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Open Access
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Article
| Open AccessAftershocks are fluid-driven and decay rates controlled by permeability dynamics
In this study, the authors propose that a fluid rich environment is necessary to generate long-lasting aftershock sequences. Based on this premise, the study presents a theory for modeling fluid-driven earthquake sequences
- Stephen A. Miller
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Article
| Open AccessTesserae on Venus may preserve evidence of fluvial erosion
The authors here use Magellan data to interpret geomorphological features on Venus and present a strong hypothesis for fluvial erosion.
- S. Khawja
- , R. E. Ernst
- & L. M. MacLellan
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Comment
| Open AccessA framework for research linking weather, climate and COVID-19
Early studies of weather, seasonality, and environmental influences on COVID-19 have yielded inconsistent and confusing results. To provide policy-makers and the public with meaningful and actionable environmentally-informed COVID-19 risk estimates, the research community must meet robust methodological and communication standards.
- Benjamin F. Zaitchik
- , Neville Sweijd
- & Xavier Rodó
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Article
| Open AccessThe thermal response of soil microbial methanogenesis decreases in magnitude with changing temperature
Soil microbes produce more methane as temperatures warm, but it is unclear if they acclimate to heat, or keep producing more of the greenhouse gas. Here the authors use artificial wetland warming experiments to show that after initial spikes in methane emissions after warming, emissions level out over time.
- Hongyang Chen
- , Ting Zhu
- & Ming Nie
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Article
| Open AccessBrightness modulations of our nearest terrestrial planet Venus reveal atmospheric super-rotation rather than surface features
Establishing diagnostics for terrestrial exoplanets are crucial for their characterization. Here, the authors show brightness modulations of Venus are caused by planetary-scale waves superimposed on the super-rotating winds can be used to detect existence of an atmosphere if detected at an exoplanet.
- Y. J. Lee
- , A. García Muñoz
- & S. Watanabe
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Article
| Open AccessDNA nano-pocket for ultra-selective uranyl extraction from seawater
The extraction of metals from seawater is an area of great potential; especially for the extraction of uranium. Here, the authors report on the synthesis of a DNA based uranium adsorbent with high selectivity and demonstrate the potential for the DNA based extraction of high-value soluble minerals from seawater.
- Yihui Yuan
- , Tingting Liu
- & Ning Wang
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Article
| Open AccessTrans-basin Atlantic-Pacific connections further weakened by common model Pacific mean SST biases
Many climate models failed to reproduce the eastern Pacific cooling that has been linked to slower warming in the early 20th century. Here, the authors present a feedback mechanism between the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic which contributes to this bias as it further dampens the Pacific cooling response in models.
- Chen Li
- , Dietmar Dommenget
- & Shayne McGregor
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Perspective
| Open AccessRedox-informed models of global biogeochemical cycles
Marine microbial activities fuel biogeochemical cycles that impact the climate, but global models do not account for the myriad physiological processes that microbes perform. Here the authors argue for a model framework that reinterprets the ocean as physics coupled to biologically-driven redox chemistry.
- Emily J. Zakem
- , Martin F. Polz
- & Michael J. Follows
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Article
| Open AccessStagnant forearc mantle wedge inferred from mapping of shear-wave anisotropy using S-net seafloor seismometers
Knowledge of shear-wave anisotropy is important to understanding the structure and dynamics of the subduction zone mantle wedge. Here, the authors find unambiguous evidence that forearc anisotropy resides in the upper-plate crust, while weak anisotropy in the most seaward part of the mantle wedge indicates decoupling from the slab
- Naoki Uchida
- , Junichi Nakajima
- & Youichi Asano
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Article
| Open AccessSpace station biomining experiment demonstrates rare earth element extraction in microgravity and Mars gravity
Rare earth elements are used in electronics, but increase in demand could lead to low supply. Here the authors conduct experiments on the International Space Station and show microbes can extract rare elements from rocks at low gravity, a finding that could extend mining potential to other planets.
