Articles in 2013

The political opportunities for implementing a carbon tax high enough to induce large emission cuts will be better if at first the tax is charged on the difference between emissions and fixed thresholds, rather than on all emissions as is now practised.

Stopping anthropogenic carbon emissions will not result in a sudden decrease in temperature. Earth system models are used to show that there may be an increase in warming after an initial decrease. This is a result of feedbacks from decreased ocean heat uptake, which exceed the cooling from decreased atmospheric CO₂.

This Perspective considers the extent to which early action to reduce emissions of short-lived climate pollutants, such as methane and black carbon, would help to limit global warming. Although decreasing emissions of these pollutants would have short-term benefits, simultaneous CO₂ reductions are urgently required to mitigate the risk of dangerous climate change in the longer term.

Recent reports of a lower climate sensitivity to CO₂ emissions have been used to suggest that the need for mitigation is not as urgent as previously thought. This Perspective investigates how quickly committed peak warming would increase ifmitigation is delayed. Peak warming is found to increase in line with cumulative CO₂ emissions, faster than current observed warming.

There are large uncertainties associated with the projection of climate extremes. This study shows that the uncertainties are mainly due to internal climate variability. However, model projections are consistent when averaged across regions, allowing robust projection of future extremes.

The water chemistry in reef systems can be significantly different from that of the open ocean. Now research based on observations from Bermuda shows that the responses of coral reef communities to ocean acidification could partially offset changes in seawater pH and aragonite saturation.

Predicting species’ chances of survival under climate change requires an understanding of their adaptive potential. Now research into hybridization—one mechanism that could facilitate adaptation—shows that species of the plant genus Pachycladon that survived the Last Glacial Maximum benefited from the transfer of genetic information through hybridization.

Will networks of protected areas remain effective as the climate changes? Research into the response of bird populations to climate variance and change attempts to shed light on this issue. Results suggest that despite projected declines in many of the species investigated, most sites that are designated as EU Special Protection Areas in the UK can be expected to retain their conservation value and legal status.

Loss and damage is a relative newcomer to the climate change agenda. It has the potential to reinvigorate existing mitigation and adaptation efforts, but this will ultimately require leadership from developed countries and enhanced understanding of several key issues, such as limits to adaptation.

Phytoplankton drive productivity in the global ocean, but are sensitive to changes in temperature. Research now demonstrates how phytoplankton cells respond to an increase in seawater temperature and uses this knowledge to predict the resultant impacts on global marine biogeochemistry.

A small but growing number of companies are addressing climate risks; however, a range of barriers limit wider private-sector adaptation efforts, particularly in developing countries.

With the promise of natural and shale gas for the power sector, the oil-chained transport sector remains climate policymakers' biggest headache. Within transport, the emergence of different types of fuel is itself a big issue, as Sonja van Renssen explains.