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| Open AccessA cost comparison of various hourly-reliable and net-zero hydrogen production pathways in the United States
Considering equivalent emissions and reliability attributes for fossil- and electricity-based hydrogen production solutions, results suggest grid-tied electricity-based options can be lowest cost by the next decade if natural gas leakage is high for the USA.
- Justin M. Bracci
- , Evan D. Sherwin
- & Adam R. Brandt
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| Open AccessThe asymmetric effects of climate risk on higher-moment connectedness among carbon, energy and metals markets
Here the authors explore the connectedness of the carbon, energy, and metals markets. They find asymmetric effects of climate risk with higher physical risk impacts on upward risk spillovers, and greater transition risk effects on the downside risk of kurtosis connectedness.
- Yuqin Zhou
- , Shan Wu
- & Lavinia Rognone
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| Open AccessConcentration of asset owners exposed to power sector stranded assets may trigger climate policy resistance
Von Dulong analyzes owners and incidence of asset stranding in the power sector globally. She shows that Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the US are highly exposed to stranded assets, especially coal plants and explores the linkages between asset stranding and climate policy resistance.
- Angelika von Dulong
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| Open AccessLocation is a major barrier for transferring US fossil fuel employment to green jobs
This study tests the case for the absorption of current fossil fuel workers in emerging green jobs from the perspective of their skills and location. It finds location to be a barrier in a Just Transition for these workers.
- Junghyun Lim
- , Michaël Aklin
- & Morgan R. Frank
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| Open AccessThe impact of methane leakage on the role of natural gas in the European energy transition
Cost-optimal European energy transition with CO2 and methane neutrality objective is studied. While renewables are the key drivers of climate neutrality, the continuous role of natural gas requires high levels of both CO2 and methane abatement.
- Behrang Shirizadeh
- , Manuel Villavicencio
- & Gunhild A. Reigstad
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| Open AccessContinuous estimation of power system inertia using convolutional neural networks
The increase of intermittent energy sources and renewable energy penetration generally results in reduced overall inertia, making power systems susceptible to disturbances. Here, authors develop an AI-based method to estimate inertia in real-time and test its performance on a heterogeneous power network.
- Daniele Linaro
- , Federico Bizzarri
- & Angelo M. Brambilla
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| Open AccessThe role of renewables for rapid transitioning of the power sector across states in India
A new study assesses the feasibility of a fully renewable based power system by 2050 across India, finding this option to be cost competitive with the status quo and with zero GHG emissions.
- Ashish Gulagi
- , Manish Ram
- & Christian Breyer
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| Open AccessComparing the levelized cost of electric vehicle charging options in Europe
Charging costs are important for the diffusion of electric vehicles as required to decarbonize transport. Here, the authors show large variance of electrical vehicle charging costs across 30 European countries and charging options, suggesting different policy options to reduce charging costs.
- Lukas Lanz
- , Bessie Noll
- & Bjarne Steffen
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| Open AccessThe role of natural gas in reaching net-zero emissions in the electric sector
Natural gas and carbon removal can play roles in reaching net-zero emissions in the U.S. electric sector and can lower decarbonization costs, though wind and solar have higher generation shares for most regions and scenarios.
- John E. T. Bistline
- & David T. Young
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| Open AccessCost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China
This study indicates that approximately 5.8 TW of wind and solar photovoltaic capacity would be required to achieve carbon neutrality in China’s power system by 2050. The electricity supply costs would increase by 19.9% or 9.6 CNY¢/kWh.
- Zhenyu Zhuo
- , Ershun Du
- & Chongqing Kang
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| Open AccessReversible Power-to-Gas systems for energy conversion and storage
Reversible Power-to-Gas systems can convert electricity to hydrogen at times of ample and inexpensive power supply and operate in reverse to deliver electricity during times when power is relatively scarce. Here, the authors show that such systems can already be economically viable relative to current hydrogen prices in the context of the German and Texas electricity markets.
- Gunther Glenk
- & Stefan Reichelstein
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| Open AccessCOVID-19, Green Deal and recovery plan permanently change emissions and prices in EU ETS Phase IV
This paper finds that the EU’s 2030 reduction target of -55% might correspond to EU ETS allowance prices between 45 and 94 e/ton CO2 today, while the invalidation rule reduces carbon emissions to 14.2 to 18.3 GtCO2 over the EU ETS’ remaining lifetime.
- Kenneth Bruninx
- & Marten Ovaere
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| Open AccessPlant conversions and abatement technologies cannot prevent stranding of power plant assets in 2 °C scenarios
Many existing and in-the-pipeline fossil-fuel power plants will have to be decommissioned or underused to avoid climate change beyond 2 °C, even under optimistic technology assumptions and after accounting for emission-reducing conversions.