- Charles S. Cockell
- , Rosa Santomartino
- & René Demets
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Article
| Open AccessA circumpolar dust conveyor in the glacial Southern Ocean
Dust deposition brings iron that fuels ocean productivity, a connection impacting climate over geological time. Here the authors use sediment cores to show that in contrast to dynamics today, during the last glacial maximum westerly winds shuttled dust from Australia and South America around Antarctica and into the South Pacific.
- Torben Struve
- , Katharina Pahnke
- & Gisela Winckler
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Article
| Open AccessTree mode of death and mortality risk factors across Amazon forests
Tree mortality has been shown to be the dominant control on carbon storage in Amazon forests, but little is known of how and why Amazon forest trees die. Here the authors analyse a large Amazon-wide dataset, finding that fast-growing species face greater mortality risk, but that slower-growing individuals within a species are more likely to die, regardless of size.
- Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert
- , Oliver L. Phillips
- & David Galbraith
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Perspective
| Open AccessThe cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting
- M. R. Patrick
- , B. F. Houghton
- & T. Elias
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Article
| Open AccessEnhanced fish production during a period of extreme global warmth
Fish production is predicted to decrease with anthropogenic global warming. Here the authors analyse fish fossil assemblages from 62–46 My old deep-sea sediments and instead find a positive correlation between fish production and ocean temperature over geological timescales, which a data-constrained model explains in terms of trophic transfer efficiency and primary production.
- Gregory L. Britten
- & Elizabeth C. Sibert
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Article
| Open AccessEpidemiological hypothesis testing using a phylogeographic and phylodynamic framework
Classical epidemiological approaches have been limited in their ability to formally test hypotheses. Here, Dellicour et al. illustrate how phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses can be leveraged for hypothesis testing in molecular epidemiology using West Nile virus in North America as an example.
- Simon Dellicour
- , Sebastian Lequime
- & Philippe Lemey
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Article
| Open AccessClimate reverses directionality in the richness–abundance relationship across the World’s main forest biomes
Correlations between tree species diversity and tree abundance are well established, but the direction of the relationship is unresolved. Here the authors use path models to estimate plausible causal pathways in the diversity-abundance relationship across 23 global forests regions, finding a lack of general support for a positive diversity-abundance relationship, which is prevalent in the most productive lands on Earth only
- Jaime Madrigal-González
- , Joaquín Calatayud
- & Markus Stoffel
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Article
| Open AccessDetermining the current size and state of subvolcanic magma reservoirs
This study makes use of the total spread of zircon ages and trace elements to study the thermal evolution of magmatic systems. Applied to Nevado de Toluca, the authors determine the size of its subvolcanic magma reservoir and assess its potential of re-activation.
- Gregor Weber
- , Luca Caricchi
- & Axel K. Schmitt
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Article
| Open AccessIntraspecific host variation plays a key role in virus community assembly
The factors that determine whether pathogens co-occur in a host are poorly understood, especially for plant viruses. Here the authors conduct field experiments with the plant Plantago lanceolata and its viruses, showing that viral co-occurrences are driven predominantly by environmental context and host genotype rather than viral interactions.
- Suvi Sallinen
- , Anna Norberg
- & Anna-Liisa Laine
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Article
| Open AccessSelf-consistent kinetic model of nested electron- and ion-scale magnetic cavities in space plasmas
Magnetic cavities play important roles in the energy cascade, conversion and dissipation in turbulent plasmas. Here, the authors show a theoretical insight into magnetic cavities by deriving a self-consistent, kinetic theory of these coherent structures.
- Jing-Huan Li
- , Fan Yang
- & James L. Burch
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| Open AccessA spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming
The fate of the carbon locked away in soil is uncertain, and there are vast differences between models. Here the authors apply observational, spatio-temporal constraints on carbon turnover projections and find that uncertainty in estimations of carbon dynamics are reduced by 50%.
