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| Open AccessThe perpetual fragility of creeping hillslopes
The downhill motion of soils on hillslopes is not well understood. Here, the authors present laboratory experiments and show that hillslopes are made perpetually fragile by environmental perturbations that prevent them from stabilizing.
- Nakul S. Deshpande
- , David J. Furbish
- & Douglas J. Jerolmack
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Article
| Open AccessMelt volume at Atlantic volcanic rifted margins controlled by depth-dependent extension and mantle temperature
Magmatic productivity at passive margins is controlled by mantle temperature and rifting style. The authors reveal that melt volume at rifted margins is linearly correlated with margin width and that volcanic margins may result from depth dependent extension without high temperature mantle plumes.
- Gang Lu
- & Ritske S. Huismans
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Article
| Open AccessCommercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways
Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial (harvested) forestry is disputed. Here the authors apply dynamic life cycle assessment to show that new commercial conifer forests can achieve up to 269% more GHG mitigation than semi-natural forests, over 100 years.
- Eilidh J. Forster
- , John R. Healey
- & David Styles
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Article
| Open AccessEvaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects
Aviation contributes to climate change and ways to reduce its emissions are widely debated. Here, the authors assess the effects of technology improvements and the use of sustainable aviation fuels and find that even when these are considered aviation is unlikely to meet emissions goals in line with the Paris Agreement.
- Volker Grewe
- , Arvind Gangoli Rao
- & Katrin Dahlmann
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal coastal attenuation of wind-waves observed with radar altimetry
Reprocessed data from satellite altimetry show that the mean significant wave height decreases globally by 22% on average from 30 km to 3 km from the coast. By combining these data with wave period from reanalysis, we estimate a mean reduction of 38% concerning the mean wave energy flux.
- Marcello Passaro
- , Mark A. Hemer
- & Florian Seitz
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessInadequate methods undermine a study of malaria, deforestation and trade
- Nikolas Kuschnig
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Article
| Open AccessLarge model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves
Understanding the uncertainties associated with urban heat wave (UHW) projection is critical for local actions to mitigate extreme heat risks in cities. Here, the authors show that choices of model structural design contribute a large proportion of the uncertainty in projecting UHWs under climate change.
- Zhonghua Zheng
- , Lei Zhao
- & Keith W. Oleson
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Review Article
| Open AccessCity footprints and SDGs provide untapped potential for assessing city sustainability
Whether or not a city achieves absolute sustainability is difficult to assess with existing frameworks. Here the authors, in a review, show that a further integration of consumption-based accounting and benchmarking is necessary to aid the monitoring and assessment of Sustainable Development Goals in cities.
- Thomas Wiedmann
- & Cameron Allen
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Article
| Open AccessA global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping
As sea levels rise, coasts are being increasingly threatened by overtopping caused by the combination of sea level rise, storm surge and wave runup. Here the authors find that global coastal overtopping has increased by over 50% in the last two decades, and under a RCP 8.5 scenario this could increase up to 50 times by 2100 compared to today.
- Rafael Almar
- , Roshanka Ranasinghe
- & Elodie Kestenare
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Article
| Open AccessObserved increasing water constraint on vegetation growth over the last three decades
Jiao et al. conducted a comprehensive evaluation of changes in water constraint on vegetation growth in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2015. They document a significant increase in vegetation water constraint over the last three decades.
- Wenzhe Jiao
- , Lixin Wang
- & Paolo D’Odorico
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Article
| Open AccessCollisionless relaxation of a disequilibrated current sheet and implications for bifurcated structures
Bifurcated current sheets are a recurring feature in magnetized space plasmas. Here the authors explain the emergence of bifurcated structures by natural redistributions of single-particle orbits during the collisionless relaxation process of a disequilibrated current sheet.
- Young Dae Yoon
- , Gunsu S. Yun
- & James L. Burch
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Article
| Open AccessEmission impacts of China’s solid waste import ban and COVID-19 in the copper supply chain
Advanced copper supply chain modeling shows China’s new waste trade policy may increase pollution, while limiting other low-value imports reverses this trend. Here the authors show that recycling is vulnerable to supply chain shocks, requiring investment during recoveries to promote a circular economy.
- John Ryter
- , Xinkai Fu
- & Elsa A. Olivetti
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Article
| Open AccessImpact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization of the electric power sector
Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and direct air can influence power sector planning and operations. Here the authors show how carbon removal options lower costs of deep decarbonization and alter electric sector investments.
