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| Open AccessGlobal LiDAR land elevation data reveal greatest sea-level rise vulnerability in the tropics
Predicting the risk of flooding in coastal environments relies on accurate land elevation data, but this is not available in many parts of the world. Here the authors apply a global lowland digital terrain model derived from satellite LiDAR and determine that the regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise are in the tropics.
- A. Hooijer
- & R. Vernimmen
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| Open AccessTectonic and climatic drivers of Asian monsoon evolution
The drivers of monsoon systems in the past are not well known. Here, the authors present a model-based reconstruction of the last 30 million years and show that the south east Asian monsoon evolution is dominated by orographic development while the strength of the Indian Summer monsoon is controlled by a combination of factors.
- James R. Thomson
- , Philip B. Holden
- & Nigel B. W. Harris
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| Open AccessImpact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa
Release of freshwater into the oceans as a result of ice sheet melting could impact the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases. Here, the authors show that a rapid ice sheet melting in Greenland could cause an emergence of malaria in Southern Africa whilst transmission risks in West Africa may decline.
- Alizée Chemison
- , Gilles Ramstein
- & Cyril Caminade
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| Open AccessClimate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone
Despite a ban on ozone depleting substances, ozone depletion during cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere has been increasing in recent decades. Here, the authors show conditions favourable for Arctic ozone depletion could worsen as a response of stratospheric temperature and water to continued release of greenhouse gases.
- Peter von der Gathen
- , Rigel Kivi
- & Markus Rex
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| Open AccessEvaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects
Aviation contributes to climate change and ways to reduce its emissions are widely debated. Here, the authors assess the effects of technology improvements and the use of sustainable aviation fuels and find that even when these are considered aviation is unlikely to meet emissions goals in line with the Paris Agreement.
- Volker Grewe
- , Arvind Gangoli Rao
- & Katrin Dahlmann
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| Open AccessLarge model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves
Understanding the uncertainties associated with urban heat wave (UHW) projection is critical for local actions to mitigate extreme heat risks in cities. Here, the authors show that choices of model structural design contribute a large proportion of the uncertainty in projecting UHWs under climate change.
- Zhonghua Zheng
- , Lei Zhao
- & Keith W. Oleson
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| Open AccessFuture climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response
The impacts of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) decline in future climate change are uncertain. Here the authors show that the inter-model spread in the AMOC response in global climate models amplify uncertainties in the projections of temperature, rainfall and the jet-stream.
- Katinka Bellomo
- , Michela Angeloni
- & Jost von Hardenberg
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| Open AccessTiming of iceberg scours and massive ice-rafting events in the subtropical North Atlantic
Sediment core analyses and numerical iceberg modeling suggest icebergs from the North American ice sheets were entrained in large glacial meltwater currents and drifted as far south as the Florida Keys several times during the past ~40,000 years.
- Alan Condron
- & Jenna C. Hill
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| Open AccessCross-border climate vulnerabilities of the European Union to drought
European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders. Here the authors find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change.
- Ertug Ercin
- , Ted I. E. Veldkamp
- & Johannes Hunink
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| Open AccessSignificant underestimation of radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions derived from satellite-based methods
Satellite-based estimates of radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions are consistently smaller than those from global models, hampering accurate projections of future climate change. Here, the authors show that the discrepancy can be substantially reduced by correcting sampling biases induced by inherent limitations of satellite measurements.
- Hailing Jia
- , Xiaoyan Ma
- & Johannes Quaas
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| Open AccessLimited application of reflective surfaces can mitigate urban heat pollution
Reflective surfaces have been recommended to mitigate urban heat pollution but can be expensive to apply at a large scale. This work shows that applying them to only the upstream half of a neighborhood can lead to disporportionately high cooling benefits relative to cost.
- Sushobhan Sen
- & Lev Khazanovich
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| Open AccessA first constraint on basal melt-water production of the Greenland ice sheet
Melting at the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet is often disregarded as a source of quantifiable mass loss. In this study, the authors find the basal mass loss is equivalent to 8% of the ice sheet’s present imbalance, and that the loss of mass from basal melt is likely to increase in the future.
- Nanna B. Karlsson
- , Anne M. Solgaard
- & Robert S. Fausto
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| Open AccessThe influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
Tree rings are a crucial archive for Common Era climate reconstructions, but the degree to which methodological decisions influence outcomes is not well known. Here, the authors show how different approaches taken by 15 different groups influence the ensemble temperature reconstruction from the same data.