- Rebecca M. Varney
- , Sarah E. Chadburn
- & Peter M. Cox
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| Open AccessRole of export industries on ozone pollution and its precursors in China
The global supply chain and demand for export goods can lead to relocated emissions. Goods produced in China for foreign markets have lead to an increase of domestic non-methane volatile organic compounds emissions by 3.5 million tons in 2013 resulting in potentially an estimated 16,889 premature deaths annually.
- Jiamin Ou
- , Zhijiong Huang
- & Dabo Guan
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| Open AccessInter-hemispheric synchroneity of Holocene precipitation anomalies controlled by Earth’s latitudinal insolation gradients
Solar insolation is not equally distributed on the Earth’s surface and such imbalances influence the atmospheric circulation. Here, the authors show that latitudinal insolation gradients synchronized the hydroclimate in the Northern mid-latitudes and the African and South American Monsoons throughout the Holocene.
- Michael Deininger
- , Frank McDermott
- & Denis Scholz
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| Open AccessDietary diversity and evolution of the earliest flying vertebrates revealed by dental microwear texture analysis
Microwear patterns on teeth can be used to infer diet as different foods leave different marks. Here, Bestwick and colleagues analyse microwear from the teeth of pterosaurs—extinct flying reptiles colloquially known as “pterodactyls”—to reconstruct their dietary diversity and evolution.
- Jordan Bestwick
- , David M. Unwin
- & Mark A. Purnell
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Perspective
| Open AccessTowards a global-scale soil climate mitigation strategy
Reducing soil degradation and improving soil management could make an important contribute to climate change mitigation. Here the authors discuss opportunities and challenges towards implementing a global climate mitigation strategy focused on carbon sequestration in agricultural soils, and propose a framework for guiding region- and soil-specific management options.
- W. Amelung
- , D. Bossio
- & A. Chabbi
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| Open AccessGlobal warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43°C.
- Nico Wunderling
- , Matteo Willeit
- & Ricarda Winkelmann
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Article
| Open AccessLocal community assembly mechanisms shape soil bacterial β diversity patterns along a latitudinal gradient
The relative importance of regional species pool and local assembly processes as drivers of beta diversity is unclear. Here the authors investigate soil bacterial diversity patterns along a 3700-km latitudinal gradient in Chinese forests, finding that community assembly processes differ based on environmental heterogeneity.
- Xiao Zhang
- , Shirong Liu
- & Jamie Schuler
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Article
| Open AccessNeglecting uncertainties biases house-elevation decisions to manage riverine flood risks
This study investigates the effects of uncertainties on the decision of how high to elevate a house in flood-prone areas. Accounting for several uncertainties suggests avenues on how to improve guidelines from FEMA.
- Mahkameh Zarekarizi
- , Vivek Srikrishnan
- & Klaus Keller
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| Open AccessPresence of low virulence chytrid fungi could protect European amphibians from more deadly strains
The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (BD) associated with widespread amphibian declines is present in Europe but has not consistently caused disease-induced declines in that region. Here, the authors suggest that an endemic strain of BD with low virulence may protect the hosts upon co-infection with more virulent strains.
- Mark S. Greener
- , Elin Verbrugghe
- & An Martel
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Article
| Open AccessModulation of late Pleistocene ENSO strength by the tropical Pacific thermocline
How the El Niño Southern Oscillation depends on the background conditions is not well known. Here, the authors present individual foraminifera distributions which show that central Pacific variability is related to the warmth and depth of the thermocline across varying climate background conditions over the past ~285,000 years.
- Gerald T. Rustic
- , Pratigya J. Polissar
- & Sarah M. White
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Article
| Open AccessGeneral destabilizing effects of eutrophication on grassland productivity at multiple spatial scales
Eutrophication has been shown to weaken diversity-stability relationships in grasslands, but it is unclear whether the effect depends on scale. Analysing a globally distributed network of grassland sites, the authors show a positive role of beta diversity and spatial asynchrony as drivers of stability but find that nitrogen enrichment weakens the diversity-stability relationships at different spatial scales.