- John E. T. Bistline
- & Geoffrey J. Blanford
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Article
| Open AccessMechanistic analysis of multiple processes controlling solar-driven H2O2 synthesis using engineered polymeric carbon nitride
Solar-driven H2O2 production presents a renewable approach to chemical synthesis. Here, authors perform a mechanistic analysis on the contribution of the sodium cyanaminate moiety to the 2-electron oxygen reduction reaction performance of polymeric carbon nitride frameworks.
- Yubao Zhao
- , Peng Zhang
- & Wonyong Choi
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Article
| Open AccessTiming of iceberg scours and massive ice-rafting events in the subtropical North Atlantic
Sediment core analyses and numerical iceberg modeling suggest icebergs from the North American ice sheets were entrained in large glacial meltwater currents and drifted as far south as the Florida Keys several times during the past ~40,000 years.
- Alan Condron
- & Jenna C. Hill
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Article
| Open AccessRadioisotope constraints of Arctic deep water export to the North Atlantic
North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation influences the climate and carbon cycle, but the contribution of Arctic waters is difficult to constrain. Here the authors use Pa/Th proxy measurements to determine the amount of Arctic Ocean water that flows through the Fram Strait and contributes to NADW.
- Lauren E. Kipp
- , Jerry F. McManus
- & Markus Kienast
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Article
| Open AccessFuture climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response
The impacts of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) decline in future climate change are uncertain. Here the authors show that the inter-model spread in the AMOC response in global climate models amplify uncertainties in the projections of temperature, rainfall and the jet-stream.
- Katinka Bellomo
- , Michela Angeloni
- & Jost von Hardenberg
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Article
| Open AccessSignificant underestimation of radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions derived from satellite-based methods
Satellite-based estimates of radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions are consistently smaller than those from global models, hampering accurate projections of future climate change. Here, the authors show that the discrepancy can be substantially reduced by correcting sampling biases induced by inherent limitations of satellite measurements.
- Hailing Jia
- , Xiaoyan Ma
- & Johannes Quaas
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Article
| Open AccessCross-border climate vulnerabilities of the European Union to drought
European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders. Here the authors find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change.
- Ertug Ercin
- , Ted I. E. Veldkamp
- & Johannes Hunink
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Article
| Open AccessA Late Cretaceous true polar wander oscillation
The authors present a high-resolution palaeomagnetic record for a Late Cretaceous limestone in Italy. They claim that their record robustly shows a ~12° true polar wander oscillation between 86 and 78 Ma, with the greatest excursion at 84–82 Ma.
- Ross N. Mitchell
- , Christopher J. Thissen
- & Joseph L. Kirschvink
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Article
| Open AccessSource sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales
Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the most important environmental health risk factors in many regions. Here, the authors present an assessment of PM2.5 emission sources and the related health impacts across global to sub-national scales and find that over 1 million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating PM2.5 mass associated with fossil fuel combustion emissions.
- Erin E. McDuffie
- , Randall V. Martin
- & Michael Brauer
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Article
| Open AccessRole of meteorological factors in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States
The role of meteorological factors in SARS-COV-2 transmission is not well understood. Here, the authors use county-level data from the United States to the end of 2020 and find evidence of a moderate association between increased transmissibility and cold, dry weather and low ultraviolet radiation.
- Yiqun Ma
- , Sen Pei
- & Kai Chen
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Article
| Open AccessExperimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants
It is unclear whether climate driven phenological shifts of tundra plants are consistent across the plant growing season. Here the authors analyse data from a network of field warming experiments in Arctic and alpine tundra, finding that warming differentially affects the timing and duration of reproductive and vegetative phenology.
- Courtney G. Collins
- , Sarah C. Elmendorf
- & Katharine N. Suding
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Article
| Open AccessElectromagnetic power of lightning superbolts from Earth to space
Superbolts are powerful, rare lightning events. Here, the authors show simultaneous satellite and ground measurements of a superbolt, and demonstrate different properties of superbolts and lightnings.
- J.-F. Ripoll
- , T. Farges
- & S. Pédeboy
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Article
| Open AccessCrustal rejuvenation stabilised Earth’s first cratons
Why Earth’s crust only started becoming widely preserved in the Eoarchaean, 500 Ma after planetary accretion, is poorly understood. Here, the authors document a shift to juvenile magmatic sources in the early Eoarchaean, linking crustal preservation to the formation of stabilising melt-depleted mantle.
- Jacob A. Mulder
- , Oliver Nebel
- & Timothy J. Ivanic
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Article
| Open AccessProjected losses of ecosystem services in the US disproportionately affect non-white and lower-income populations
Social inequalities may be reflected in how ecosystem services are distributed among groups of people. Here the authors estimate the distribution of three ecosystem services across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the US between 2020 and 2100, finding that non-white and lower-income groups disproportionately bear the loss of ecosystem service benefits.