- Ulf Büntgen
- , Kathy Allen
- & Jan Esper
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| Open AccessInvestment incentive reduced by climate damages can be restored by optimal policy
Climate change is likely to damage economies worldwide. Here the authors show that this strongly reduces incentives to invest causing additional losses, whereas if investors include climate-change mitigation in their action portfolio they can avoid damages for themselves and the global economy.
- Sven N. Willner
- , Nicole Glanemann
- & Anders Levermann
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| Open AccessOpen fire exposure increases the risk of pregnancy loss in South Asia
Open fires can increase heavy exposure to hazardous particulate matters, and thus harm human health, particularly among the vulnerable individuals, such as pregnant women. Here, the authors show an association between maternal exposure to fire smoke and increased risk of pregnancy loss in South Asia.
- Tao Xue
- , Guannan Geng
- & Tong Zhu
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| Open AccessSpatially explicit analysis identifies significant potential for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in China
China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. Here the authors find a promising option to abate 1.0 Gt CO2-eq yr−1 of carbon emissions at a marginal cost of $69 (t CO2-eq)−1 by retrofitting 222 GW of coal power plants to co-fire with biomass and upgrading to CCS operation across 2836 counties in China.
- Xiaofan Xing
- , Rong Wang
- & Siqing Xu
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| Open AccessDisproportionate exposure to urban heat island intensity across major US cities
Individual exposure to heat is associated with adverse health and economic outcomes. Here, the authors show that people of color and people living in poverty bear a disproportionate burden of urban heat exposure in almost all major cities in the continental United States.
- Angel Hsu
- , Glenn Sheriff
- & Diego Manya
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| Open AccessSpurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño
It has been suggested that sea surface temperatures in the North Tropical Atlantic exert strong influence on the evolution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, the authors argue that observed statistics are fully consistent with ENSO driving climate variations in the Atlantic and not vice versa.
- Wenjun Zhang
- , Feng Jiang
- & Axel Timmermann
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| Open AccessDeep learning for bias correction of MJO prediction
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a crucial component of the tropical weather system, but forecasting it has been challenging. Here, the authors present a deep learning bias correction method that significantly improves multi-model forecasts of the MJO amplitude and phase for up to four weeks.
- H. Kim
- , Y. G. Ham
- & S. W. Son
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| Open AccessA small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback
How to curb climate change is uncertain, in part because determination of allowable emissions depends on models with low accuracy. Here the authors re-analyze climate-carbon feedbacks and find that CO2 emissions could be 9 ± 7% higher and still meet Paris Agreement goals.
- Xuanze Zhang
- , Ying-Ping Wang
- & Yongqiang Zhang
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| Open AccessA well-timed shift from local to global agreements accelerates climate change mitigation
Do we mitigate climate change in a Kyoto style global agreement or via multiple agreements among smaller groups of states? Here the authors show that the best strategy may begin with regional legally binding, aggressive agreements and, as these become common, renew pursuit of a global legally-binding treaty.
- Vadim A. Karatayev
- , Vítor V. Vasconcelos
- & Madhur Anand
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| Open AccessJoint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions
The production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) was phased-out under the Montreal, but renewed emissions of CFC-11 have been reported recently. Here, the authors present a joint analysis of multiple factors and find that emissions of CFC-11, but also CFC-12 and CFC-113 are higher than expected, indicating renewed emissions.
- Megan Lickley
- , Sarah Fletcher
- & Susan Solomon
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| Open AccessEconomic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change
Sea level rise amplifies coastal storm impacts, but the role of anthropogenic climate change is poorly resolved. Here the authors reassess Hurricane Sandy, using a dynamic flood model to show that anthropogenic sea level rise added a central estimate of $8 billion in damages.
- Benjamin H. Strauss
- , Philip M. Orton
- & Sergey Vinogradov
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| Open AccessEvidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
Most studies have examined the impacts of human-driven climate change on mean or extreme climate variables and have neglected to explore interrelated drought features. Here, the authors show that the presence of human activity has increased the number and maximum length and intensity of drought events across the globe.
