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| Open AccessIrrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change
The authors here model how water stress would be affected either by biomass plantations combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in a strong climate mitigation scenario (1.5 °C warming in 2100) or by climate impacts in a strong climate change scenario (3 °C warming in 2100).
- Fabian Stenzel
- , Peter Greve
- & Dieter Gerten
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| Open AccessAntarctic Peninsula warm winters influenced by Tasman Sea temperatures
The Antarctic Peninsula sees some of the strongest warming of the whole continent over the last decades, the drivers of which are not well known. Here, the authors show that winter sea surface temperature increases in the Tasman sea lead to changes in Southern Ocean storm tracks that in turn warm the Antarctic Peninsula.
- Kazutoshi Sato
- , Jun Inoue
- & Irina Rudeva
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| Open AccessMean sea surface temperature changes influence ENSO-related precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes
El Niño-driven precipitation profoundly affects the mid-latitudes, but how this impact changes in the future is uncertain. Here, the authors show that changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures causes an increase in rainfall linked to El Niño events of about 20% over East Asia and North America.
- Young-Min Yang
- , Jae-Heung Park
- & Xiao Luo
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| Open AccessContrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest
Warming in the US Midwest is believed to increase the water needed to grow crops. This study finds that, on the contrary, due to rising rainfall and minimum temperature, and decreasing maximum temperature, potential crop water demand remains unchanged despite the warming climate.
- Bruno Basso
- , Rafael A. Martinez-Feria
- & Joe T. Ritchie
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| Open AccessPower sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean
Substantial investment will be required in renewables to implement climate change mitigation. Here, the authors focus on Latin America and the Caribbean and find that climate impacts on renewables would result in additional investments $12-114 billion by 2100.
- Silvia R. Santos da Silva
- , Mohamad I. Hejazi
- & Chris R. Vernon
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| Open AccessCarbon prospecting in tropical forests for climate change mitigation
Investing in forest protection is a way to generate tradable carbon credits to support biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. Here the authors assess and map the global supply of tropical forest carbon credits with the goal of informing climate policy and investments.
- Lian Pin Koh
- , Yiwen Zeng
- & Kelly Siman
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Article
| Open AccessLabrador Sea freshening linked to Beaufort Gyre freshwater release
The Beaufort Gyre in the western Arctic Ocean has accumulated a large amount of freshwater. Here, the authors show that a historical release in the 1980s resulted in a strong freshening of the western Labrador Sea, suggesting that a future release of the current freshwater volume could even be more impactful.
- Jiaxu Zhang
- , Wilbert Weijer
- & Milena Veneziani
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| Open AccessAnnual aboveground carbon uptake enhancements from assisted gene flow in boreal black spruce forests are not long-lasting
The long-term effectiveness of assisted gene flow of trees could be jeopardised by rapid climate change. Here the authors analyse a large dataset of relocated black spruce populations in Canada, finding that local adaptation to climate of origin improved NPP responses, but only for up to ~15 years after planting.
- Martin P. Girardin
- , Nathalie Isabel
- & Patrick Lenz
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| Open AccessObserved Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity
Climate models typically fail to capture the observed Antarctic sea ice expansion during recent decades. Here, the authors show that the observed expansion is reproduced in a climate model after removing biases in the sea ice drift velocity.
- Shantong Sun
- & Ian Eisenman
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| Open AccessProjecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China
Global warming is expected to increase mortality due to heat stress in many regions. Here, the authors asses how mortality due to high temperatures changes in China changes for different demographic groups and show that heat-related excess mortality is increasing under climate change, a process that is strongly amplified by population ageing.
- Jun Yang
- , Maigeng Zhou
- & Qiyong Liu
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| Open AccessReconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations
Evaluating sea-level projections used by the IPCC is challenging due to the short overlap with measurements. Here, the authors show that observed global and regional sea-level trends confirm projections and that the acceleration of sea-level rise is between the one expected from the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
- Jinping Wang
- , John A. Church
- & Xianyao Chen
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Article
| Open AccessAnoxic chlorophyll maximum enhances local organic matter remineralization and nitrogen loss in Lake Tanganyika
Enigmatic blooms of phytoplankton in aquatic oxygen-deficient zones could exacerbate depletion of nitrogen. Here the authors perform stable isotope experiments on the oxygen-deficient waters of Lake Tanganyika in Africa, finding that blooms drive down fixed nitrogen and could expand as a result of climate change.