- Yann Hautier
- , Pengfei Zhang
- & Shaopeng Wang
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Article
| Open AccessSources and upstream pathways of the densest overflow water in the Nordic Seas
Overflow water is an important part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, yet how it reaches the Greenland-Scotland Ridge is not fully known. Here, the authors show that the interior of the Greenland Sea gyre is the primary wintertime source of the densest portion of both Denmark Strait and Faroe Bank Channel overflows.
- Jie Huang
- , Robert S. Pickart
- & Fanghua Xu
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| Open AccessThe Iceland-Faroe Slope Jet: a conduit for dense water toward the Faroe Bank Channel overflow
Dense water from the Nordic Seas sustains the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, yet the upstream pathways are not fully known. Here, the authors provide evidence of a deep current between Iceland and the Faroe Islands, which supplies 50% of the transport through the Faroe Bank Channel overflow.
- Stefanie Semper
- , Robert S. Pickart
- & Bogi Hansen
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Article
| Open AccessDramatic uneven urbanization of large cities throughout the world in recent decades
Urban development has dramatically increased in recent decades. Analyzing 841 large cities throughout the world for the period from 2001 to 2018, the authors disclosed uneven features of global urbanization in terms of urban expansion, population growth, and greening at different economic levels.
- Liqun Sun
- , Ji Chen
- & Dian Huang
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Article
| Open AccessSeasonal modulation of phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean
Phytoplankton are biogeochemically important but the drivers of their seasonal cycles in the Southern Ocean are poorly resolved. Here the authors use seven years of ARGO float data to measure bloom initiation, decline and termination throughout the Southern Ocean, finding that bloom dynamics are especially sensitive to the coupling between cell division rates and loss processes.
- Lionel A. Arteaga
- , Emmanuel Boss
- & Jorge L. Sarmiento
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Article
| Open AccessMarine plankton show threshold extinction response to Neogene climate change
High-latitude records show large diversity losses of marine plankton, such as radiolarians, with historical climate change. Here, Trubovitz et al. present a low-latitude record spanning the last 10 million years, finding that many high-latitude radiolarians did not shift equatorward but instead went extinct.
- Sarah Trubovitz
- , David Lazarus
- & Paula J. Noble
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Perspective
| Open AccessMicroplastic regulation should be more precise to incentivize both innovation and environmental safety
Plastic pollution is recognized as a global threat, but policy hurdles and a lack of effective plastic substitutes contribute to the problem. In this Perspective, the authors argue that an effective and sustainable path forward must rely on key restrictions and regulations optimized for impact and efficacy.
- Denise M. Mitrano
- & Wendel Wohlleben
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Article
| Open AccessForest production efficiency increases with growth temperature
Many models assume a universal carbon use efficiency across forest biomes, in contrast to assumptions of other process-based models. Here the authors analyse forest production efficiency across a wide range of climates to show a positive relationship with annual temperature and precipitation, indicating that ecosystem models are overestimating forest carbon losses under warming.
- A. Collalti
- , A. Ibrom
- & I. C. Prentice
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Article
| Open AccessLithium systematics in global arc magmas and the importance of crustal thickening for lithium enrichment
The exact origin of lithium enrichment in arc magmatic systems is unclear. Here the authors conduct a global systematics of lithium, explaining why volcanic arcs built on thickened crust are most lithium-enriched, which sheds light on the future exploration of lithium resources.
- Chen Chen
- , Cin-Ty A. Lee
- & Weidong Sun
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Article
| Open AccessProbing complex geophysical geometries with chattering dust
Chattering dust, or chemically reactive grains of sucrose containing pockets of pressurized carbon dioxide, are used in this experimental approach to study rock fractures. The chattering dust emits acoustic shocks that can be monitored and illuminates fracture geometry.
