Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Urban dynamics through the lens of human mobility

A preprint version of the article is available at arXiv.

Abstract

The urban spatial structure represents the distribution of public and private spaces in cities and how people move within them. Although it usually evolves slowly, it can change quickly during large-scale emergency events, as well as due to urban renewal in rapidly developing countries. Here we present an approach to delineate such urban dynamics in quasi-real time through a human mobility metric, the mobility centrality index ΔKS. As a case study, we tracked the urban dynamics of eleven Spanish cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results revealed that their structures became more monocentric during the lockdown in the first wave, but kept their regular spatial structures during the second wave. To provide a more comprehensive understanding of mobility from home, we also introduce a dimensionless metric, KSHBT, which measures the extent of home-based travel and provides statistical insights into the transmission of COVID-19. By utilizing individual mobility data, our metrics enable the detection of changes in the urban spatial structure.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Socioeconomic segregation and its relation to the radius of gyration.
Fig. 2: Schematic illustration of aggregate metrics relating human mobility to urban structure.
Fig. 3: Defining urban structure via the mobility behavior of the population.
Fig. 4: Changes in urban spatial structure and mobility behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic in the 11 Spanish cities.

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are described in the paper and the Supplementary Information. For contractual and privacy reasons, we cannot make the raw mobile-phone data available. One can contract Kido Dynamics SA to try to get access to the raw mobile-phone data. A sample of the data is available in ref. 50. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The implementation of this work is available at GitHub (https://github.com/humnetlab/Urban_Dynamics) and Zenodo51.

References

  1. Bettencourt, L. M. The origins of scaling in cities. Science 340, 1438–1441 (2013).

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  2. Batty, M. A theory of city size. Science 340, 1418–1419 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Batty, M. The size, scale and shape of cities. Science 319, 769–771 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  4. Keuschnigg, M., Mutgan, S. & Hedström, P. Urban scaling and the regional divide. Sci. Adv. 5, eaav0042 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Xu, Y., Olmos, L. E., Abbar, S. & González, M. C. Deconstructing laws of accessibility and facility distribution in cities. Sci. Adv. 6, eabb4112 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Bertaud, A. The Spatial Organization of Cities: Deliberate Outcome or Unforeseen Consequence? IURD Working Paper 2004-01 (Univ. California, 2004).

  7. Bettencourt, L. M., Lobo, J., Helbing, D., Kühnert, C. & West, G. B. Growth, innovation, scaling and the pace of life in cities. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 7301–7306 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Ewing, R. & Rong, F. The impact of urban form on U.S. residential energy use. Housing Policy Debate 19, 1–30 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Lamsal, L., Martin, R., Parrish, D. & Krotkov, N. Scaling relationship for NO2 pollution and urban population size: a satellite perspective. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47, 7855–7861 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Li, D. et al. Urban heat island: aerodynamics or imperviousness? Sci. Adv. 5, eaau4299 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Anderson, W. P., Kanaroglou, P. S. & Miller, E. J. Urban form, energy and the environment: a review of issues, evidence and policy. Urban Studies 33, 7–35 (1996).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Tsekeris, T. & Geroliminis, N. City size, network structure and traffic congestion. J. Urban Econ. 76, 1–14 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Kaza, N. Urban form and transportation energy consumption. Energy Policy 136, 111049 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Clark, C. Urban population densities. J. R. Stat. Soc. A (Gen.) 114, 490–496 (1951).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Bertaud, A. & Malpezzi, S. The Spatial Distribution of Population in 48 World Cities: Implications for Economies in Transition, 54–55 (The Center for Urban Land Economics Research, Univ. Wisconsin, 2003).

  16. Pereira, R. H. M., Nadalin, V., Monasterio, L. & Albuquerque, P. H. Urban centrality: a simple index. Geogr. Anal. 45, 77–89 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Sohn, J. Are commuting patterns a good indicator of urban spatial structure? J. Transport Geogr. 13, 306–317 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  18. Acosta, R. J., Kishore, N., Irizarry, R. A. & Buckee, C. O. Quantifying the dynamics of migration after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 32772–32778 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Calabrese, F., Ferrari, L. & Blondel, V. D. Urban sensing using mobile phone network data: a survey of research. ACM Comput. Surveys 47, 1–20 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Olmos, L. E., Çolak, S., Shafiei, S., Saberi, M. & González, M. C. Macroscopic dynamics and the collapse of urban traffic. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 12654–12661 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Xu, Y., Çolak, S., Kara, E. C., Moura, S. J. & González, M. C. Planning for electric vehicle needs by coupling charging profiles with urban mobility. Nat. Energy 3, 484–493 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Grantz, K. H. et al. The use of mobile phone data to inform analysis of COVID-19 pandemic epidemiology. Nat. Commun. 11, 4961 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Oliver, N. et al. Mobile phone data for informing public health actions across the COVID-19 pandemic life cycle. Sci. Adv. 6, eabc0764 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Chang, S. et al. Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening. Nature 589, 82–87 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Alessandretti, L. What human mobility data tell us about COVID-19 spread. Nat. Rev. Phys. 4, 12–13 (2022).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Bor, J., Cohen, G. H. & Galea, S. Population health in an era of rising income inequality: USA, 1980–2015. Lancet 389, 1475–1490 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  27. Florez, M. A. et al. Measuring the impact of economic well being in commuting networks—a case study of Bogota, Colombia. Proc. Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting Paper no. 17-03745 (Transportation Research Board, 2017).

