Research articles

Projections of future climate do not typically include the effects of volcanic activity. By incorporating a range of volcanic futures into a coupled model, it is shown that volcanic forcing has quantifiable impacts on the time at which anthropogenic signatures emerge across various climate metrics.

Climate models typically predict an increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall with anthropogenic warming. Correcting for precipitation biases in the tropical western Pacific using an emergent constraint methodology, however, reduces the magnitude of these increases by ∼50%.

The selection of materials for road construction in the United States is based on assumptions of a stationary climate. With increasing temperatures, upholding these practices could add up to US$26.3 billion in US-wide maintenance costs by 2040 under RCP8.5.

To understand how species will cope with warming, knowledge of the thermal limits is needed. This study estimates 2,960 ray-fin fish species’ thermal sensitivity. Comparison with projected warming highlights vulnerable freshwater and marine regions.

The southern pine beetle is projected to be able to expand into vast areas of the northeastern US and southeastern Canada by 2050 posing risks to forest structure, biodiversity and associated ecosystem services.

Warming of surface ocean waters is well known, but how the subsurface waters are changing is less clear. This study shows that subtropical mode water in the North Atlantic and North Pacific is warming at twice the rate of the surface waters.

A warmer climate is generally expected to favour smaller organisms and steeper body-mass–abundance scaling through food webs. Results from across a stream temperature gradient now show that this effect can be offset by increasing nutrient supply.

Even if fossil-fuel emissions were to cease immediately, continued anthropogenic warming is expected. Here, observation-based estimates indicate there is a 13% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5 K Paris target.

Using a fully statistical approach, the paper shows that the most likely range of cumulative CO₂ emissions includes the IPCC’s two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. Carbon intensity reduction should accelerate to achieve the 1.5 °C warming target.

Managing future flood risk is necessary to minimize costs and achieve maximum benefit from investment. This study presents a framework to assess urban structural protection under climate change and socio-economic development.

The effect of ozone and fine particulate matter on human health is dependent on emissions and climate change. Here the effects of climate change on air pollution mortality are isolated, with increases predicted in all regions except Africa.

In order to meet internationally agreed temperature limits, it is important to have a defined baseline. This study shows for low-emission scenarios the likelihood and timing of exceedance are highly dependent on the baseline, as are allowable carbon emissions.

CMIP5 simulations reveal that the frequency of extreme El Niño events doubles under the 1.5 °C Paris target, and continues to increase long after global temperatures stabilize due to emission reductions. Extreme La Niña events, however, see little change at either 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming.

Analysis synthesizing 49 tracking studies shows that flexibility in the major determinant of migration duration is insufficient to adjust to ongoing climate change, and is unlikely to explain many of the changes in arrival timing already observed.

The footprint of oil typically considers combustion emissions, neglecting extraction emissions. This study shows that production declines with depletion for 25 significant oil fields, whilst emissions increase through greater energy expenditure.

Weather regimes drive variability in wind-power generation across Europe, affecting energy security. Strategically deployed wind turbines in regions of contrasting weather regime behaviour can be used to balance wind capacity and minimize output variability.

A large proportion of European alpine plants are able to spread upslope faster than current climate velocities. Nevertheless, invasive species tend to be particularly effective dispersers, making them an additional pressure on the vulnerable native flora.

Methane fluxes from thawing peatlands in northern Canada were derived predominantly from anaerobic decomposition of recent vegetation rather than from previously frozen material — as is typically assumed.

The acceleration of sea-level rise continues, but this has not been clear in the short altimeter record. This study closes the sea-level rise budget for 1993–2014 and illustrates the increased contribution from the Greenland ice sheet.

Climatic conditions that challenge human thermoregulatory capacity currently affect around a quarter of the world’s population annually. Such conditions are projected to increase in line with CO₂ emissions particularly in the humid tropics.