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| Open AccessA stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods
Summer floods and droughts show a north-south dipole in East Asia centered near 30°N. Here, the authors show that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation plays an important role in this dipole and its prediction.
- Ruhua Zhang
- , Wen Zhou
- & Jiali Luo
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Article
| Open AccessHigher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States
This paper assesses future changes in flood magnitude across the conterminous United States based on multiple climate change scenarios. The results suggest that annual maximum peak discharge is projected to become more extreme under higher emission scenarios.
- Hanbeen Kim
- & Gabriele Villarini
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Article
| Open AccessIncreased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia generate circumglobal Rossby waves that contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown by suppressing heat loss in the Labrador Sea.
- Fukai Liu
- , Xun Li
- & Lei Zhou
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| Open AccessRobust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming
In this paper, the authors reveal a robust weakening of the subtropical atmospheric circulation across CMIP6 models driven by global-mean surface warming, which is partially offset by the direct CO2 effect.
- Shijie Zhou
- , Ping Huang
- & Peng Hu
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Sea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates
- Jennifer R. Shadrick
- , Dylan H. Rood
- & Martin D. Hurst
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessSea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates
- M. E. Dickson
- , H. Matsumoto
- & A. P. Young
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Article
| Open AccessThe potential of emerging bio-based products to reduce environmental impacts
Zuiderveen and colleagues find that emerging bio-based products have on average 45% lower greenhouse gas life cycle emissions compared to their fossil counterparts, yet, there is a large variation between individual bio-based products with none of them reaching netzero emissions.
- Emma A. R. Zuiderveen
- , Koen J. J. Kuipers
- & Mark A. J. Huijbregts
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Article
| Open AccessSolar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response
Here, the solar-cycle forcing and response are used to constrain climate sensitivity. Solar forcing does not involve aerosols and thus provides an independent and tighter constraint, reducing current uncertainty range by 2/3.
- King-Fai Li
- & Ka-Kit Tung
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Article
| Open AccessIntegrating climate change induced flood risk into future population projections
Using historical data across the U.S., the authors find that population declines are associated with flood exposure. Projecting this relationship to 2053, the authors find that flood risk may result in 7% lower growth than otherwise expected.
- Evelyn G. Shu
- , Jeremy R. Porter
- & Edward Kearns
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| Open AccessUncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation
Ben-Yami et al. present methods to quantify uncertainties and address biases in indicators for detecting stability changes in key Earth system components. Data gap filling introduces biases, but the stability decline in the North Atlantic remains significant.
- Maya Ben-Yami
- , Vanessa Skiba
- & Niklas Boers
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal transcontinental power pools for low-carbon electricity
By building transcontinental power pools, Yang and colleagues find global electricity demand can be 100% met by renewables, at an affordable cost.
- Haozhe Yang
- , Ranjit Deshmukh
- & Sangwon Suh
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Article
| Open AccessHigher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
High-resolution 2-km Antarctic maps reveal higher snowfall and surface melt than low-resolution products, reconciling satellite-observed ice sheet mass change. Projected higher surface melt near grounding lines threatens future ice shelf stability.
- Brice Noël
- , J. Melchior van Wessem
- & Michiel R. van den Broeke
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| Open AccessDemographics and risk of isolation due to sea level rise in the United States
Risk of isolation is expected to disproportionately affect racial minority populations in the U.S. as sea level rise increases. Communities with more renters, older adults, and lower-income populations will also be impacted.
- Kelsea Best
- , Qian He
- & Tom Logan
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Article
| Open AccessWarming-induced vapor pressure deficit suppression of vegetation growth diminished in northern peatlands
Growing vapor pressure deficit inhibits vegetation growth. Here, Chen et al. combine satellite and eddy covariance data with field experiments showing that plant growth in northern peatlands is not constrained by water even in the presence of a warming-induced water pressure deficit.
- Ning Chen
- , Yifei Zhang
- & Xianwei Wang
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Article
| Open AccessA physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate
Research examining the ability to survive or safely live under extreme heat often oversimplifies human exposure and responses. Here, the authors apply a physiology-based approach for young and older adults to improve survivability estimates and introduce liveability in current and future climates.
- Jennifer Vanos
- , Gisel Guzman-Echavarria
- & Ollie Jay
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Article
| Open AccessOcean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus
This paper shows the inherent coupling of winter cold extremes over land and marine heatwaves in the past decade. These events are projected to recur with increased frequency, especially when ocean fronts undergo anomalous decadal warming.
- Mi-Kyung Sung
- , Soon-Il An
- & Minhee Chang
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| Open AccessThe social costs of tropical cyclones
The estimates of the societal costs of carbon currently used for policy evaluations may be too low due to an insufficient representation of tropical cyclone damage. Accounting for them substantially increases the estimated benefits of climate change mitigation measures.
- Hazem Krichene
- , Thomas Vogt
- & Christian Otto
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Article
| Open AccessMiddle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan
In recent decades, land warming over the Middle East and a northward shift of the low-level jet in the atmosphere have led to unprecedented summer monsoon rainfall increase over Pakistan and northwestern India, areas that used to be arid to semi-arid.
