Articles in 2020

Flash droughts, which develop over the course of weeks, are difficult to forecast given the current state of subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. This Perspective offers operational and research definitions, places them in the broader context of climate and suggests avenues for future research.

Erosion is a major problem facing sandy beaches that will probably worsen with climate change and sea-level rise. Half the world’s beaches, many of which are in densely populated areas, could disappear by the end of the century under current trends; mitigation could lessen retreat by 40%.

Much of Australia has been in severe drought since at least 2017. Here we link Australian droughts to the absence of Pacific and Indian Ocean mode states that act as key drivers of drought-breaking rains. Predicting the impact of climate change on drought requires accurate modelling of these modes of variability.

The bushfires burning in Australia have led to widespread local and global calls for increased efforts to mitigate climate change.

To improve climate resilience for extreme fire events, researchers need to translate modelling uncertainties into useful guidance and be wary of overconfidence. If Earth system models do not capture the severity of recent Australian wildfires, development is urgently needed to assess whether we are underestimating fire risk.

Catastrophic fires have generated intensified public responses in favour of transformative climate change action. Realizing the potential of this moment requires us to understand and puncture the cultural and emotional politics of our collective denial.

Researchers are more accustomed to writing about climate change than adapting their work to it. But as climate change impacts on the research sector become more evident, rapid adaptation is needed.

Ocean fronts and other hydrographic features are important for climate and ecology. This Review discussed fronts in the Southern Ocean, their detection and response to climate change, alongside the implications for studying the biology of the region.

Exceptionally warm years in 2017–2019 have caused changes in the physical and biological characteristics of the Pacific Arctic Ocean. What these changes mean for the ecosystem and societal consequences will depend on if they are evidence of a transformation or anomalies in the system.

Temperature affects the metabolic rates of species, their feeding interactions and their ability to persist in a given environment. Now research suggests that different effects of temperature on consumers and resources could cause food webs in cold climates to become less vulnerable to species loss, whereas tropical communities may be more vulnerable as temperatures climb.

Atmospheric aerosols have probably masked a significant portion of the greenhouse-gas-induced warming so far. Research now shows that this also may have masked some of the world’s increasing economic inequality.

Climate change has led to earlier spring leaf-out in northern temperate and boreal regions. This advanced leaf-out causes warming in the Northern Hemisphere due to the combined effects of water vapour, cloud and snow-albedo feedbacks on the surface energy budget.

Global warming will affect food-web structure and species persistence, and real world data is needed for better prediction. Combining species counts and temperature data from rock pools with dynamic modelling predicts biodiversity increases in arctic to temperate regions and declines in the tropics.

Anthropogenic aerosols mask some greenhouse warming via radiation scattering and cloud interactions. Research suggests the economic impact of this aerosol-induced cooling was small globally, although it benefitted developing countries in warm climates and harmed high-latitude developed countries.

North Pacific mode water controls extratropical-to-tropical heat and mass exchange. Analysis and model simulations show that decadal temperature variations in this subtropical North West Pacific water mass are forced remotely by Atlantic Multidecadal Variability.

Earth’s energy imbalance from human and natural drivers—effective radiative forcing—is difficult to constrain, contributing to uncertainty in long-term climate change. A top-down observational constraint reduces IPCC AR5 assessed uncertainty by nearly 40% and suggests models are biased low.

Individual responses to climate hazards can contribute to long-term societal resilience. This Review finds that the literature emphasizes intrapersonal cognitive and affective drivers of adaptation behaviour rather than the interpersonal social factors that promote coordinated cooperative action.

Intergenerational inheritance of traits in corals can help species survive environmental change. Examination of intergenerational DNA methylation profiles in a reef-building coral shows there to be genome-wide inheritance, with the potential for adaptive capacity to environmental stressors.