- Cameron M. Callbeck
- , Benedikt Ehrenfels
- & Carsten J. Schubert
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| Open AccessMore accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century
Uncertainty in estimates of future climate arises not only from internal variability, but also from model-to-model differences. Here, the authors use a new set of single model initial-condition large ensembles to quantify the contribution of model differences to the overall uncertainty in temperature and precipitation projections.
- Nicola Maher
- , Scott B. Power
- & Jochem Marotzke
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| Open AccessUnder-reporting of greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. cities
Many cities in the US self-report greenhouse gas emissions. Here, the authors find that US cities under-report their own greenhouse gas emissions, on average, by 18.3% because city inventories omit some fuels and source types and estimate transportation emissions differently.
- Kevin Robert Gurney
- , Jianming Liang
- & Thomas Lauvaux
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| Open Access4D imaging reveals mechanisms of clay-carbon protection and release
Clays in soil impact atmospheric CO2 by stabilizing soil organic matter, yet the dynamics of this process under future climate conditions are unknown. Here the authors present a way to observe clay-carbon dynamics within micro-aggregates using 4D imaging and a customized microfluidic chip.
- Judy Q. Yang
- , Xinning Zhang
- & Howard A. Stone
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Article
| Open AccessGreater fuel efficiency is potentially preferable to reducing NOx emissions for aviation’s climate impacts
The regulation of aircraft engine NOx emissions was introduced to improve local air quality and reduce NOx emissions at altitude. Here, the authors find that greater fuel efficiency of aircrafts, and therefore lower CO2 emissions, could be preferable to reducing NOx emissions in terms of the aviation industries future climate impacts.
- Agnieszka Skowron
- , David S. Lee
- & Bethan Owen
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| Open AccessNew particle formation in the remote marine boundary layer
Globally, new particle formation represents a major source of cloud condensation nuclei. Here, the authors present evidence of frequent occurrence of new particle formation in the upper part of remote marine boundary layer following cold front passages.
- Guangjie Zheng
- , Yang Wang
- & Jian Wang
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| Open AccessSouthern Ocean in-situ temperature trends over 25 years emerge from interannual variability
The Southern Ocean takes up the most heat and carbon, yet because of its remote and harsh location, it remains relatively sparsely measured. Here the authors use a 25 year temperature series which shows a clear, long term trend in subsurface warming that emerges from interannual variability.
- Matthis Auger
- , Rosemary Morrow
- & Rebecca Cowley
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| Open AccessRole of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change
Global flood risk is assessed in this study; in particular, the authors describe, based on a modeling approach, the positive effect of river dams on mitigating flood hazards to people.
- Julien Boulange
- , Naota Hanasaki
- & Yadu Pokhrel
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| Open AccessTemporal changes in global soil respiration since 1987
Soils hold massive amounts of carbon that hangs in the balance of microbial respiration and climate warming. Here the authors analyze a global dataset starting in 1987 and find through modeling that though soil respiration change had flatlined, recently it has resumed increasing owing to global warming.
- Jiesi Lei
- , Xue Guo
- & Yunfeng Yang
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| Open AccessEmergency deployment of direct air capture as a response to the climate crisis
Governments may struggle to impose costly polices on vital industries, resulting in a greater need for negative emissions. Here, the authors model a direct air capture crash deployment program, finding it can remove 2.3 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2050, 13–20 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2075, and 570–840 GtCO2 cumulative over 2025–2100.
- Ryan Hanna
- , Ahmed Abdulla
- & David G. Victor
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| Open AccessHuman-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather
Human emissions are thought to have caused an increase in wildfire risk, but how different emission sources contribute is less well known. Here, the authors show that the increase due to greenhouse gas emissions was balanced by aerosol-driven cooling, an effect that is projected to disappear during the 21st century.
- Danielle Touma
- , Samantha Stevenson
- & Sloan Coats
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| Open AccessClimate warming from managed grasslands cancels the cooling effect of carbon sinks in sparsely grazed and natural grasslands
Grasslands, and the livestock that live there, are dynamic sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, but what controls these fluxes remains poorly characterized. Here the authors show that on the global level, grasslands are climate neutral owing to the cancelling effects of managed vs. natural systems.
- Jinfeng Chang
- , Philippe Ciais
- & Dan Zhu
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| Open AccessAnomalous collapses of Nares Strait ice arches leads to enhanced export of Arctic sea ice
Ice arches that form along Nares Strait, which separates Greenland and Ellesmere Island, act to reduce the export of thick multi-year ice out of the Arctic. Here, we show that there has been a recent trend towards shorter duration arch formation that has resulted in enhanced transport of ice along the strait.
