes online.
- Ryna Yiyun Cui
- , Nathan Hultman
- & Christine Shearer
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Matters Arising
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Bias in energy system models with uniform cost of capital assumption
- Florian Egli
- , Bjarne Steffen
- & Tobias S. Schmidt
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Role of flying cars in sustainable mobility
Vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (VTOLs), or “flying cars” can shorten commute time and could play a niche role in sustainable mobility. The authors estimate that over long distances, fully-loaded electric VTOL taxis could result in fewer GHG emissions than average occupancy ground-based cars.
- Akshat Kasliwal
- , Noah J. Furbush
- & Gregory A. Keoleian
Electric vehicle battery chemistry affects supply chain disruption vulnerabilities