- Laura J. Pyrak-Nolte
- , William Braverman
- & David D. Nolte
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Article
| Open AccessPearl millet genomic vulnerability to climate change in West Africa highlights the need for regional collaboration
Replacement of local crops with alternative varieties adapted to future conditions may improve food security under climate change. Here the authors apply landscape genomics and ensemble climate modelling to pearl millet in West Africa, supporting the potential of transfrontier assisted seed exchange.
- Bénédicte Rhoné
- , Dimitri Defrance
- & Yves Vigouroux
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Article
| Open AccessXenon iron oxides predicted as potential Xe hosts in Earth’s lower mantle
The abnormally low concentration of xenon compared to other noble gases in Earth’s atmosphere remains debated, as the identification of mantle minerals that can capture and stabilize xenon is challenging. Here, the authors propose that xenon iron oxides could be potential Xe hosts in Earth’s lower mantle.
- Feng Peng
- , Xianqi Song
- & Yanming Ma
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Article
| Open AccessFusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States
Climate action from local actors is vital in achieving nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Here the authors show that existing commitments from U.S. states, cities and business could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, with expanded subnational action reducing emissions by 37% and federal action by up to 49%.
- Nathan E. Hultman
- , Leon Clarke
- & John O’Neill
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Article
| Open AccessOrbital climate variability on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau across the Eocene–Oligocene transition
Marine records indicate a greenhouse to icehouse climate transition at ~34 million years ago, but how the climate changed within continental interiors at this time is less well known. Here, the authors show an orbital climate response shift with aridification on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during this time.
- Hong Ao
- , Guillaume Dupont-Nivet
- & Zhisheng An
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Article
| Open AccessUnderstanding and managing new risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Several dams and reservoirs exist along the Nile, most notably the HAD (Egypt) and GERD (Ethiopia) dams. Due to the lack of strategies, the authors here explore potential risks and solutions how to use both dams simultaneously.
- Kevin G. Wheeler
- , Marc Jeuland
- & Dale Whittington
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Article
| Open AccessRecent fall Eurasian cooling linked to North Pacific sea surface temperatures and a strengthening Siberian high
In the last years, an extensive winter cooling over central Eurasia has been discussed widely. Here, the authors show that from 2004–2018, the Eurasian cooling in autumn is stronger than that in winter, and that this autumn cooling is likely influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Siberian high.
- Baofu Li
- , Yupeng Li
- & Xun Shi
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Article
| Open AccessGreenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy
China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate new energy vehicle adoption. Here the authors show that the total Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 and a significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible by optimizing the Dual Credit policy.
- Xin He
- , Shiqi Ou
- & Michael Wang
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Article
| Open AccessSmaller climatic niche shifts in invasive than non-invasive alien ant species
Whether or not species—when introduced to a new location—eventually become invasive has been linked to the specices’ capacity to expand its niche. However, here the authors show that the extent of niche shift is smaller in non-invasive than invasive ant species, questioning this established hypothesis.
- Olivia K. Bates
- , Sébastien Ollier
- & Cleo Bertelsmeier
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Article
| Open AccessVegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO2-enriched climate
Monsoon systems have strong impacts on precipitation and food security over large areas of the world. Here, the authors show that plant responses to rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere play a key role in modulating seasonal rainfall and water resources over global land monsoon regions.
- Jiangpeng Cui
- , Shilong Piao
- & Gabriel J. Kooperman
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Article
| Open AccessNear-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has stopped many human activities, which has had significant impact on emissions of greenhouse gases. Here, the authors present daily estimates of country-level CO2 emissions for different economic sectors and show that there has been a 8.8% decrease in global CO2 emissions in the first half of 2020.
- Zhu Liu
- , Philippe Ciais
- & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber