Research articles

In recent years there has been a slowdown in sea-level rise, along with the slowdown in global surface temperatures. This study analyses sea-level data to separate long-term natural variability from anthropogenic influence on sea level. They find that correcting for natural variability shows recent sea-level rise has not slowed compared with earlier periods.

Information about vulnerability to changes in temperature at the local level would improve the assessment of health risks created by climate change. Research now uses geo-coded data and spatial methods to quantify the effects of warm temperature on mortality for all districts in England and Wales. Mortality risk increases in southern districts by over 10% for a temperature increase of 1 °C, whereas northern districts are not significantly affected.

Understanding how climate change will impact whole ecosystems, rather than single species within them, remains challenging. Now, research into the direct and indirect impacts of climate on the functioning of Arctic terrestrial ecosystems reveals effects on tundra primary production, food-web structure and the strength of species interaction.

It is widely recognized that cities must play a leading role in efforts to mitigate climate change. Building on previous inventory work, this study looks at options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from major cities around the world. The strategies identified reflect the unique characteristics of different cities, such as their climate, industry, urbanized density and electricity supply.

Large parts of the circumpolar Arctic are grazed by reindeer but the effects of grazing pressure on ecological responses to climate change, and the associated climate feedbacks, remain unclear. Now, research using a long-term environmental manipulation experiment finds that although warming decreased the carbon sink of tundra experiencing light grazing pressure, it had no effect on tundra under high grazing pressure.

A comprehensive summary of studies that simulate climate change impacts on agriculture are now reported in a meta-analysis. Findings suggest that, without measures to adapt to changing conditions, aggregate yield losses should be expected for wheat, rice and maize in temperate and tropical growing regions even under relatively moderate levels of local warming.

Understanding how sensitive the climate is to different forcings is essential for projecting change. Analysis of results from climate model intercomparison projects shows that the climate has a greater sensitivity to aerosols and ozone compared with CO₂. This result means that the low-range projections of climate response to CO₂, <1.3 °C, are unlikely.

Large ocean waves are predominantly caused by winds associated with extratropical cyclones. However, these winds are poorly represented in current global climate models, making wave projection difficult. A statistical study of large wave occurence in eastern Australia is applied to different climate models, allowing conclusions to be drawn about anthropogenic influence and improving wave projections.

Anthropogenic influence, due to greenhouse gases and aerosols, on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones is not well known. In this study, aerosols are shown to delay development, weaken intensity and cause early dissipation of storms, but also to increase precipitation across an enlarged rainband.

An assessment of economic flood risk trends across Europe reveals high current and future stress on risk financing schemes. The magnitude and distribution of losses can be contained by investing in flood protection, increasing insurance coverage or by expanding public compensation funds. However, these climate change adaptation instruments have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications. Moreover, the spatial variation in disaster risk can necessitate cross-subsidies between individual countries in the European Union.

The Southern Ocean is a major site of open-ocean deep convection. Using observational data and model simulations, it is found that surface waters have freshened since the 1950s and deep convection has weakened, and could cease, as a result of the freshening. This has implications for bottom-water formation, ocean heat and carbon storage.

Although many species-level responses to climate warming have been documented, understanding of ecosystem-level stability under warming remains low. Now, a study using meta-analyses of temperature effects on metabolic rates, reeding rates and population sizes along with a mechanistic predator–prey model finds that warming stabilizes predator–prey dynamics but risks predator starvation.

Climate change could be a game-changer for biodiversity conservation, potentially invalidating many established methods including those employed in vulnerability assessments. Now, a simulation study finds that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using measurable spatial and demographic variables. Interestingly, most of those variables identified as important are already used in species conservation assessment.

Damage from hurricanes is increasing in many coastal regions worldwide. Research now shows that large wind-turbine arrays can significantly diminish peak near-surface hurricane wind speeds and storm surge. The net cost of turbine arrays is less than that of today’s fossil-fuel electricity generation and also than that of sea walls used to avoid storm-surge damage.

The use of models for the prediction of future climate conditions is commonplace. This study investigates regional sea surface temperature biases across 22 climate models and finds that they are linked to the large circulation system in the Atlantic Ocean. Improvements to climate models will need to consider the impact of remote biases on regional processes.

Recent reports suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to decrease winter mortality in temperature countries as winters warm. Research now finds that the link between winter temperatures and excess winter deaths in England and Wales, over the period 1951–2011, is significant only until the mid 1970s, other factors explaining any variation in excess winter mortality since then.

The future sustainability of global fisheries is unknown. Models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change are applied to 67 national exclusive economic zones, which cover 60% of global fishery catches. This allows prediction of climate change impacts on countries with different dependencies on fisheries.

Economic development improves the conditions of human life, but at a cost to the natural environment. Research now estimates the relationship between economic development and the carbon intensity of human well-being—the ratio of anthropogenic carbon emissions to average life expectancy at birth—globally, over 40 years. Most of the countries studied, including African nations over recent decades, followed unsustainable paths of development.

Evidence on the relationship between human migration and climatic events is limited. Now research links information from a longitudinal survey in rural Pakistan to satellite-derived measures of climate variability. Results show that heat stress consistently increases the long-term migration of men owing to impacts on income.

The prioritization of protected areas to maximize biodiversity conservation and land-use based climate change mitigation is an important policy and research issue. Now a study identifies corridors that would maintain habitat connectivity while also preserving the areas of highest biomass between protected areas in the tropics.