- G. W. K. Moore
- , S. E. L. Howell
- & K. McNeil
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| Open AccessA framework to predict the price of energy for the end-users with applications to monetary and energy policies
Global energy transformation requires quantifying the "price of energy" and studying its evolution. Here the authors present a predictive framework that calculates the average US price of energy, estimating future energy demands for up to four years with excellent accuracy, designing and optimizing energy and monetary policies.
- Stefanos G. Baratsas
- , Alexander M. Niziolek
- & Efstratios N. Pistikopoulos
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| Open AccessGreater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6
The potential contribution of Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level rise in the future is known to be substantial. Here, the authors undertake new modelling showing that the Greenland Ice Sheet sea level rise contribution is 7.9 cm more using the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario compared to CMIP5 using multiple RCP8.5 simulations.
- Stefan Hofer
- , Charlotte Lang
- & Xavier Fettweis
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| Open AccessCalculation of external climate costs for food highlights inadequate pricing of animal products
Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions not only amplify the global climate crisis, but cause damage currently unaccounted for by food prices. Here the authors show the calculation of prices with internalized climate costs for food categories and production systems, revealing strong market distortions.
- Maximilian Pieper
- , Amelie Michalke
- & Tobias Gaugler
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| Open AccessGlacial heterogeneity in Southern Ocean carbon storage abated by fast South Indian deglacial carbon release
A Southern Ocean influences on the carbon cycle is considered a key component of deglacial changes. Here, the authors show spatial differences in glacial Southern Ocean carbon storage that dissipated rapidly 14.6 kyr ago, revealing a South Indian Ocean contribution to rapid deglacial atmospheric CO2 increases.
- Julia Gottschalk
- , Elisabeth Michel
- & Samuel L. Jaccard
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| Open AccessComparing the effects of climate change labelling on reactions of the Taiwanese public
Terms such as ‘climate change’ and ‘climate crisis’ need to be evaluated for their effectiveness for public perception. In this study of a sample of the Taiwanese public reactions to the terms were largely the same, however, in specific subgroups the term ‘climate crisis’ faced some backlash.
- Li-San Hung
- & Mucahid Mustafa Bayrak
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| Open AccessCentennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers
The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise and understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improved projections. Here the authors show Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers will likely exceed current worst-case scenario
- Shfaqat A. Khan
- , Anders A. Bjørk
- & Toni Schenk
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| Open AccessTrans-basin Atlantic-Pacific connections further weakened by common model Pacific mean SST biases
Many climate models failed to reproduce the eastern Pacific cooling that has been linked to slower warming in the early 20th century. Here, the authors present a feedback mechanism between the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic which contributes to this bias as it further dampens the Pacific cooling response in models.
- Chen Li
- , Dietmar Dommenget
- & Shayne McGregor
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| Open AccessA spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming
The fate of the carbon locked away in soil is uncertain, and there are vast differences between models. Here the authors apply observational, spatio-temporal constraints on carbon turnover projections and find that uncertainty in estimations of carbon dynamics are reduced by 50%.
- Rebecca M. Varney
- , Sarah E. Chadburn
- & Peter M. Cox
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| Open AccessGlobal warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43°C.
- Nico Wunderling
- , Matteo Willeit
- & Ricarda Winkelmann
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| Open AccessFusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States
Climate action from local actors is vital in achieving nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Here the authors show that existing commitments from U.S. states, cities and business could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, with expanded subnational action reducing emissions by 37% and federal action by up to 49%.
- Nathan E. Hultman
- , Leon Clarke
- & John O’Neill
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| Open AccessGreenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy
China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate new energy vehicle adoption. Here the authors show that the total Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 and a significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible by optimizing the Dual Credit policy.
- Xin He
- , Shiqi Ou
- & Michael Wang
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| Open AccessRecent fall Eurasian cooling linked to North Pacific sea surface temperatures and a strengthening Siberian high
In the last years, an extensive winter cooling over central Eurasia has been discussed widely. Here, the authors show that from 2004–2018, the Eurasian cooling in autumn is stronger than that in winter, and that this autumn cooling is likely influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Siberian high.
- Baofu Li
- , Yupeng Li
- & Xun Shi
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| Open AccessVegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO2-enriched climate
Monsoon systems have strong impacts on precipitation and food security over large areas of the world. Here, the authors show that plant responses to rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere play a key role in modulating seasonal rainfall and water resources over global land monsoon regions.
- Jiangpeng Cui
- , Shilong Piao
- & Gabriel J. Kooperman
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| Open AccessImpact of tides and sea-level on deep-sea Arctic methane emissions
This study investigates the effect of changing sea level on deep sea gas emissions in the Arctic. The results show that small decreases in sea-level favors gas release. This implies that sea-level rise may partially counterbalance the effect of warming oceans on gas emissions overall.