- Baosheng Li
- , Lei Zhou
- & Raghu Murtugudde
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Article
| Open AccessRisk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions
While accounting for intrinsic differences between short- and long-lived greenhouse gases, solely relying on soil carbon sequestration in grasslands to offset warming effect of emissions from current ruminant systems is not feasible
- Yue Wang
- , Imke J. M. de Boer
- & Corina E. van Middelaar
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Article
| Open AccessPotential drivers of the recent large Antarctic ozone holes
The record-breaking ozone holes of recent years contribute to a steady decline of mid-spring ozone in the Antarctic, contrary to signs of early-spring recovery. Changes in descending air at the core of the ozone hole might be the driver.
- Hannah E. Kessenich
- , Annika Seppälä
- & Craig J. Rodger
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| Open AccessClimate warming and elevated CO2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability
No inherently stable peat soil carbon. Researchers found that all molecular components of peatland soil organic carbon responded to warming and eCO2, including the components presumed to be slow cycling and stable.
- Nicholas O. E. Ofiti
- , Michael W. I. Schmidt
- & Avni Malhotra
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| Open AccessAerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality
Future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather toward carbon neutrality. Aerosol impacts far outweigh those of greenhouse gases and tropospheric ozone.
- Pinya Wang
- , Yang Yang
- & Hong Liao
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| Open AccessReversed asymmetric warming of sub-diurnal temperature over land during recent decades
The authors find a significant increase in daily maximum temperature warming rates, while daily minimum temperatures remain stable over land in recent decades. This may be due to reduced cloud cover, leading to increased incoming solar radiation.
- Ziqian Zhong
- , Bin He
- & Xiang Zhao
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| Open AccessThe asymmetric effects of climate risk on higher-moment connectedness among carbon, energy and metals markets
Here the authors explore the connectedness of the carbon, energy, and metals markets. They find asymmetric effects of climate risk with higher physical risk impacts on upward risk spillovers, and greater transition risk effects on the downside risk of kurtosis connectedness.
- Yuqin Zhou
- , Shan Wu
- & Lavinia Rognone
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Article
| Open AccessDecarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030
Electric vehicle sales goals alone will not achieve light duty vehicle emissions targets. Other actions including decarbonizing the electric grid, mode shifting, vehicle downsizing, reducing travel demand, and accelerating fleet turnover, are needed.
- Maxwell Woody
- , Gregory A. Keoleian
- & Parth Vaishnav
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Article
| Open AccessIncreasing ocean wave energy observed in Earth’s seismic wavefield since the late 20th century
Ocean waves induce geographically extensive seafloor forces that excite a continuous and globally detectable seismic wavefield. This study infers global near-coastal average wave energy intensification at a rate of 0.27% per year since the late 1980’s, and 0.35% per year since January 2000.
- Richard C. Aster
- , Adam T. Ringler
- & Thomas A. Lee
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| Open AccessRecent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters
By analyzing historical and Argo observations, the authors find that the warming of mode and intermediate water layers drives most of the global upper 2000 m ocean warming, highlighting the outsized heat uptake by regional water masses in both hemispheres.
- Zhi Li
- , Matthew H. England
- & Sjoerd Groeskamp
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| Open AccessUrban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century
Considering changes in urban land extent, population, and climate over the 21st century, the authors find spatial urban land patterns can reduce rather than increase population exposures to climate extremes, even heat extremes, at regional scales.
- Jing Gao
- & Melissa S. Bukovsky
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Article
| Open AccessHeat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends
Heat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric circulation trends, favouring heat, missed by climate models.
- Robert Vautard
- , Julien Cattiaux
- & Pascal Yiou
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Article
| Open AccessWildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales
This paper shows that weather and fuel precursors show complementary predictability of wildfires extending across different timescales, which may be leveraged for seasonal or interannual wildfire prediction.
- Yuquan Qu
- , Diego G. Miralles
- & Carsten Montzka
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Article
| Open AccessClimate change projected to impact structural hillslope connectivity at the global scale
Global-scale structural connectivity is modeled by tectonic and climate processes. Modeling suggests that as the climate warms, it could lead to increased erosion in source areas, while decreased rainfall may hinder sediment flow downstream.
- Alexander T. Michalek
- , Gabriele Villarini
- & Admin Husic
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Article
| Open AccessDynamic redox and nutrient cycling response to climate forcing in the Mesoproterozoic ocean
Regional ocean redox variability and associated nutrient cycling in the Mesoproterozoic can be explained by climate forcing at individual locations, rather than specific events or step-changes in global oceanic redox conditions.
- Yafang Song
- , Fred T. Bowyer
- & Simon W. Poulton
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Article
| Open AccessArctic weather variability and connectivity
The authors use a complexity-based approach to analyze Arctic weather variability. They identify a pronounced link between the Arctic’s shrinking sea ice and global weather patterns, underscoring the critical role of the Arctic in shaping global climate.
- Jun Meng
- , Jingfang Fan
- & Jürgen Kurths
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Article
| Open AccessImpacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use
This study quantifies mid-21st century hourly building energy use in 277 urban areas in the USA, revealing spatially and temporally heterogeneous changes influenced by future climate, population dynamics, and electric power sector decarbonization.
