Earth and environmental sciences articles within Nature Communications

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    Phosphorus is an essential nutrient critical for agriculture, but because it is non-renewable its future availability is threatened. Here the authors show that across the globe most nations have net losses of phosphorus, with soil erosion as the major route of loss in Europe, Africa and South America.

    • Christine Alewell
    • , Bruno Ringeval
    •  & Pasquale Borrelli

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Mapping ecological variables using machine-learning algorithms based on remote-sensing data has become a widespread practice in ecology. Here, the authors use forest biomass mapping as a study case to show that the most common model validation approach, which ignores data spatial structure, leads to overoptimistic assessment of model predictive power.

    • Pierre Ploton
    • , Frédéric Mortier
    •  & Raphaël Pélissier

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Ecosystem Based Management measures developed to prevent overfishing could be particularly important under climate change. Here the authors combine climate and fish stock modelling to show that EBM cap implementation reduces climate-driven fishery declines under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 before midcentury. However, there are thermal tipping points beyond which potential collapses are predicted.

    • K. K. Holsman
    • , A. C. Haynie
    •  & A. E. Punt

  • Article
    | Open Access

    There is evidence that reducing plant litter diversity may slow litter decomposition rate. Here, Mori and colleagues perform a global meta-analysis of litter-bag studies to show that mixed-species litter assemblages decompose faster than monospecific assemblages, with a magnitude comparable to the predicted effect of climate warming.

    • Akira S. Mori
    • , J. Hans C. Cornelissen
    •  & Forest Isbell

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The long-term availability of lithium in the event of significant demand growth of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries is important to assess. Here the authors assess lithium demand and supply challenges of a long-term energy transition using 18 scenarios, developed by combining 8 demand and 4 supply variations.

    • Peter Greim
    • , A. A. Solomon
    •  & Christian Breyer

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The effectiveness of protected areas depends not only on whether they are intact, but also on whether they are mutually connected. Here the authors examine the structural connectivity of terrestrial protected areas globally, finding that less than 10% of the protected network can be considered connected.

    • Michelle Ward
    • , Santiago Saura
    •  & James E. M. Watson

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Leaf economics spectrum theory has greatly advanced understanding of plant functional ecology, but it is unclear whether its predictions hold in wetland communities. Here, Pan and colleagues analyse leaf economics traits in wetland plants, showing that their trait relationships deviate from fully terrestrial plants, particularly by clustering towards acquisitive plant strategies.

    • Yingji Pan
    • , Ellen Cieraad
    •  & Peter M. van Bodegom

  • Article
    | Open Access

    “How iodine-bearing molecules contribute to atmospheric aerosol formation is not well understood. Here, the authors provide a new gas-to-particle conversion mechanism and show that clustering of iodine oxides is an essential component of this process while previously proposed iodic acid does not play a large role.”

    • Juan Carlos Gómez Martín
    • , Thomas R. Lewis
    •  & Alfonso Saiz-Lopez

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Conversion of natural ecosystems to cropland is a threat to most native wildlife. Here the authors quantify the impact of recent cropland expansion on the habitat of representative pollinator, bird, plant species across the conterminous United States, showing diminished crop yield returns at the cost of important habitat losses.

    • Tyler J. Lark
    • , Seth A. Spawn
    •  & Holly K. Gibbs

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The environmental and socio-economic implications of the growth in welfare and trade in Asia-Pacific (APAC) remain unclear. Here the authors show that over the past two decades (1995–2015), owing to intraregional trade, the APAC economies have grown increasingly interdependent in natural resource use, air emissions, and labor and economic productivity.

    • Lan Yang
    • , Yutao Wang
    •  & Yuanbo Qiao

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The spatial pattern and global mean values of warming differ between different climate models, an issue that needs to be better understood in order to obtain reliable regional projections. Here, the authors show that ice-albedo and water vapor feedbacks are the key processes that are responsible for this inter-model spread.

    • Xiaoming Hu
    • , Hanjie Fan
    •  & Song Yang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Although the surface deformation of tectonic plate boundaries is well determined by geological and geodetic measurements, the pattern of flow below the lithosphere remains poorly constrained. Here, the author finds that major earthquakes in California have occurred above the regions of current plastic strain accumulation in the mantle.

    • Sylvain Barbot

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The universality of the trade-off between early growth and lifespan in trees and its implications are disputed. Analysing a global tree ring dataset and performing data-driven simulations, the authors demonstrate the pervasiveness of the trade-off and challenge current earth system models that predict a continuation of the carbon sink into mature forests under warming and increasing CO2.

    • R. J. W. Brienen
    • , L. Caldwell
    •  & E. Gloor

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The relationship between atmospheric CO2 and climate during the Eocene greenhouse remains uncertain. Here authors show that Eocene CO2 and climate sensitivity was high during the warmest intervals and declined as global climate cooled, with implications for the Earth’s future warming climate.

