Articles in 2022

A reliable and consistent inventory is important for the international community to track and promote the progress of climate finance. A machine learning classifier reveals that the current framework may overestimate the actual number of bilateral climate finance projects.

More cities are including urban forests in their climate change adaptation plans. Now, research shows that more than two-thirds of tree species across cities worldwide are facing severe climate risks, undermining their roles in climate adaptation and other ecosystem services they provide.

Assessing 3,129 species of trees and shrubs found in 164 global urban areas shows that over half of the species currently experience non-ideal climates. They project increases in risk due to climate change by 2050 and highlight cities where all species are at risk.

Even if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are reduced to pre-industrial levels, the climate system might not return to its previous state. Quantification of the spatial patterns of climate hysteresis and reversibility reveals globally widespread irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation in response to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions.

Infrastructure investment needs to account for climate change globally, yet most day-to-day projects are small and poorly served by economic assessment processes. Four simple adjustments to cost–benefit analysis practices would greatly improve decision making for future infrastructure resilience.

The authors use long-term ground and satellite data to reveal the impact of drought on autumn date of foliar senescence (DFS). They link increased drought impacts to precipitation changes and plant functional traits and project earlier DFS by the end of the century, particularly at high latitudes.

The impact of climate change on tropical Atlantic variability has been elusive, partly due to regional biases in climate models. Now, research shows that current models predict a robust weakening of sea surface temperature variance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, with repercussions for precipitation and climate in the area and beyond.

Credibility is the cornerstone of international climate pledges; meanwhile, ambition is essential to reach the temperature targets. Research shows the flexibility of Paris agreements encourages countries to be ambitious yet maintain credible.

There has been a series of announcements related to climate legislation from the United States of America in recent months. This shift to climate action in the United States sparks hope that its actions could encourage other countries to step up.

Forward-looking information about climate risks is critical for decision makers, but the provision and accuracy of such information is limited. Innovative prediction-market designs could provide a mechanism to enhance applied climate research in an incentive-compatible way.

The Atlantic Niño is an important mode of tropical climate variability, but how it reacts to climate change is not well known due to model biases. Here the authors show a robust weakening of the Atlantic Niño of up to 24–48% under high emissions until the end of the century.

The Atlantic Niño/Niña is an important mode of tropical climate variability, but how it changes with global warming is not clear. Here the authors use a comprehensive model ensemble to show that the Atlantic Niño/Niña system will probably weaken under greenhouse warming.

The success of international climate cooperation relies on whether national commitments are believable under the Paris Agreement. Based on the survey with experienced climate policy professionals, the authors explore the determinants of credibility of national commitments.

For some parts of the climate system, the response to declining CO₂ concentrations does not mirror that during the preceding increase. Here the authors quantify this effect for temperature and precipitation, and show that large areas of the world show an asymmetric response to CO₂ forcing.

Tree swallows are becoming smaller in response to climate change, but this isn’t driven by reduced growth as chicks. The overall picture is much more complicated, with climate effects impacting adults, juveniles, males and females differently.

Time is short to secure a liveable and sustainable future; yet, inaction from governments, industry and civil society is setting the course for 3.2 °C of warming, with all the cascading and catastrophic consequences that this implies. In this context, when does civil disobedience by scientists become justified?