- Chenghao Wang
- , Jiyun Song
- & Robert B. Jackson
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| Open AccessVertical structures of marine heatwaves
The authors identify four main types of vertical structures of marine heatwaves, with different impact depths and spatio-temporal distributions, that are influenced by multiscale ocean dynamical processes.
- Ying Zhang
- , Yan Du
- & Alistair J. Hobday
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| Open AccessWarming proportional to cumulative carbon emissions not explained by heat and carbon sharing mixing processes
This paper shows that the ratio of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions is constant due to complex interactions of physical and biogeochemical processes, and not because heat and carbon are mixed into the ocean by similar processes.
- Nathan P. Gillett
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Article
| Open AccessMoisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate
Despite hemispherically different responses, high-resolution model simulations used in this study show that moisture-related variables are the main regulators of tropical cyclone frequency under both orbital and greenhouse gas forcing.
- Pavan Harika Raavi
- , Jung-Eun Chu
- & Kevin J. E. Walsh
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Article
| Open AccessEnhanced joint impact of western hemispheric precursors increases extreme El Niño frequency under greenhouse warming
Using output from climate models, this study shows that a wetter mean state over the off-equatorial eastern Pacific is the single key driver of the enhanced impact of northwestern hemispheric precursors on ENSO under anthropogenic global warming.
- Hyun-Su Jo
- & Yoo-Geun Ham
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| Open AccessFuture precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect
A new emergent constraint on precipitation projection, based on a unified surface-energy-balance perspective that links hydrological and climate sensitivity to climatological cloud distribution, suggests a higher increase in global mean precipitation under climate change.
- Wenyu Zhou
- , L. Ruby Leung
- & Jian Lu
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| Open AccessEnhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events
The study identifies windows of opportunity for multi-year climate predictions, depending on the state of ENSO. Predictions started during El Niño and La Niña exhibit higher skill than predictions started during neutral ENSO conditions.
- Yiling Liu
- , Markus. G. Donat
- & Carlos Delgado-Torres
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| Open AccessClimate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures
The effects of climate change on the yield and aroma of beer hops remains unknown. Here the authors demonstrate a climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of traditional aroma hops across Europe and calls for urgent adaptation measures to stabilize international market chains.
- Martin Mozny
- , Miroslav Trnka
- & Ulf Büntgen
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Article
| Open AccessA cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming
Will snow become cleaner or dirtier in the future? Using Earth System Model simulations, this study reveals a cleaner snow future and highlights its benefits for future water supply from snowmelt.
- Dalei Hao
- , Gautam Bisht
- & L. Ruby Leung
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Article
| Open AccessUnchanged frequency and decreasing magnitude of outbursts from ice-dammed lakes in Alaska
This study triples the number of previously known glacial lake outbursts in Alaska, documenting 1150 events over 35 years. The frequency of events did not change over time but total lake volume decreased, likely reducing the regional flood hazard.
- B. Rick
- , D. McGrath
- & W. H. Armstrong
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal organic and inorganic aerosol hygroscopicity and its effect on radiative forcing
The effective hygroscopicity of organic matter and inorganic ions in atmospheric aerosols can be efficiently and accurately parameterized by global average values to constrain a critically important aspect in climate and Earth system models
- Mira L. Pöhlker
- , Christopher Pöhlker
- & Ulrich Pöschl
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| Open AccessSustainably developing global blue carbon for climate change mitigation and economic benefits through international cooperation
Sustainable development of blue carbon has increased globally over the past two decades. Global cooperation could enable countries to improve blue carbon sustainable development, increase carbon sequestration, and generate up to $136.34 million in 2030 in economic benefits.
- Cuicui Feng
- , Guanqiong Ye
- & Zhenci Xu
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| Open AccessCarbon intensity of global crude oil trading and market policy implications
Dixit et al. trace emissions from the extraction and transport of oil. They quantify emissions variability among crude blends and suggest how this variability could be used to further reduce emissions under scenarios for reduced future oil demand.
- Yash Dixit
- , Hassan El-Houjeiri
- & Steven R. H. Barrett
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| Open AccessEast Asian summer rainfall stimulated by subseasonal Indian monsoonal heating
The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons are found to be synchronized at the subseasonal timescale via a Rossby wave triggered by the Indian summer monsoon heating. The impact on East Asian precipitation varies with the subtropical jet structure.
- Shixue Li
- , Tomonori Sato
- & Wenkai Guo
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| Open AccessNonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change
Here the authors find economic damage from El Niño far greater than benefits from La Niña on the global economy, leading to an increased economic loss as ENSO variability intensifies under greenhouse warming.
- Yi Liu
- , Wenju Cai
- & Ying Zhang
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| Open AccessAir quality related equity implications of U.S. decarbonization policy
U.S. federal climate policies can reduce air pollutant emissions and associated health impacts from fine particulate matter. However, near-term CO2 reductions alone are insufficient to address racial/ethnic disparities in pollution exposure.
- Paul Picciano
- , Minghao Qiu
- & Noelle E. Selin