Letters in 2016

Results from four integrated assessment models show countries’ efforts to cut emissions fall towards the lower end of the social cost of carbon distribution, suggesting insufficient levels of ambition to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

China’s ‘Grain for Green’ revegetation programme has potential to help mitigate climate change. However, the increased water demand in the Loess Plateau is approaching a level that will impact on water availability to meet human demand.

Ocean acidification impairs reef fish behaviour. This study shows offspring of spiny damselfish sensitive to high CO₂ levels have different brain molecular responses to those of tolerant individuals, suggesting individual variation may allow adaptation.

The importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been hotly debated. Research based on ten years of field observations and a model that simulates village-scale transmission for West Africa suggests that we should not be overly concerned.

Mortality rates based on data representing 400 million people in 200 European regions show countries other than the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium remain exposed to increased mortality due to winter temperature fluctuations.

Energy budget and climate model estimates of transient climate response match when model output is processed in the same manner as an observational record. Removal of observational sampling biases infers an estimate of 1.66 °C, consistent with model estimates.

Historically the sea surface temperature of the tropical oceans has influenced Sahel rainfall. This study shows that increased surface temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea have driven recent rainfall increases.

Observed northern extratropical land greening is consistent with anthropogenic forcings, where greenhouse gases play a dominant role, but not with simulations that include only natural forcings and internal climate variability.

The global warming slowdown has been attributed to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Modelling work simulates this negative phase in response to anthropogenic aerosols, indicating that external forcings may influence natural cycles.

The process of breeding, delivery and adoption of new maize varieties can take 30 years. Projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize development cycle suggests the need for immediate development to prevent yield losses.

A meta-analysis of soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone suggests that thawing under aerobic conditions, which releases CO₂, will strengthen the permafrost carbon feedback more than waterlogged systems, which releases CO₂ and CH₄.

Tendencies towards climate-change-induced continental drying, as characterized by offline-computed runoff and other potential-evapotranspiration-dependent metrics, may be artefactual. Consequently they may be much weaker and less extensive than previously thought.

This study shows how failure to capture system dynamics can be detected in climate model predictions. This information should improve model projections and facilitate better decision-making.

Businesses are increasingly undertaking initiatives that increase profit and provide environmental benefits. They risk backlash, however, as people are shown to respond negatively to the notion of a business profiting from such initiatives.

Long-term model simulations show that a linear relationship between atmospheric warming and cumulative CO₂ emissions holds up to 5 trillion tonnes of carbon (EgC), the estimated total fossil fuel resource in the absence of mitigation efforts.

Aridity is expected to increase globally in a warmer world. Research now suggests that this is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and plant responses to increased atmospheric CO₂.

A 20-year grassland experiment shows links between plant functional traits and the climate. Species favoured by extended growing seasons have taller canopies and faster assimilation rates, at the expense of those with high leaf-tissue investment.

Droughts are intensifying under climate change. Research into the resilience of stream food webs to drought now shows that ‘rewiring’ of food web structure in the face of species losses helps to buffer changes to the overall network structure.

Many campaigns to get people to purchase sustainable products highlight self-interest. However, experiments now show that emphasizing the environmental benefit of such goods may be more effective.

Public understanding of climate change is well researched, but little is known about public perceptions of ocean acidification. New survey data shows that public awareness of ocean acidification in Great Britain is low compared to that of climate change.