Climate change articles within Nature Communications

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    Enigmatic blooms of phytoplankton in aquatic oxygen-deficient zones could exacerbate depletion of nitrogen. Here the authors perform stable isotope experiments on the oxygen-deficient waters of Lake Tanganyika in Africa, finding that blooms drive down fixed nitrogen and could expand as a result of climate change.

    • Cameron M. Callbeck
    • , Benedikt Ehrenfels
    •  & Carsten J. Schubert

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Uncertainty in estimates of future climate arises not only from internal variability, but also from model-to-model differences. Here, the authors use a new set of single model initial-condition large ensembles to quantify the contribution of model differences to the overall uncertainty in temperature and precipitation projections.

    • Nicola Maher
    • , Scott B. Power
    •  & Jochem Marotzke

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Many cities in the US self-report greenhouse gas emissions. Here, the authors find that US cities under-report their own greenhouse gas emissions, on average, by 18.3% because city inventories omit some fuels and source types and estimate transportation emissions differently.

    • Kevin Robert Gurney
    • , Jianming Liang
    •  & Thomas Lauvaux

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Clays in soil impact atmospheric CO2 by stabilizing soil organic matter, yet the dynamics of this process under future climate conditions are unknown. Here the authors present a way to observe clay-carbon dynamics within micro-aggregates using 4D imaging and a customized microfluidic chip.

    • Judy Q. Yang
    • , Xinning Zhang
    •  & Howard A. Stone

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The regulation of aircraft engine NOx emissions was introduced to improve local air quality and reduce NOx emissions at altitude. Here, the authors find that greater fuel efficiency of aircrafts, and therefore lower CO2 emissions, could be preferable to reducing NOx emissions in terms of the aviation industries future climate impacts.

    • Agnieszka Skowron
    • , David S. Lee
    •  & Bethan Owen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Globally, new particle formation represents a major source of cloud condensation nuclei. Here, the authors present evidence of frequent occurrence of new particle formation in the upper part of remote marine boundary layer following cold front passages.

    • Guangjie Zheng
    • , Yang Wang
    •  & Jian Wang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The Southern Ocean takes up the most heat and carbon, yet because of its remote and harsh location, it remains relatively sparsely measured. Here the authors use a 25 year temperature series which shows a clear, long term trend in subsurface warming that emerges from interannual variability.

    • Matthis Auger
    • , Rosemary Morrow
    •  & Rebecca Cowley

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Global flood risk is assessed in this study; in particular, the authors describe, based on a modeling approach, the positive effect of river dams on mitigating flood hazards to people.

    • Julien Boulange
    • , Naota Hanasaki
    •  & Yadu Pokhrel

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Soils hold massive amounts of carbon that hangs in the balance of microbial respiration and climate warming. Here the authors analyze a global dataset starting in 1987 and find through modeling that though soil respiration change had flatlined, recently it has resumed increasing owing to global warming.

    • Jiesi Lei
    • , Xue Guo
    •  & Yunfeng Yang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Governments may struggle to impose costly polices on vital industries, resulting in a greater need for negative emissions. Here, the authors model a direct air capture crash deployment program, finding it can remove 2.3 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2050, 13–20 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2075, and 570–840 GtCO2 cumulative over 2025–2100.

    • Ryan Hanna
    • , Ahmed Abdulla
    •  & David G. Victor

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Human emissions are thought to have caused an increase in wildfire risk, but how different emission sources contribute is less well known. Here, the authors show that the increase due to greenhouse gas emissions was balanced by aerosol-driven cooling, an effect that is projected to disappear during the 21st century.

    • Danielle Touma
    • , Samantha Stevenson
    •  & Sloan Coats

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Grasslands, and the livestock that live there, are dynamic sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, but what controls these fluxes remains poorly characterized. Here the authors show that on the global level, grasslands are climate neutral owing to the cancelling effects of managed vs. natural systems.

    • Jinfeng Chang
    • , Philippe Ciais
    •  & Dan Zhu

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Ice arches that form along Nares Strait, which separates Greenland and Ellesmere Island, act to reduce the export of thick multi-year ice out of the Arctic. Here, we show that there has been a recent trend towards shorter duration arch formation that has resulted in enhanced transport of ice along the strait.

    • G. W. K. Moore
    • , S. E. L. Howell
    •  & K. McNeil

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Global energy transformation requires quantifying the "price of energy" and studying its evolution. Here the authors present a predictive framework that calculates the average US price of energy, estimating future energy demands for up to four years with excellent accuracy, designing and optimizing energy and monetary policies.

    • Stefanos G. Baratsas
    • , Alexander M. Niziolek
    •  & Efstratios N. Pistikopoulos

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The potential contribution of Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level rise in the future is known to be substantial. Here, the authors undertake new modelling showing that the Greenland Ice Sheet sea level rise contribution is 7.9 cm more using the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario compared to CMIP5 using multiple RCP8.5 simulations.

