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  • Review Article
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Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 5, pages 193–210 (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.

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Fig. 1: Antarctic and Greenland ice mass change.
Fig. 2: Key processes influencing ice sheet mass balance.
Fig. 3: Past, present and future changes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Fig. 4: Past and future Greenland air temperature and sea level contribution between 1850 and 2100.
Fig. 5: Atmospheric circulation and associated surface temperature changes.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate & Cryosphere core project, the International Arctic Science Committee and SCAR for co-sponsoring an ISMASS workshop that led to this collaboration. E.H. and A. Silvano acknowledge funding from NERC (NE/W005875/1, NE/Y000129/1 and NE/V014285/1). F.D.W.C. acknowledges funding from the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation. R.R. was supported by the TiPACCs project, which receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 820575. J.D.R. was supported by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (grant agreement no MR/W011816/1). H.G. received funding from the EU’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT and the Research Council of Norway under projects 295046 and 324639. L.D.S. acknowledges funding from the PNRA19_00022 project. F.C. acknowledges funding from the PNRA18_00002 project and from the SCAR INSTANT Programme. R.M. received funding from the EU’s Horizon Europe Programme under grant agreement number 101060452, OCEAN:ICE. I.S. acknowledges funding by the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change), a joint research project of the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF). A.G. acknowledges financial support from the New Zealand Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (grant number ANTA1801; Antarctic Science Platform). The authors thank S. Hanna for the help with figure preparation.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK

    Edward Hanna

  2. Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research, HUN-REN Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences (MTA-Centre of Excellence), Budapest, Hungary

    Dániel Topál

  3. Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

    Dániel Topál

  4. Geological Survey of Denmark & Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Jason E. Box

  5. School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Cardiff, Cardiff, UK

    Sammie Buzzard

  6. Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK

    Sammie Buzzard, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ronja Reese & Sainan Sun

  7. Airbus Defence and Space Ltd, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK

    Frazer D. W. Christie

  8. Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Christine Hvidberg

  9. Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA

    Mathieu Morlighem

  10. Section of Geophysics, National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics, Trieste, Italy

    Laura De Santis & Florence Colleoni

  11. Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

    Alessandro Silvano

  12. Department of Geosciences, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

    Ingo Sasgen

  13. Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany

    Ingo Sasgen

  14. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA

    Alison F. Banwell

  15. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Michiel R. van den Broeke

  16. Department of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences, College of Natural Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA

    Robert DeConto

  17. Norce Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

    Heiko Goelzer

  18. Antarctic Research Centre, Te Puna Pātiotio, Victoria University of Wellington, Te Herenga Waka, Wellington, Te Whanganui-a-Tara, Aotearoa New Zealand

    Alexandra Gossart

  19. Division of Research and Educational Support, Mid Sweden University, Östersund, Sweden

    Katrin Lindbäck

  20. Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway

    Katrin Lindbäck

  21. School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

    Bertie Miles

  22. National Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Ruth Mottram

  23. Departement of Geosciences, Environnement, Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium

    Frank Pattyn

  24. Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA

    Eric Rignot

  25. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA

    Eric Rignot

  26. Radar Science and Engineering Section, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Oak Drive, CA, USA

    Eric Rignot

  27. Department of Earth Science, Barkatullah University, Bhopal, India

    Aakriti Srivastava

  28. Department of Geological Sciences and Engineering, University of Nevada, Reno, NV, USA

    Justin Toller

  29. Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK

    Peter A. Tuckett

  30. Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT, USA

    Lizz Ultee

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Contributions

E.H. designed and co-ordinated the Review and raised support for the ISMASS workshop. E.H., J.E.B., S.B., F.D.W.C., C.H., M.M., D.T., L.D.S. and A. Silvano led the writing, and all authors contributed to the writing and discussion of ideas. I.S. designed Fig. 1, D.T. designed Figs. 2 and 5, F.C. designed Fig. 3 and J.E.B. designed Fig. 4.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Edward Hanna.

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RINGS: https://www.scar.org/science/rings/about/

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Hanna, E., Topál, D., Box, J.E. et al. Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Nat Rev Earth Environ 5, 193–210 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7

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