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Recent observations of Earth's energy budget indicate low climate sensitivity. Research now shows that these estimates should be revised upward, resolving an apparent mismatch with climate models and implying a warmer future.
Energy budget and climate model estimates of transient climate response match when model output is processed in the same manner as an observational record. Removal of observational sampling biases infers an estimate of 1.66 °C, consistent with model estimates.
Historically the sea surface temperature of the tropical oceans has influenced Sahel rainfall. This study shows that increased surface temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea have driven recent rainfall increases.
The North America winter cooling trend in the early 2000s can be explained by decadal climate signals. For the northwest, fluctuations in the remote tropical Pacific were responsible, whereas for central North America it was mid-latitude circulation changes.
Observed northern extratropical land greening is consistent with anthropogenic forcings, where greenhouse gases play a dominant role, but not with simulations that include only natural forcings and internal climate variability.
Climate change could cost the world trillions of dollars every year. But at the moment, no one is required to pay for this damage, even if it is arguably their fault. That is where the world's courts come in.
Weather is unpredictable and storms such as those seen in June have always occurred. Now climate change, in the form of sea-level rise, is increasing the risk of damage along the coasts and has implications for insurance and preparedness.
The success of the Paris Agreement relies on a system of 'pledge and review', and the power of shaming laggards. This puts much of the burden for holding countries accountable on civil society.
Indonesian peatlands need to be protected and restored to prevent fires and the health, environmental and economic impact that they have on the wider region.
The Paris Agreement duly reflects the latest scientific understanding of systemic global warming risks. Limiting the anthropogenic temperature anomaly to 1.5–2 °C is possible, yet requires transformational change across the board of modernity.
A long-term goal for climate policy can only be agreed through political processes, but science can inform these through mapping policy choices and the risks they create. Recommendations for the practical use of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report are provided.
The global warming slowdown has been attributed to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Modelling work simulates this negative phase in response to anthropogenic aerosols, indicating that external forcings may influence natural cycles.
The process of breeding, delivery and adoption of new maize varieties can take 30 years. Projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize development cycle suggests the need for immediate development to prevent yield losses.