- Felicia Chiang
- , Omid Mazdiyasni
- & Amir AghaKouchak
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| Open AccessProtecting local water quality has global benefits
Clean water is a fundamental resource, yet the economic impacts of pollution, drinking water availability, and greenhouse gas emissions from freshwaters are unknown. Here the authors combine models with economic assessments and find trillions of dollars in savings by mitigating lake methane emissions.
- John A. Downing
- , Stephen Polasky
- & Stephen C. Newbold
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| Open Access1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
Established climate mitigation modelling relies on controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, but neglects to consider degrowth scenarios. Here the authors show that degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability and thus need to be thoroughly assessed.
- Lorenz T. Keyßer
- & Manfred Lenzen
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| Open AccessTimescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios
In this study, the authors investigate a scenario where global temperature increase is limited to 1.5 °C. They find that Arctic ecosystems will need centuries to adapt to such an increase and that the ensuing steady-state depends on the preceding climate trajectory.
- Philipp de Vrese
- & Victor Brovkin
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| Open AccessDeforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon
Deforestation in the Amazon region has suggested to influence precipitation in a non-linear way. Here, the authors show that forest loss is associated with decreasing precipitation after a scale-dependent threshold is crossed, which can cause stress on agriculture if deforestation is expanded.
- Argemiro Teixeira Leite-Filho
- , Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho
- & Jan Börner
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| Open AccessCombining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty
Ambitious climate policies can negatively impact the global poor by affecting income, food and energy prices. Here, the authors quantify this effect, and show that it can be compensated by national redistribution of the carbon pricing revenues in combination with international climate finance.
- Bjoern Soergel
- , Elmar Kriegler
- & Alexander Popp
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| Open AccessA heterocyte glycolipid-based calibration to reconstruct past continental climate change
Understanding the past is necessary to comprehend Earth’s response to present climate change, but past climate reconstruction is hampered by a lack of temperature proxies. Here the authors develop the HDI26, a proxy using cyanobacterial glycolipids to reconstruct water temperatures of lakes worldwide.
- Thorsten Bauersachs
- , James M. Russell
- & Lorenz Schwark
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| Open AccessPhenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change
Stratification has a considerable influence on lake ecology, but there is little understanding of past or future changes in its seasonality. Here, the authors use modelling and empirical data to determine that between 1901–2099, climate change causes stratification to start earlier and end later.
- R. Iestyn Woolway
- , Sapna Sharma
- & Eleanor Jennings
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| Open AccessSubstantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions
Wetland methane emissions contribute to global warming, and are oversimplified in climate models. Here the authors use eddy covariance measurements from 48 global sites to demonstrate seasonal hysteresis in methane-temperature relationships and suggest the importance of microbial processes.
- Kuang-Yu Chang
- , William J. Riley
- & Donatella Zona
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| Open AccessAlternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal
Many trajectories for reaching climate change mitigation targets exaggerate the long-term need for CO2 removal (CDR) because they assume an exponentially increasing carbon price. Here the authors analyse alternative carbon price pathways that halt warming while limiting CDR, and may be easier to implement.
- Jessica Strefler
- , Elmar Kriegler
- & Ottmar Edenhofer
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| Open AccessMarginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill
Climate models struggle to track the response of Arctic sea ice to warming, leading to efforts to improve sea-ice models. Here the author shows standard model metrics are poor judges of the impact of model improvements, but a new one, marginal ice zone fraction, is optimally suited to this task.
- Christopher Horvat
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| Open AccessNet-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement
Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions targets. Here, the authors show that a country’s potential for negative emissions and methodological issues affect when countries can reach net-zero, calling for clear internationally agreed definitions and accounting methods.
- Heleen L. van Soest
- , Michel G. J. den Elzen
- & Detlef P. van Vuuren
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| Open AccessClimate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation
This study introduces an empirical modeling approach allowing to separate climate and socio-economic drivers of damages by fluvial floods. It shows that climate signals are clearly detectable in Asia and Latin America.
- Inga J. Sauer
- , Ronja Reese
- & Katja Frieler
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| Open AccessOcean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming
There is some disagreement between climate models about how much precipitation changes under global warming. Here, the authors use the ocean surface energy balance to constrain the sensitivity of precipitation to historical warming and find that it is increasing by 0.68 ± 0.51% per degree warming.