- Jesse D. Gourevitch
- , Aura M. Alonso-Rodríguez
- & Taylor H. Ricketts
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Article
| Open AccessRapid endogenic rock recycling in magmatic arcs
A case study of migmatites indicates that the juvenile arc crust underwent a rapid self-recycling process from arc magmatism to erosion and weathering at the surface, then to burial and remelting. Intra-arc thrust fault systems might efficiently promote endogenous recycling.
- Jun-Yong Li
- , Ming Tang
- & Lin-Sen Li
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Article
| Open AccessLimited application of reflective surfaces can mitigate urban heat pollution
Reflective surfaces have been recommended to mitigate urban heat pollution but can be expensive to apply at a large scale. This work shows that applying them to only the upstream half of a neighborhood can lead to disporportionately high cooling benefits relative to cost.
- Sushobhan Sen
- & Lev Khazanovich
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Article
| Open AccessDislocation interactions in olivine control postseismic creep of the upper mantle
Models of the viscosity evolution of mantle rocks are central to analyses of postseismic deformation but constraints on underlying physical processes are lacking. Here, the authors present measurements of microscale stress heterogeneity in olivine suggesting that long-range dislocation interactions contribute to viscosity evolution.
- David Wallis
- , Lars N. Hansen
- & Ricardo A. Lebensohn
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Article
| Open AccessNitrogen and phosphorus fertilization consistently favor pathogenic over mutualistic fungi in grassland soils
Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment may drive shifts in soil microbial communities. Here, the authors analyse nitrogen and phosphorus addition effects on soil fungi in a distributed grassland experiment across four continents, finding promotion of pathogens, suppression of mutualists, and no shifts in saprotrophs.
- Ylva Lekberg
- , Carlos A. Arnillas
- & Jeremiah A. Henning
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Article
| Open AccessUltrasonic activation of inert poly(tetrafluoroethylene) enables piezocatalytic generation of reactive oxygen species
Controlled generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) is essential in biological, chemical, and environmental fields. Here, the authors report that ultrasonication can induce polarization of inert poly(tetrafluoroethylene) to a piezoelectric electret and drive piezocatalytic generation of aqueous ROS.
- Yanfeng Wang
- , Yeming Xu
- & Guandao Gao
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Article
| Open AccessEcology of inorganic sulfur auxiliary metabolism in widespread bacteriophages
Some bacteriophage encode auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) that impact host metabolism and biogeochemical cycling during infection. Here the authors identify hundreds of AMGs in environmental phage encoding sulfur oxidation genes and use their global distribution to infer phage-mediated biogeochemical impacts.
- Kristopher Kieft
- , Zhichao Zhou
- & Karthik Anantharaman
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Article
| Open AccessA first constraint on basal melt-water production of the Greenland ice sheet
Melting at the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet is often disregarded as a source of quantifiable mass loss. In this study, the authors find the basal mass loss is equivalent to 8% of the ice sheet’s present imbalance, and that the loss of mass from basal melt is likely to increase in the future.
- Nanna B. Karlsson
- , Anne M. Solgaard
- & Robert S. Fausto
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Article
| Open AccessPersistent inequality in economically optimal climate policies
Benefit-cost analyses of climate policies have generated conflicting assessments; as social welfare is affected by regional heterogeneity. Here the authors show that economically optimal pathways are consistent with climate stabilization but are characterized by persistent economic inequalities due to climate damages.
- Paolo Gazzotti
- , Johannes Emmerling
- & Massimo Tavoni
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Perspective
| Open AccessFinancing a sustainable ocean economy
The ocean supports many livelihoods, but this is currently not sustainable with pressures on the climate and ecosystems. Here, in this perspective, the authors outline the barriers and solutions for financing a sustainable ocean economy.
- U. Rashid Sumaila
- , Melissa Walsh
- & Junjie Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessNanomolar phosphate supply and its recycling drive net community production in the subtropical North Pacific
Primary productivity in the oligotrophic ocean sustains Earth’s ecosystems, but nutrient concentrations are vanishingly low. Here the authors measure nanomolar macronutrient concentrations in the North Pacific and find that net community production is sustained through high rates of phosphorus recycling.
- Fuminori Hashihama
- , Ichiro Yasuda
- & Masao Ishii
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Article
| Open AccessThe influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
Tree rings are a crucial archive for Common Era climate reconstructions, but the degree to which methodological decisions influence outcomes is not well known. Here, the authors show how different approaches taken by 15 different groups influence the ensemble temperature reconstruction from the same data.
