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| Open AccessAccurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks
Three-dimensional deep neural networks can be trained to forecast global weather patterns, including extreme weather, with accuracy greater than or equal to that of the best numerical weather prediction models.
- Kaifeng Bi
- , Lingxi Xie
- & Qi Tian
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Article |
Spin state and deep interior structure of Mars from InSight radio tracking
Analysis of radio science data from the NASA InSight Mars lander reveals details of the rotation of the planet, which have been used to determine fundamental information about its core, mantle and atmosphere.
- Sébastien Le Maistre
- , Attilio Rivoldini
- & W. Bruce Banerdt
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Article |
Vanadium oxide and a sharp onset of cold-trapping on a giant exoplanet
Analysis of transits of an ultra-hot giant exoplanet reports the precise abundance constraints of 14 major refractory elements, showing distinct deviations from proto-solar, along with a sharp transition temperature at which those elements are depleted.
- Stefan Pelletier
- , Björn Benneke
- & Julian Stürmer
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Article
| Open AccessA broadband thermal emission spectrum of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-18b
The dayside thermal emission spectrum and brightness temperature map of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-18b obtained from the NIRISS instrument on the JWST showed water emission features, an atmosphere consistent with solar metallicity, as well as a steep and symmetrical decrease in temperature towards the nightside.
- Louis-Philippe Coulombe
- , Björn Benneke
- & Peter J. Wheatley
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Human-induced weakening of the Northern Hemisphere tropical circulation
Analysis of sea-level pressure measurements shows that, in agreement with the latest suite of climate models, the Hadley circulation has considerably weakened in the Northern Hemisphere over recent decades, driven by anthropogenic emissions.
- Rei Chemke
- & Janni Yuval
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Article
| Open AccessOceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia’s water tower
Weakening blocking effect of the High Mountain Asia on the westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation from the southeast North Atlantic is demonstrated, leading to persistent northward expansion of terrestrial water storage deficit in the Tibet Plateau.
- Qiang Zhang
- , Zexi Shen
- & Gang Wang
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Article
| Open AccessStrong cloud–circulation coupling explains weak trade cumulus feedback
Analysis of new observations from the EUREC4A field campaign shows that lower-tropospheric mixing does not desiccate the base of trade cumulus clouds, refuting the mixing-desiccation hypothesis and explaining the weak trade cumulus feedback.
- Raphaela Vogel
- , Anna Lea Albright
- & Sandrine Bony
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Two annual cycles of the Pacific cold tongue under orbital precession
The Pacific cold tongue is shown to possess two distinct annual cycles with complex interference effects, calling for a reassessment of its seasonal dynamics and re-evaluation of tropical Pacific palaeoclimate records of annual cycle phase changes.
- John C. H. Chiang
- , Alyssa R. Atwood
- & Anthony J. Broccoli
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Article
| Open AccessSurface-to-space atmospheric waves from Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai eruption
The Hunga Tonga eruption represents a natural experiment, being a clearly identifiable near-point source producing gravity waves across a broad range of spatiotemporal and frequency scales, observed by a diverse array of instruments worldwide.
- Corwin J. Wright
- , Neil P. Hindley
- & Jia Yue
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| Open AccessIn situ recording of Mars soundscape
Using data gathered from the microphones of the Perseverance rover, the first characterization of the acoustic environment on Mars is presented, showing two distinct values for the speed of sound in CO2-dominated atmosphere.
- S. Maurice
- , B. Chide
- & P. Willis
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Mechanical forcing of the North American monsoon by orography
The core North American monsoon arises through topographic steering of the jet stream, and should be considered as convection-enhanced orographic rainfall produced by a mechanically forced stationary wave.
- William R. Boos
- & Salvatore Pascale
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Episodic deluges in simulated hothouse climates
Through an idealized set of simulations, with a model that incorporates key physics, research reveals dramatic swings between massive rainfall events and extended dry periods in hothouse climates.
- Jacob T. Seeley
- & Robin D. Wordsworth
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Day–night cloud asymmetry prevents early oceans on Venus but not on Earth
Global climate model simulations of early Venus and Earth show that differences in the cloud regimes prevented ocean formation on Venus but not on Earth.
- Martin Turbet
- , Emeline Bolmont
- & Emmanuel Marcq
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal upper-atmospheric heating on Jupiter by the polar aurorae
High-resolution observations confirm that Jupiter’s global upper atmosphere is heated by transport of energy from the polar aurora.
- J. O’Donoghue
- , L. Moore
- & C. Tao
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The nightside cloud-top circulation of the atmosphere of Venus
Cloud-top thermal images obtained by the Akatsuki orbiter show that Venus has almost null mean meridional circulation at the cloud top, because poleward circulation on the dayside is offset by equatorward circulation on the nightside.
