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Estimates of N2O emissions are important given its role as a GHG. Atmospheric inversions indicate emissions increased over the past decade at a rate 2.5 times that estimated using the IPCC default method, and the emissions response to N-input is larger than linear when N-input is high.
In the US, 99.8% of the 459 endangered animals are susceptible to at least one climate change sensitivity factor. Yet analysis of official documents (1973–2018) shows this risk does not translate into action: only 64% of species are considered threatened by climate change, and management planned for 18%.
Natural peatlands accumulate carbon but land-use change and drainage leads to emission of GHGs from peatlands. Loss of natural peatland area globally has shifted the peatland biome from a sink to a source of carbon, but restoration of drained peatlands could make them carbon neutral.
The reflectivity of the Arctic Ocean decreases as sea ice decreases, creating a feedback of more heat absorption, warming and further melt. An ensemble of models is used to gain understanding of this in the current climate to constrain the intermodel spread in predictions of sea-ice albedo changes.
Nitrous oxide, a strong GHG, is produced during nitrification. Changes in ocean pH cause its production to increase, relative to nitrification rates, suggesting large potential increases in the future as ocean acidification continues.
In this Perspective, the authors argue that defining the climate change problem as one of decarbonization rather than emissions reduction suggests a new guiding metaphor — the global fractal — which may be a more productive conceptualization for research and policy than the global commons.
Rising sea level is a principal threat to coastal systems worldwide — but far from being a simple matter of landscapes doomed to drown, the story involves complex feedbacks with the same processes that threaten them. Now a modelling study shows that the size and shape of tidal estuaries may determine their fate — proffering a perspective for mitigation against future sea-level rise.
Small shallow estuaries face enhanced flood risk under climate change because of sea-level-rise-induced tidal amplification. In contrast, large deep estuaries are threatened by sediment starvation and therefore a loss of intertidal area. Both cases can potentially be mitigated by estuary widening.
Permafrost thaw due to rising temperatures will impact soil hydrology in the Arctic. Abrupt changes in soil moisture and land–atmosphere processes may alter the bearing capacity of soil and increase susceptibility to wildfires, with consequences for adapting engineering systems in the region.
Observations reveal recent Arctic warming, but future societal impacts are poorly understood. Now research identifies potential abrupt thaw-driven soil moisture shifts, with consequences for northern development including more intense wildfires and rainfall.
The broad-scale impacts and mechanisms of physical climate change are scientifically well-understood, but specific estimates of these impacts are associated with uncertainty that is challenging to communicate. How scientists communicate uncertainty affects public trust and acceptance of the research.
Increasingly, financial institutions will be exposed to climate risks that will exacerbate the negative economic impacts of climate change. An agent-based integrated assessment model is used to analyse climate impacts on the global banking system, finding an increase in banking crises and public bailout costs.
Future emissions scenarios for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report should explore the carbon budget space in a systematic manner, which would be robust to the updates of latest climate science, so that policy implications can be adequately assessed.
Ecosystem response to climate change will vary in amplitude and dynamically, which may not be captured in current experimental design. This Perspective presents experimental design improvements to better predict responses and thus facilitate understanding of future impacts.
The effects of global warming are felt earlier in Arctic regions than elsewhere in the world. Now research shows that Arctic marine food webs can adapt to climate change — but the study authors warn that this impression of resilience may be false in the long term.
