Articles in 2023

Aviation contributes to global emissions, yet the sector is lagging behind in decarbonization efforts. A combination of technology alongside societal change could provide a path to emission reductions.

Modelled low-carbon pathways rarely incorporate processes reflecting social and political realities. Now two studies rise to this challenge by exploring the implications of a landmark initiative to phase out coal, showing that we need greater political ambition for faster transitions to keep a 1.5 °C outcome in sight.

While important, coal power phase-out in models may be faster than is socio-politically feasible in highly coal-dependent countries. This research shows that reaching the temperature target with these constraints requires faster decline in emissions from the global North and in global oil and gas production.

Precipitation and temperature affect biomass and carbon storage in the tropics. This study shows that warming-driven contraction of humid regions and expansion of areas with dry periods could double carbon losses, with about one-third associated with decline of humid areas in South America.

During the winter season, Arctic sea ice recovers from summer melt, but this winter sea-ice growth has weakened over recent decades. Here the authors show that atmospheric rivers reach the Arctic more frequently with warming, which in turn slows down the seasonal recovery of sea ice.

An EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels would lead to a rapid decrease in fossil fuel combustion, GHG emissions reductions and potential economic losses. This analysis quantifies such effects, while also demonstrating how demand-side responses would impact the shock.

Coal phase-out is an irreplaceable part of the overall mitigation effort and bottom-up momentum has emerged to accelerate the process. With a new approach considering political feasibility, this research shows the potential spillover risks that may undermine the sectoral actions.

With increasing river flooding risk caused by climate and socioeconomic changes, different adaptation strategies can help to improve the resilience to the threat. This Analysis compares four major options, then examines the potential benefits and costs across Europe under different scenarios.

Hybrid populations have long been perceived as a threat to distinct lineages and undervalued from a conservation perspective. Now, research suggests that hybrid populations may harbour gene combinations that improve their ability to cope with changing climate conditions.

Temperature affects both erosion and carbon cycling in the soil. Research now shows that under warming, the replacement of soil organic carbon lost by erosion increases but the preservation of deposited carbon decreases, with an overall rise in the cropland carbon sink.

Oceanic eastern boundary currents are regions with strong upwelling, which is expected to intensify with global warming through enhanced winds. Here the authors show that geostrophic flow dominates over wind effects on long-term upwelling changes for the major eastern boundary upwelling systems.

The authors demonstrate the interacting impacts of warming on erosion and soil organic carbon (SOC) cycling. Under warming, they project increased replacement of SOC lost by erosion but lower preservation of deposited SOC, with an overall increase in the global C sink by erosion.

The authors estimate genomic vulnerability for closely related species of rainbowfish. They find that narrow endemic species that have hybridized with a warm-adapted generalist show reduced vulnerability to climate change and that hybridization may facilitate evolutionary rescue for such species.

The transition to net-zero emissions will be contested and could lead to political polarization and social unrest. To contribute to a transition that is accepted as legitimate while remaining effective, research on public support must evolve rapidly along several dimensions.

Floating ice shelves that fringe Antarctica are at risk from warming ocean water and from above by warming air. Work now reveals that snow accumulation on ice shelves can minimize surface melt and ponding, but that future atmospheric warming will likely overpower this protection that snow provides, leaving ice shelves vulnerable to collapse.

Melt ponding is an important process for the stability of ice shelves. Here the authors estimate the temperature thresholds at which melt ponding emerges over Antarctic ice shelves and find that cold and dry ice shelves are more vulnerable to melt ponding than expected.

Statistical analysis of a climate institutions dataset has identified four national models of climate governance used across countries with high emissions. These models are associated with the climate policy ambition and performance of each country. This analysis reveals that the effectiveness of climate policymaking could be strengthened by building climate institutions.

National climate institutions could greatly impact the process of policy design and implementation. This analysis identifies four models of climate governance for major emitters, estimates their policy ambitions and performance, then shows how they are related to macro features.

A changing climate is altering vegetation phenology and probably impacts drought frequency and severity. Changes in vegetation phenology have some unexpected consequences on the trajectories of drought recovery.

The authors reveal complex drought recovery responses to phenology shifts, in that early spring can shorten or lengthen recovery, while delayed spring following drought events delays it. These effects suggest a need to incorporate phenology aspects into resilience models.