    • Stefan Hofer
    • , Charlotte Lang
    •  & Xavier Fettweis

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions not only amplify the global climate crisis, but cause damage currently unaccounted for by food prices. Here the authors show the calculation of prices with internalized climate costs for food categories and production systems, revealing strong market distortions.

    • Maximilian Pieper
    • , Amelie Michalke
    •  & Tobias Gaugler

  • Article
    | Open Access

    A Southern Ocean influences on the carbon cycle is considered a key component of deglacial changes. Here, the authors show spatial differences in glacial Southern Ocean carbon storage that dissipated rapidly 14.6 kyr ago, revealing a South Indian Ocean contribution to rapid deglacial atmospheric CO2 increases.

    • Julia Gottschalk
    • , Elisabeth Michel
    •  & Samuel L. Jaccard

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Terms such as ‘climate change’ and ‘climate crisis’ need to be evaluated for their effectiveness for public perception. In this study of a sample of the Taiwanese public reactions to the terms were largely the same, however, in specific subgroups the term ‘climate crisis’ faced some backlash.

    • Li-San Hung
    •  & Mucahid Mustafa Bayrak

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise and understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improved projections. Here the authors show Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers will likely exceed current worst-case scenario

    • Shfaqat A. Khan
    • , Anders A. Bjørk
    •  & Toni Schenk

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Many climate models failed to reproduce the eastern Pacific cooling that has been linked to slower warming in the early 20th century. Here, the authors present a feedback mechanism between the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic which contributes to this bias as it further dampens the Pacific cooling response in models.

    • Chen Li
    • , Dietmar Dommenget
    •  & Shayne McGregor

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The fate of the carbon locked away in soil is uncertain, and there are vast differences between models. Here the authors apply observational, spatio-temporal constraints on carbon turnover projections and find that uncertainty in estimations of carbon dynamics are reduced by 50%.

    • Rebecca M. Varney
    • , Sarah E. Chadburn
    •  & Peter M. Cox

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43°C.

    • Nico Wunderling
    • , Matteo Willeit
    •  & Ricarda Winkelmann

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Climate action from local actors is vital in achieving nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Here the authors show that existing commitments from U.S. states, cities and business could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, with expanded subnational action reducing emissions by 37% and federal action by up to 49%.

    • Nathan E. Hultman
    • , Leon Clarke
    •  & John O’Neill

  • Article
    | Open Access

    China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate new energy vehicle adoption. Here the authors show that the total Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 and a significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible by optimizing the Dual Credit policy.

    • Xin He
    • , Shiqi Ou
    •  & Michael Wang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Monsoon systems have strong impacts on precipitation and food security over large areas of the world. Here, the authors show that plant responses to rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere play a key role in modulating seasonal rainfall and water resources over global land monsoon regions.

    • Jiangpeng Cui
    • , Shilong Piao
    •  & Gabriel J. Kooperman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This study investigates the effect of changing sea level on deep sea gas emissions in the Arctic. The results show that small decreases in sea-level favors gas release. This implies that sea-level rise may partially counterbalance the effect of warming oceans on gas emissions overall.

    • Nabil Sultan
    • , Andreia Plaza-Faverola
    •  & Jochen Knies

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The authors estimate the damages associated with global temperature variability. They find that variability in temperature leads to substantial uncertainty about damages, which imposes costs equivalent to a large fraction of annual consumption today.

    • Raphael Calel
    • , Sandra C. Chapman
    •  & Nicholas W. Watkins

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Carbon stored in the Arctic is threatened by climate change, but models do not capture the local-scale heterogeneity that influences carbon dynamics. Here the authors refine tundra models to account for heterogeneity, finding improved projections and decreased uncertainty in assessing the fate of carbon.

    • M. J. Lara
    • , A. D. McGuire
    •  & S. D. Wullschleger

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Satellites provide clear evidence of greening trends in the Arctic, but high-resolution pan-Arctic quantification of these trends is lacking. Here the authors analyse high-resolution Landsat data to show widespread greening in the Arctic, and find that greening trends are linked to summer warming overall but not always locally.

    • Logan T. Berner
    • , Richard Massey
    •  & Scott J. Goetz

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The intermittency of solar resources is one of the primary challenges for the large-scale integration of the renewable energy. Here Yin et al. used satellite data and climate model outputs to evaluate the geographic patterns of future solar power reliability, highlighting the tradeoff between the maximum potential power and the power reliability.

    • Jun Yin
    • , Annalisa Molini
    •  & Amilcare Porporato

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Extreme events high up in the winter stratosphere are known to influence our weather and their predictability has potential to improve seasonal weather forecasts. Here, the authors examine factors that influence their generation and highlight a previously unrecognised sensitivity to the upper equatorial stratosphere.