- Wei Wang
- , T. C. Chakraborty
- & Xuhui Lee
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| Open AccessSix-fold increase of atmospheric pCO2 during the Permian–Triassic mass extinction
The Permian–Triassic mass extinction was accompanied by a massive release of carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, but the magnitude of change is not well known. Here, the authors present a new record of C3 plants from southwestern China which shows that atmospheric pCO2 increased by a factor of six during this event.
- Yuyang Wu
- , Daoliang Chu
- & Ying Cui
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| Open AccessSkilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead
Long-range predictions of the Asian summer monsoon remain challenging due to its complex atmosphere–land–ocean interactions. Here, the authors show that a large ensemble of model simulations can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead.
- Yuhei Takaya
- , Yu Kosaka
- & Shuhei Maeda
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Article
| Open AccessClimatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration
Adverse climatic conditions are commonly reported to shape asylum migration, but their effect relative to other drivers is unknown. Here the authors compare climatic, economic, and political factors as predictors of future asylum flows to the EU and find that war and repression are the most important factors.
- Sebastian Schutte
- , Jonas Vestby
- & Halvard Buhaug
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| Open AccessTwo-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change
New simulations find that one of Antarctica’s largest ice shelves, the Filchner–Ronne, may be less vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Melting of the ice shelf initially decreases for many decades, and only increases when global warming exceeds approximately 7 °C.
- Kaitlin A. Naughten
- , Jan De Rydt
- & Jeff K. Ridley
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| Open AccessRecent global decrease in the inner-core rain rate of tropical cyclones
How the rainfall intensity of tropical cyclones changes with climate change is not well known. Here, the authors show that while the rain rate in the outer region of TCs is clearly increasing between 1999 and 2018, it decreases significantly in the inner-core of TCs during 1999-2018.
- Shifei Tu
- , Jianjun Xu
- & Long S. Chiu
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Article
| Open AccessEvaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world
The impacts of water scarcity depend on physical basin characteristics and global economic dynamics. Here, the authors show scenario assumptions can yield either highly positive or negative economic impacts due to water scarcity, and the drivers of these impacts are basin-specific and cannot be determined a priori.
- Flannery Dolan
- , Jonathan Lamontagne
- & Jae Edmonds
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| Open AccessMeasuring inequality in community resilience to natural disasters using large-scale mobility data
Understanding how cities respond to extreme weather is critical; as such events are becoming more frequent. Using anonymized mobile phone data for Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the authors find that mobility behavior exposes neighborhood disparities in resilience capacity and recovery.
- Boyeong Hong
- , Bartosz J. Bonczak
- & Constantine E. Kontokosta
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Article
| Open AccessVegetation feedback causes delayed ecosystem response to East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall during the Holocene
How the East Asian Summer Monsoon has changed over the Holocene has been debated, as some proxy records disagree with each other. Here, the authors suggest that monsoonal rainfall peaked in the early Holocene, while ecosystem responses peaked in the mid-Holocene, explaining the differences between records.
- Jun Cheng
- , Haibin Wu
- & Yaoming Song
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| Open AccessCommon Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast
Sea-level rise is an important part of climate change, but most sea-level budgets are global and cannot capture important regional changes. Here the authors estimate sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast, finding a faster rate of rise during the 20th century than any time in the past 2000 years.
- Jennifer S. Walker
- , Robert E. Kopp
- & Benjamin P. Horton
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| Open AccessSubstantial decrease in CO2 emissions from Chinese inland waters due to global change
Inland waters emit greenhouse gases, but robust estimations are hampered by a dearth of spatio-temporally resolved measurements. Here the authors present annual fluxes of CO2 from Chinese inland waters over the past several decades, showing that emission fluxes have significantly declined since the 80s.
- Lishan Ran
- , David E. Butman
- & Shaoda Liu
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| Open AccessENSO modulates wildfire activity in China
Fire activity in China and its associations with climate are not well quantified at a local scale. Here, the authors present a detailed fire occurrence dataset for China and find a dipole fire pattern between southwestern and southeastern China that is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
- Keyan Fang
- , Qichao Yao
- & Valerie Trouet
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| Open AccessLarge carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change
This study uses regional and global remote sensing data to assess the regrowth of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon biome. The authors find differences of regrowth rates due to climate, forest fires and deforestation actions and further quantify their carbon capture potential.
- Viola H. A. Heinrich
- , Ricardo Dalagnol
- & Luiz E. O. C. Aragão