- Ulf Büntgen
- , Kathy Allen
- & Jan Esper
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Article
| Open AccessNutrients cause consolidation of soil carbon flux to small proportion of bacterial community
The fate of soil carbon depends on microbial processes, but whether different microbial taxa have individualistic effects on carbon fluxes is unknown. Here the authors use 16 S amplicon sequencing and stable isotopes to show how taxonomic differences influence bacterial respiration and carbon cycling across four ecosystems.
- Bram W. Stone
- , Junhui Li
- & Bruce A. Hungate
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Article
| Open AccessLateral advection supports nitrogen export in the oligotrophic open-ocean Gulf of Mexico
The middle of the Gulf of Mexico is stratified and highly oligotrophic, yet there are anomalously high fluxes of sinking particulate matter from the euphotic zone. Here the authors show that lateral advection of organic matter supports nitrogen export in the Gulf of Mexico’s open ocean.
- Thomas B. Kelly
- , Angela N. Knapp
- & Michael R. Stukel
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Review Article
| Open AccessProtein nanofibrils for next generation sustainable water purification
Water scarcity is a rapidly spreading global challenge but water purification technologies are often not sustainable. Here, the authors review the research on water purification technologies based on protein nanofibrils as a green and affordable solution to alleviate a water crisis.
- Mohammad Peydayesh
- & Raffaele Mezzenga
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Article
| Open AccessInvestment incentive reduced by climate damages can be restored by optimal policy
Climate change is likely to damage economies worldwide. Here the authors show that this strongly reduces incentives to invest causing additional losses, whereas if investors include climate-change mitigation in their action portfolio they can avoid damages for themselves and the global economy.
- Sven N. Willner
- , Nicole Glanemann
- & Anders Levermann
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Article
| Open AccessOpen fire exposure increases the risk of pregnancy loss in South Asia
Open fires can increase heavy exposure to hazardous particulate matters, and thus harm human health, particularly among the vulnerable individuals, such as pregnant women. Here, the authors show an association between maternal exposure to fire smoke and increased risk of pregnancy loss in South Asia.
- Tao Xue
- , Guannan Geng
- & Tong Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessSmall sinking particles control anammox rates in the Peruvian oxygen minimum zone
Up to 40% of the ocean’s fixed nitrogen is lost in oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) by anammox, but despite the importance of this process, nitrogen loss patterns in OMZs are difficult to predict. Here the authors show that ammonium release from small particles is a major control of anammox in the Peruvian OMZ.
- Clarissa Karthäuser
- , Soeren Ahmerkamp
- & Marcel M. M. Kuypers
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Article
| Open AccessA tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term temperature and carbon-cycle observations
Earth-system sensitivity (ESS) describes the long-term temperature response for a given change in atmospheric CO2 and, as such, is a crucial parameter to assess future climate change. Here, the authors use a Bayesian model with data from the last 420 Myrs to reduce uncertainties and estimate ESS to be around 3.4 °C.
- Tony E. Wong
- , Ying Cui
- & Klaus Keller
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Article
| Open AccessSpatially explicit analysis identifies significant potential for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in China
China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. Here the authors find a promising option to abate 1.0 Gt CO2-eq yr−1 of carbon emissions at a marginal cost of $69 (t CO2-eq)−1 by retrofitting 222 GW of coal power plants to co-fire with biomass and upgrading to CCS operation across 2836 counties in China.
- Xiaofan Xing
- , Rong Wang
- & Siqing Xu
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Article
| Open AccessBiodegradation of bio-sourced and synthetic organic electronic materials towards green organic electronics
Waste build-up from organic electronic components is a major environmental issue; biodegradable electronic materials could be a solution to this. Here, the authors report on the biodegradation of bio-sourced and synthetic electronic materials in industrial compost at different temperatures.
- Eduardo Di Mauro
- , Denis Rho
- & Clara Santato
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Article
| Open AccessSpurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño
It has been suggested that sea surface temperatures in the North Tropical Atlantic exert strong influence on the evolution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, the authors argue that observed statistics are fully consistent with ENSO driving climate variations in the Atlantic and not vice versa.
- Wenjun Zhang
- , Feng Jiang
- & Axel Timmermann
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Article
| Open AccessDisproportionate exposure to urban heat island intensity across major US cities
Individual exposure to heat is associated with adverse health and economic outcomes. Here, the authors show that people of color and people living in poverty bear a disproportionate burden of urban heat exposure in almost all major cities in the continental United States.
- Angel Hsu
- , Glenn Sheriff
- & Diego Manya
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Article
| Open AccessDeep learning for bias correction of MJO prediction
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a crucial component of the tropical weather system, but forecasting it has been challenging. Here, the authors present a deep learning bias correction method that significantly improves multi-model forecasts of the MJO amplitude and phase for up to four weeks.
- H. Kim
- , Y. G. Ham
- & S. W. Son