    • E. Anagnostou
    • , E. H. John
    •  & G. L. Foster

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Islands have disproportionate importance for biodiversity conservation, yet they may be underrepresented in protected areas. Here the authors assess how climate, geography, habitat diversity, and socio-economic conditions explain terrestrial and marine protected area coverage on inhabited islands and in the surrounding seas globally.

    • David Mouillot
    • , Laure Velez
    •  & Marc Troussellier

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Ocean uptake of carbon dioxide impacts the climate, but flux estimates from surface measurements have not been corrected for temperature differences between surface and water sampling depth. Making that correction, the authors find previous estimates for ocean uptake have been substantially underestimated.

    • Andrew J. Watson
    • , Ute Schuster
    •  & Lonneke Goddijn-Murphy

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Dust emissions are likely to increase significantly when land vegetation is absent, such as during the Precambrian period. Here, the authors use climate simulations to find that high dust emissions in the Precambrian could have cooled the global climate by ~10 °C.

    • Peng Liu
    • , Yonggang Liu
    •  & Yongyun Hu

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Wheat yield is sensitive to temperature, but there could be substantial variation in this response across cultivars. Here the authors present data on the climatic responses of wheat cultivars in South Africa, highlighting which cultivars might be better able to maintain yield under warming.

    • Aaron M. Shew
    • , Jesse B. Tack
    •  & Petronella Chaminuka

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Global resources of heavy Rare Earth Elements (REE) are dominantly sourced from Chinese regolith-hosted ion-adsorption deposits, yet the adsorption mechanisms remain unclear. Here, the authors find that heavy REE are adsorbed as easily leachable 8-coordinated outer-sphere hydrated complexes, dominantly onto kaolinite, in clays from both China and Madagascar.

    • Anouk M. Borst
    • , Martin P. Smith
    •  & Kalotina Geraki

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Renewable energy production is necessary to mitigate climate change, however, generating the required technologies and infrastructure will demand huge production increases of many metals. Here, the authors map mining areas and assess spatial coincidence with biodiversity conservation sites, and show that new mining threats to biodiversity may surpass those averted by climate change mitigation.

    • Laura J. Sonter
    • , Marie C. Dade
    •  & Rick K. Valenta

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The hydroclimatic variations of the Amazon River basin can exert profound impacts on the marine ecosystem in the Amazon plume region. Here the authors show that an amplified seasonal cycle of Amazonia precipitation during 1979–2018 leads to enhanced seasonality in both Amazon river discharge and ocean salinity.

    • Yu-Chiao Liang
    • , Min-Hui Lo
    •  & John D. Steffen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Rarely are the outcomes of mathematical (probability) models of wildlife disease detection used to inform policy or management changes. Here the authors develop a proactive hunting surveillance program that shortened the time required to establish freedom from chronic wasting disease at the population level in reindeer.

    • Atle Mysterud
    • , Petter Hopp
    •  & Hildegunn Viljugrein

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Determination of 3D molecular structures remains challenging for natural products or organic compounds available in minute amounts. Here, the authors determine the structure of complex molecules, including few micrograms of briarane B-3 isolated from Briareum asbestinums, through measurement of 1H residual chemical shift anisotropy.

    • Nilamoni Nath
    • , Juan Carlos Fuentes-Monteverde
    •  & Christian Griesinger

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Global largest agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions in China have caused severe damage to both ecosystem and human health, yet no policy is formulated to reduce NH3 emissions. Here, the authors show that halving agricultural NH3 emissions with feasible technical mitigation options in China generates far more societal benefits than abatement costs.

    • Xiuming Zhang
    • , Baojing Gu
    •  & Deli Chen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña episodes in the tropical Pacific is often not well represented in models. Here, the authors show that this asymmetry is related to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating and that a realistic representation of this process can potentially improve tropical climate projections.

    • Michiya Hayashi
    • , Fei-Fei Jin
    •  & Malte F. Stuecker

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Magmatic systems play a crucial role in enriching the crust with volatiles and elements that reside primarily within the Earth’s mantle. Here, the authors show that carbon, as a buoyant supercritical CO2 fluid, could be a covert agent that may promote the physical transport of sulfides across the mantle-crust transition.

    • Daryl E. Blanks
    • , David A. Holwell
    •  & Elena Ferrari

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Prior studies mapping climatologically suitable areas for malaria transmission have used relatively simple thresholds for precipitation. Here the authors show that when models incorporate hydrological processes a more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges in Africa and future shifts in suitability are more pronounced.