    • L. J. Gray
    • , M. J. Brown
    •  & J. Anstey

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Svalbard glaciers are among the lowest ice masses in the Arctic, with a peak in glacier area below 450 m elevation. Using a high-resolution climate model, here the authors show that a modest warming in the mid-1980s propagated meltwater runoff above the glacier area peak, amplifying Svalbard mass loss from all elevations.

    • Brice Noël
    • , C. L. Jakobs
    •  & M. R. van den Broeke

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity remain debated. Here, the authors present new evidence for the magnitude and causes of U.S. crop insurance losses, using a database of production risk from 1989–2014 across 1733 counties for corn and 1632 counties for soybeans, and find that crop production risk will increase in response to warmer temperatures.

    • Edward D. Perry
    • , Jisang Yu
    •  & Jesse Tack

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The methane emissions from natural gas vehicles (NGVs) are unclear. Here the authors report high methane emissions from heavy-duty NGVs, and by using a scenario analysis show that strictly implementing the upcoming China VI standard could reduce GHG emissions by 509 Mt CO2eq for 2020-2030.

    • Da Pan
    • , Lei Tao
    •  & Mark A. Zondlo

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The spatial pattern and global mean values of warming differ between different climate models, an issue that needs to be better understood in order to obtain reliable regional projections. Here, the authors show that ice-albedo and water vapor feedbacks are the key processes that are responsible for this inter-model spread.

    • Xiaoming Hu
    • , Hanjie Fan
    •  & Song Yang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Ocean uptake of carbon dioxide impacts the climate, but flux estimates from surface measurements have not been corrected for temperature differences between surface and water sampling depth. Making that correction, the authors find previous estimates for ocean uptake have been substantially underestimated.

    • Andrew J. Watson
    • , Ute Schuster
    •  & Lonneke Goddijn-Murphy

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Wheat yield is sensitive to temperature, but there could be substantial variation in this response across cultivars. Here the authors present data on the climatic responses of wheat cultivars in South Africa, highlighting which cultivars might be better able to maintain yield under warming.

    • Aaron M. Shew
    • , Jesse B. Tack
    •  & Petronella Chaminuka

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña episodes in the tropical Pacific is often not well represented in models. Here, the authors show that this asymmetry is related to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating and that a realistic representation of this process can potentially improve tropical climate projections.

    • Michiya Hayashi
    • , Fei-Fei Jin
    •  & Malte F. Stuecker

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Prior studies mapping climatologically suitable areas for malaria transmission have used relatively simple thresholds for precipitation. Here the authors show that when models incorporate hydrological processes a more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges in Africa and future shifts in suitability are more pronounced.

    • M. W. Smith
    • , T. Willis
    •  & C. J. Thomas

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Predicting the fate of carbon in peatlands relies on assumptions of behaviour in response to temperature. Here, the authors show that the temperature dependency of respiratory carbon losses shift strongly over day-night cycles, an overlooked facet causing bias in peatland carbon cycle simulations.

    • Järvi Järveoja
    • , Mats B. Nilsson
    •  & Matthias Peichl

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    Climate science and climate economics are critical sources of expertise in our pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals. Effective use of this expertise requires a strengthening of its epistemic foundations and a renewed focus on more practical policy problems.

    • David A. Stainforth
    •  & Raphael Calel

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Global mean sea surface surface temperature shows decadal fluctuations superimposed to the warming trend whose causes are still debated. Here, the authors provide a quantification of relative contributions of different drivers and conclude that both internal and externally-forced variability play a comparable role.

    • Giovanni Liguori
    • , Shayne McGregor
    •  & Gerald A. Meehl

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Drylands cover nearly half of Earth’s surface, yet how they will fare in light of anthropogenic climate change is debated. Here the authors find that over the past 40 years climate change has pushed ~13% of drylands towards desertification threatening hundreds of millions of people in developing nations.

    • A. L. Burrell
    • , J. P. Evans
    •  & M. G. De Kauwe

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Climate change may impact groundwater storage and thus the availability of freshwater resources. Here the authors use climate models to examine seven aquifers and find that storage changes are primarily the result of enhancement of evapotranspiration, reduction in snowmelt, and over-pumping rather than long-term precipitation changes.

    • Wen-Ying Wu
    • , Min-Hui Lo
    •  & Zong-Liang Yang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Strong mitigation of anthropogenic emissions is necessary, but it is not clear how fast these efforts would lead to temperature changes. Here, the authors find that there is a substantial delay between reductions of emissions and a detectable change in surface temperature for a number of climate forcers.

    • B. H. Samset
    • , J. S. Fuglestvedt
    •  & M. T. Lund

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and more intense under global warming, but how these trends differ on a regional scale is not well known. Here, the authors provide a comprehensive assessment of regional changes and show that most heat indicaters have increased since the 1950s.

    • S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick
    •  & S. C. Lewis

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