- Kiichi Fukuya
- , Takeshi Imamura
- & Masato Nakamura
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Article
| Open AccessSoil moisture–atmosphere feedback dominates land carbon uptake variability
Factorial climate model simulations show that 90% of the inter-annual variability in global land carbon uptake is driven by soil moisture and its atmospheric feedback on temperature and air humidity.
- Vincent Humphrey
- , Alexis Berg
- & Christian Frankenberg
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A decline in global CFC-11 emissions during 2018−2019
Atmospheric concentration measurements at remote sites around the world reveal an accelerated decline in the global mean CFC-11 concentration during 2018 and 2019, reversing recent trends and building confidence in the timely recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer.
- Stephen A. Montzka
- , Geoffrey S. Dutton
- & Christina Theodoridi
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Slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world
North Atlantic landfalling hurricanes are weakening more slowly than in the past because warming oceans are increasing the moisture carried by the storm until it hits land, and this storm moisture acts as an ongoing heat source post-landfall.
- Lin Li
- & Pinaki Chakraborty
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High sensitivity of tropical precipitation to local sea surface temperature
The response of tropical precipitation to variation in sea surface temperature is stronger than in most climate models, with cool and warm ocean regions linked by strong shallow atmospheric circulations.
- Peter Good
- , Robin Chadwick
- & Stephanie S. Rushley
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Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming
Modelling experiments show that the El Niño response to global warming is self-modulating and depends on its historical variability; if current variability is high, future variability will be low.
- Wenju Cai
- , Benjamin Ng
- & Michael J. McPhaden
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Small lightning flashes from shallow electrical storms on Jupiter
Small lightning flashes detected on Jupiter by Juno have shallow origins above the 2-bar level of Jupiter’s atmosphere where temperatures are too low for liquid water to exist.
- Heidi N. Becker
- , James W. Alexander
- & Paul G. Steffes
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Night-time measurements of astronomical seeing at Dome A in Antarctica
The night-time seeing (the extent to which a star’s light is blurred by the atmosphere) at Dome A, the highest part on the Antarctic plateau, can be as good as 0.13 arcseconds above a height of only 8 metres.
- Bin Ma
- , Zhaohui Shang
- & Peng Jiang
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North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply
Current models are too noisy to predict climate usefully on decadal timescales, but two-stage post-processing of model outputs greatly improves predictions of decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate.
- D. M. Smith
- , A. A. Scaife
- & L. Zhang
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A pause in Southern Hemisphere circulation trends due to the Montreal Protocol
The recovery of stratospheric ozone in the Southern Hemisphere in the wake of the Montreal Protocol is driving a pause in atmospheric circulation trends that warrants closer scrutiny across the Earth system.
- Antara Banerjee
- , John C. Fyfe
- & Kai-Lan Chang
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Letter |
Deep learning for multi-year ENSO forecasts
A statistical forecast model using a deep-learning approach produces useful forecasts of El Niño/Southern Oscillation events with lead times of up to one and a half years.
- Yoo-Geun Ham
- , Jeong-Hwan Kim
- & Jing-Jia Luo
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Letter |
Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years
Comparisons between past regional drivers of precipitation extremes found time series data from Lake Ohrid and modern climate models of the Mediterranean may help to reduce simulation uncertainties in predictions of the Mediterranean climate.
- Bernd Wagner
- , Hendrik Vogel
- & Xiaosen Zhang
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Letter |
Increased shear in the North Atlantic upper-level jet stream over the past four decades
The North Atlantic jet stream has become 15 per cent more sheared in the upper atmosphere since 1979, an expected consequence of climate change, and consistent with increased aircraft turbulence.
- Simon H. Lee
- , Paul D. Williams
- & Thomas H. A. Frame
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Antarctic offshore polynyas linked to Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies
Measurements collected during recent polynya events in the Southern Ocean reveal that these sea ice openings formed as a result of weakened stratification and severe storms and were sustained by deep overturning.
- Ethan C. Campbell
- , Earle A. Wilson
- & Lynne D. Talley
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Letter |
Needle-like structures discovered on positively charged lightning branches
Radio interferometric observations of lightning over the Netherlands reveal small needle-shaped plasma structures associated with the positive leader channels, explaining why cloud-to-ground lightning connects to the ground multiple times.
- B. M. Hare
- , O. Scholten
- & P. Zucca
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Letter |
Complex networks reveal global pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections
Complex networks are used to analyse global-scale teleconnections between extreme-rainfall events, revealing a peak in the distance distribution of statistically significant connections at around 10,000 kilometres.
- Niklas Boers
- , Bedartha Goswami
- & Jürgen Kurths
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Letter |
Abrupt ice-age shifts in southern westerly winds and Antarctic climate forced from the north
The position of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds responds immediately to abrupt North Atlantic climate events of the last ice age, with a spatially heterogeneous impact on Antarctic climate.