- Nabil Sultan
- , Andreia Plaza-Faverola
- & Jochen Knies
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| Open AccessTemperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change
The authors estimate the damages associated with global temperature variability. They find that variability in temperature leads to substantial uncertainty about damages, which imposes costs equivalent to a large fraction of annual consumption today.
- Raphael Calel
- , Sandra C. Chapman
- & Nicholas W. Watkins
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| Open AccessLocal-scale Arctic tundra heterogeneity affects regional-scale carbon dynamics
Carbon stored in the Arctic is threatened by climate change, but models do not capture the local-scale heterogeneity that influences carbon dynamics. Here the authors refine tundra models to account for heterogeneity, finding improved projections and decreased uncertainty in assessing the fate of carbon.
- M. J. Lara
- , A. D. McGuire
- & S. D. Wullschleger
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| Open AccessSummer warming explains widespread but not uniform greening in the Arctic tundra biome
Satellites provide clear evidence of greening trends in the Arctic, but high-resolution pan-Arctic quantification of these trends is lacking. Here the authors analyse high-resolution Landsat data to show widespread greening in the Arctic, and find that greening trends are linked to summer warming overall but not always locally.
- Logan T. Berner
- , Richard Massey
- & Scott J. Goetz
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| Open AccessImpacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability
The intermittency of solar resources is one of the primary challenges for the large-scale integration of the renewable energy. Here Yin et al. used satellite data and climate model outputs to evaluate the geographic patterns of future solar power reliability, highlighting the tradeoff between the maximum potential power and the power reliability.
- Jun Yin
- , Annalisa Molini
- & Amilcare Porporato
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| Open AccessIndia’s potential for integrating solar and on- and offshore wind power into its energy system
India currently relies heavily on fossil-based sources for its power needs. Here the authors show that renewable energy in India could be cheaper than fossil-based alternatives and could reduce CO2 emissions by 85% by 2040.
- Tianguang Lu
- , Peter Sherman
- & Michael McElroy
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Article
| Open AccessForecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events
Extreme events high up in the winter stratosphere are known to influence our weather and their predictability has potential to improve seasonal weather forecasts. Here, the authors examine factors that influence their generation and highlight a previously unrecognised sensitivity to the upper equatorial stratosphere.
- L. J. Gray
- , M. J. Brown
- & J. Anstey
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| Open AccessLow elevation of Svalbard glaciers drives high mass loss variability
Svalbard glaciers are among the lowest ice masses in the Arctic, with a peak in glacier area below 450 m elevation. Using a high-resolution climate model, here the authors show that a modest warming in the mid-1980s propagated meltwater runoff above the glacier area peak, amplifying Svalbard mass loss from all elevations.
- Brice Noël
- , C. L. Jakobs
- & M. R. van den Broeke
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| Open AccessUsing insurance data to quantify the multidimensional impacts of warming temperatures on yield risk
The impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity remain debated. Here, the authors present new evidence for the magnitude and causes of U.S. crop insurance losses, using a database of production risk from 1989–2014 across 1733 counties for corn and 1632 counties for soybeans, and find that crop production risk will increase in response to warmer temperatures.
- Edward D. Perry
- , Jisang Yu
- & Jesse Tack
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| Open AccessMethane emissions from natural gas vehicles in China
The methane emissions from natural gas vehicles (NGVs) are unclear. Here the authors report high methane emissions from heavy-duty NGVs, and by using a scenario analysis show that strictly implementing the upcoming China VI standard could reduce GHG emissions by 509 Mt CO2eq for 2020-2030.
- Da Pan
- , Lei Tao
- & Mark A. Zondlo
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| Open AccessA less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections
The spatial pattern and global mean values of warming differ between different climate models, an issue that needs to be better understood in order to obtain reliable regional projections. Here, the authors show that ice-albedo and water vapor feedbacks are the key processes that are responsible for this inter-model spread.
- Xiaoming Hu
- , Hanjie Fan
- & Song Yang
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| Open AccessRevised estimates of ocean-atmosphere CO2 flux are consistent with ocean carbon inventory
Ocean uptake of carbon dioxide impacts the climate, but flux estimates from surface measurements have not been corrected for temperature differences between surface and water sampling depth. Making that correction, the authors find previous estimates for ocean uptake have been substantially underestimated.
- Andrew J. Watson
- , Ute Schuster
- & Lonneke Goddijn-Murphy