    • M. W. Smith
    • , T. Willis
    •  & C. J. Thomas

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Hospital systems are critical, especially in providing healthcare services after disasters. Here, the authors revealed that in Lima the spatial distribution of health service demands mismatches the capacities of hospitals after earthquakes, leaving large zones on the periphery significantly underserved.

    • Luis Ceferino
    • , Judith Mitrani-Reiser
    •  & Celso Bambarén

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    Weather may marginally affect COVID-19 dynamics, but misconceptions about the way that climate and weather drive exposure and transmission have adversely shaped risk perceptions for both policymakers and citizens. Future scientific work on this politically-fraught topic needs a more careful approach.

    • Colin J. Carlson
    • , Ana C. R. Gomez
    •  & Sadie J. Ryan

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    The Montreal Protocol has begun to heal the Antarctic ozone hole and avoided more global warming than any other treaty. Still, recent research shows that new unexpected emissions of several chlorofluorocarbons, carbon tetrachloride, and hydrofluorocarbons, are undermining the Protocol’s success. It is time for policymakers to plug the holes in the ozone hole treaty.

    • Susan Solomon
    • , Joseph Alcamo
    •  & A. R. Ravishankara

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Mangroves and the carbon they store are threatened by deforestation, but the efficacy of policies to protect them is unknown. Here the authors assess changes in mangrove carbon stocks between 1996 and 2016 and show less loss than previous methods estimated, indicating conservation has had a positive effect.

    • Daniel R. Richards
    • , Benjamin S. Thompson
    •  & Lahiru Wijedasa

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Predicting the fate of carbon in peatlands relies on assumptions of behaviour in response to temperature. Here, the authors show that the temperature dependency of respiratory carbon losses shift strongly over day-night cycles, an overlooked facet causing bias in peatland carbon cycle simulations.

    • Järvi Järveoja
    • , Mats B. Nilsson
    •  & Matthias Peichl

  • Article
    | Open Access

    East Antarctic ice shelves typically have cold ice cavities with low basal melt rates. Here the authors direct observational evidence of high basal melt rates beneath Shirase Glacier Tongue in East Antarctica, driven by inflowing warm water guided by a deep continuous trough extending to the continental slope.

    • Daisuke Hirano
    • , Takeshi Tamura
    •  & Shigeru Aoki

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The average body size of salmon has declined rapidly over recent decades. Here the authors quantify changes in body size distributions for Pacific salmon in Alaska and examine the causes and consequences of size declines for ecosystems, food security, and commercial fisheries.

    • K. B. Oke
    • , C. J. Cunningham
    •  & E. P. Palkovacs

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The risks posed by plastic contamination of the ocean cannot be assessed as their amount and location remain largely unknown. Here the authors show that large quantities of microplastics exist below the ocean surface over the entire Atlantic in quantities greater than previously estimated.

    • Katsiaryna Pabortsava
    •  & Richard S. Lampitt

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Plant-pollinator interactions are not fixed but instead can change seasonally and across years. Here, the authors provide a holistic perspective on how plants and pollinators first enter, then comprise, and ultimately leave interaction networks over time.

    • Bernat Bramon Mora
    • , Eura Shin
    •  & Daniel B. Stouffer

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The heat and electrical conductivity of Earth’s core matter represent key input quantities for geophysical models of the Earth’s core evolution and geodynamo. Here, the authors show how the scattering due to interactions between electrons has a relatively weak impact on the electrical and thermal conductivities of iron at core conditions.

    • L. V. Pourovskii
    • , J. Mravlje
    •  & D. Alfè

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The ongoing increase of ocean temperatures could have major effects on fish populations. Here the authors model relationships between sea temperature and life history traits in over 300 species, showing that while warming overall accelerates life history traits, changes in population growth depend on the fast–slow life-history continuum.

    • Hui-Yu Wang
    • , Sheng-Feng Shen
    •  & Mikko Heino

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    Climate science and climate economics are critical sources of expertise in our pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals. Effective use of this expertise requires a strengthening of its epistemic foundations and a renewed focus on more practical policy problems.

    • David A. Stainforth
    •  & Raphael Calel

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Soil microbial communities remain active throughout much of the Arctic winter, and Arctic winters are warming dramatically. Here, the authors show that persistently warm winter soils can lead to labile carbon starvation and reduced microbial respiration, despite the high carbon content of most Arctic soils.

    • Patrick F. Sullivan
    • , Madeline C. Stokes
    •  & Michael N. Weintraub

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Some palaeotemperature proxies suffer from inaccuracies related to kinetic fractionations occurring during carbonate mineral growth. Here, the authors show that dual clumped isotope thermometry can identify the origin of these kinetic biases and allows for the reconstruction of accurate environmental temperatures.

    • David Bajnai
    • , Weifu Guo
    •  & Jens Fiebig

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