- Christo Buizert
- , Michael Sigl
- & Eric J. Steig
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Review Article |
El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity
Our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon is reviewed and a unifying framework that identifies the key factors for this complexity is proposed.
- Axel Timmermann
- , Soon-Il An
- & Xuebin Zhang
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Letter |
Prevalent lightning sferics at 600 megahertz near Jupiter’s poles
Observations of broadband emission from lightning on Jupiter at 600 megahertz show a lightning discharge mechanism similar to that of terrestrial lightning and indicate increased moist convection near Jupiter’s poles.
- Shannon Brown
- , Michael Janssen
- & John Connerney
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Letter |
An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11
Atmospheric CFC-11 concentrations have been declining less rapidly since 2012; evidence suggests that this finding is explained by an increase in the emission of CFC-11during these years.
- Stephen A. Montzka
- , Geoff S. Dutton
- & James W. Elkins
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Letter |
A suppression of differential rotation in Jupiter’s deep interior
The determination of Jupiter’s even gravitational moments by the Juno spacecraft reveals that more than three thousand kilometres below the cloud tops, differential rotation is suppressed and the gas giant’s interior rotates as a solid body.
- T. Guillot
- , Y. Miguel
- & S. J. Bolton
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Letter |
Jupiter’s atmospheric jet streams extend thousands of kilometres deep
The determination of Jupiter’s odd gravitational harmonics by the Juno spacecraft reveals that the observed jet streams extend to about three thousand kilometres below the cloud tops.
- Y. Kaspi
- , E. Galanti
- & S. M. Wahl
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Letter |
Clusters of cyclones encircling Jupiter’s poles
Visible and infrared images obtained from above each pole of Jupiter by the Juno spacecraft reveal polygonal patterns of large cyclones; it is unknown how these cyclones evolved, or how they persist without merging.
- A. Adriani
- , A. Mura
- & M. Amoroso
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Letter |
Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene
Temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four between the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene epoch, as a result of changes in the meridional temperature gradient.
- Kira Rehfeld
- , Thomas Münch
- & Thomas Laepple
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Letter |
Southern Hemisphere climate variability forced by Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet topography
An Antarctic ice core reveals that, during the last ice age, the topography of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets shifted tropical Pacific convection eastward, increasing climate variability in the high southern latitudes.
- T. R. Jones
- , W. H. G. Roberts
- & J. W. C. White
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Review Article |
Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer
An overview of the nature and timescales of stratospheric ozone recovery and the extent to which it can currently be detected.
- Martyn P. Chipperfield
- , Slimane Bekki
- & Mark Weber
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Letter |
Penitentes as the origin of the bladed terrain of Tartarus Dorsa on Pluto
Simulations of Pluto suggest that the sharp ridges in the Tartarus Dorsa region of Pluto are penitentes that formed over the past tens of millions of years.
- John E. Moores
- , Christina L. Smith
- & Scott D. Guzewich
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Letter |
Heating of Jupiter’s upper atmosphere above the Great Red Spot
The upper atmosphere above Jupiter’s Great Red Spot—the largest storm in the Solar System—is hundreds of degrees hotter than anywhere else on the planet; the heating must come from below, suggesting coupling between Jupiter’s lower and upper atmospheres, probably the result of upwardly propagating acoustic or gravity waves.
- J. O’Donoghue
- , L. Moore
- & H. Melin
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Letter |
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability
Here it is shown that the late twentieth century warming trends in the Antarctic Peninsula have ceased, with the Peninsula having instead been cooling for most of the twenty-first century, underscoring the considerable internal variability within the Antarctic climate system.
- John Turner
- , Hua Lu
- & Pranab Deb
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Letter |
Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record
Satellite records show that the global pattern of cloud changes between the 1980s and the 2000s are similar to the patterns predicted by models of climate with recent external radiative forcing, and that the primary drivers of the cloud changes appear to be increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and a recovery from volcanic radiative cooling.
- Joel R. Norris
- , Robert J. Allen
- & Stephen A. Klein
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Letter |
An irradiated brown-dwarf companion to an accreting white dwarf
Spectroscopic detection and characterization of an irradiated substellar donor planet in an accreting white-dwarf binary system reveals a donor mass of 0.055 ± 0.008 solar masses, an average spectral type of L1 ± 1 and an average irradiation-induced temperature difference between the dayside and nightside of 57 kelvin.
- Juan V. Hernández Santisteban
- , Christian Knigge
- & Peter H. Hauschildt
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Brief Communications Arising |
El Niño and intense tropical cyclones
- Il-Ju Moon
- , Sung-Hun Kim
- & Chunzai Wang
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Review Article |
The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction
The cumulative progress of numerical weather prediction represents one of the most remarkable successes of modern science; here the many technological and scientific advances that have brought NWP to its present level are reviewed, as are the considerable challenges for the future.
- Peter Bauer
- , Alan Thorpe
- & Gilbert Brunet