  28. Wang, Q., Phillips, N. E., Small, M. L. & Sampson, R. J. Urban mobility and neighborhood isolation in America’s 50 largest cities. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 7735–7740 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  29. González, M. C., Hidalgo, C. A. & Barabasi, A.-L. Understanding individual human mobility patterns. Nature 453, 779–782 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Bonaccorsi, G. et al. Economic and social consequences of human mobility restrictions under COVID-19. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 15530–15535 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  31. Verschuur, J., Koks, E. E. & Hall, J. W. Observed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global trade. Nat. Hum. Behav. 5, 305–307 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  32. Brough, R., Freedman, M. & Phillips, D. C. Understanding socioeconomic disparities in travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. J. Reg. Sci. 61, 753–774 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  33. Chinazzi, M. et al. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science 368, 395–400 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  34. Meijers, E. J. & Burger, M. J. Spatial structure and productivity in U.S. metropolitan areas. Environ. Planning A Econ. Space 42, 1383–1402 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  35. LandScan Global Population Database (ORNL, 2017); http://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/

  36. Martins, H. Urban compaction or dispersion? An air quality modelling study. Atmos. Environ. 54, 60–72 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  37. Rubiera Morollón, F., González Marroquin, V. M. & Pérez Rivero, J. L. Urban sprawl in Spain: differences among cities and causes. Eur. Planning Studies 24, 207–226 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  38. Zoğal, V., Domènech, A. & Emekli, G. Stay at (which) home: second homes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. J. Tourism Futures 8, 125–133 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  39. Cori, A., Ferguson, N. M., Fraser, C. & Cauchemez, S. A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. Am. J. Epidemiol. 178, 1505–1512 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  40. Ke, G. et al. LightGBM: a highly efficient gradient boosting decision tree. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 30 (eds Guyon, I. et al.) (2017).

  41. Lundberg, S. M. et al. From local explanations to global understanding with explainable AI for trees. Nat. Mach. Intell. 2, 56–67 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  42. AUDES project (ESI, 2022); http://alarcos.esi.uclm.es/per/fruiz/audes/

  43. Census data (United States Census Bureau, 2016); https://www.census.gov/data.html

  44. Jiang, S. et al. The TimeGeo modeling framework for urban mobility without travel surveys. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, E5370–E5378 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  45. De Nadai, M., Xu, Y., Letouzé, E., González, M. C. & Lepri, B. Socio-economic, built environment and mobility conditions associated with crime: a study of multiple cities. Sci. Rep. 10, 13871 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  46. Abbott, S. et al. Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 using national and subnational case counts. Wellcome Open Res. 5, 112 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  47. Nouvellet, P. et al. Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Nat. Commun. 12, 1090 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  48. Imai, N. et al. Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV, 625 (Imperial College London, 2020).

  49. Ryu, S., Kim, D., Lim, J.-S., Ali, S. T. & Cowling, B. J. Serial interval and transmission dynamics during SARS-CoV-2 delta variant predominance, South Korea. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 28, 407–410 (2022).

    Google Scholar 

  50. Xu, Y. et al. Sample data for the paper titled urban dynamics through the lens of human mobility (Zenodo, 2023); https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8001784

  51. Xu, Y. et al. Source code for the paper titled urban dynamics through the lens of human mobility (Zenodo, 2023); https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8001855

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank P. Wang for the data provided. This work was supported by Berkeley DeepDrive (BDD) and the ITS-SB1 Berkeley Statewide Transportation Research Program. Y.X. and X.Y. were also supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (62102258), the Shanghai Pujiang Program (21PJ1407300), the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project (2021SHZDZX0102) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

All contributors who fulfill the authorship criteria are listed as co-authors in this paper. Other contributors who do not meet all criteria for authorship are listed in the Acknowledgements. Y.X., L.E.O., X.Y. and M.C.G. conceived the research and designed the analyses. D.M. and A.H. processed the Spanish data. Y.X. and L.E.O. performed the analyses. M.C.G. and Y.X. wrote the paper. M.C.G. supervised the research.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Marta C. González.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Peer review

Peer review information

Nature Computational Science thanks Elsa Arcaute, Benjamin F. Maier, and the other, anonymous, reviewer for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editor: Fernando Chirigati, in collaboration with the Nature Computational Science team. Peer reviewer reports are available.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary information

Supplementary sections 1–6, Figs. 1–19 and Tables 1 and 2.

Peer Review File

Source data

Source Data Fig. 1

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 3

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 4

Statistical source data.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Xu, Y., Olmos, L.E., Mateo, D. et al. Urban dynamics through the lens of human mobility. Nat Comput Sci 3, 611–620 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-023-00484-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-023-00484-5

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing AI and Robotics

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: AI and Robotics newsletter — what matters in AI and robotics research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: AI and Robotics