- Yangsiyu Lu
- , Francois Cohen
- & Alexander Pfeiffer
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| Open AccessEnergy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions
Despite global initiatives to reach net-zero CO2 emissions, the tradeoffs of energy systems to reach that goal remain understudied. Here the authors analyze all net-zero scenarios used for the 2018 IPCC report and quantify the role of renewable energy, fuels, and emissions in attaining a zero CO2 world.
- Julianne DeAngelo
- , Inês Azevedo
- & Steven J. Davis
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| Open AccessNo COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector
COVID-19 has decreased power sector emissions globally and in the United States. Here the authors assess whether such reductions would have occurred in the United States in the absence of the pandemic, as well as the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022.
- Max Luke
- , Priyanshi Somani
- & Stephen J. Lee
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| Open Access1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
Established climate mitigation modelling relies on controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, but neglects to consider degrowth scenarios. Here the authors show that degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability and thus need to be thoroughly assessed.
- Lorenz T. Keyßer
- & Manfred Lenzen
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| Open AccessPower sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean
Substantial investment will be required in renewables to implement climate change mitigation. Here, the authors focus on Latin America and the Caribbean and find that climate impacts on renewables would result in additional investments $12-114 billion by 2100.
- Silvia R. Santos da Silva
- , Mohamad I. Hejazi
- & Chris R. Vernon
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| Open AccessA framework to predict the price of energy for the end-users with applications to monetary and energy policies
Global energy transformation requires quantifying the "price of energy" and studying its evolution. Here the authors present a predictive framework that calculates the average US price of energy, estimating future energy demands for up to four years with excellent accuracy, designing and optimizing energy and monetary policies.
- Stefanos G. Baratsas
- , Alexander M. Niziolek
- & Efstratios N. Pistikopoulos
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| Open AccessAn equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon
The allocation of remaining fossil fuel production has stimulated a discussion around issues of equitable allocation but the implications of different options are unclear. Here the authors show that shifting production to low-medium human development regions has limited economic benefits under strong climate policy.
- Steve Pye
- , Siân Bradley
- & Paul Ekins
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| Open AccessEnergy transformation cost for the Japanese mid-century strategy
Computable General Equilibrium models can hardly decouple economic growth and energy consumption while energy system models can hardly predict macroeconomic implications of energy system changes. Here the authors investigated the macroeconomic implications of consistently dealing with energy systems and the stability of further power generation and show that GDP losses were significantly lower than those in the conventional economic model by more than 50% in 2050, while industry and service sector energy consumption are the main factors causing these differences.
- Shinichiro Fujimori
- , Ken Oshiro
- & Tomoko Hasegawa
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessBias in energy system models with uniform cost of capital assumption
- Florian Egli
- , Bjarne Steffen
- & Tobias S. Schmidt
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| Open AccessAmplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change
Future energy demand maybe induced by climate change and subject to uncertainties arising from different extent of climate change and socioeconomic development. Here the authors follow a top-down approach and combined the recently developed socio-economic and climate scenarios and found that across 210 scenarios, moderate warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation by 25–58% between 2010 and 2050.
- Bas J. van Ruijven
- , Enrica De Cian
- & Ian Sue Wing
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| Open AccessThe emergence of cost effective battery storage
It is important to examine the economic viability of battery storage investments. Here the authors introduced the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage metric to estimate the breakeven cost for energy storage and found that behind-the-meter storage installations will be financially advantageous in both Germany and California.
- Stephen Comello
- & Stefan Reichelstein
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| Open AccessRadical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps
The technical and economic viability of renewable energy (RE) based energy system is understudied. Here the authors utilized a LUT Energy System Transition Model to indicate that a carbon neutral electricity system can be built in all global regions in an economically feasible way but requires evolutionary changes for the following 35 years.
- Dmitrii Bogdanov
- , Javier Farfan
- & Christian Breyer
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| Open AccessInherent potential of steelmaking to contribute to decarbonisation targets via industrial carbon capture and storage
Carbon budget is diminishing to comply with the target under 2 °C scenario. Facing the limited capacity to improve energy efficiency, the authors show that steelmaking with inherent decarbonisation process can potentially help achieve 2050 emission reduction targets under 2 °C scenario before 2030.
- Sicong Tian
- , Jianguo Jiang
- & Vasilije Manovic
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| Open AccessBurden on hydropower units for short-term balancing of renewable power systems
Quantifying burden on hydropower units for balancing variable renewable energy sources has been uncertain and difficult. Herein Yang et al. propose a framework and characterize the burden, performance and compensation of hydropower regulation of renewable power systems.
- Weijia Yang
- , Per Norrlund
- & Urban Lundin