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  • Review Article
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Towards scientific forecasting of magmatic eruptions

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 5, pages 5–22 (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

Forecasting eruptions is a fundamental goal of volcanology. However, difficulties in identifying eruptive precursors, fragmented approaches and lack of resources make eruption forecasting difficult to achieve. In this Review, we explore the first-order scientific approaches that are essential to progress towards forecasting the time and location of magmatic eruptions. Forecasting in time uses different monitoring techniques, depending on the conduit-opening mode. Ascending magma can create a new conduit (closed-conduit eruptions), use a previously open conduit (open-conduit eruptions) or flow below a solidified magma plug (semi-open-conduit eruptions). Closed-conduit eruptions provide stronger monitoring signals often detected months in advance, but they commonly occur at volcanoes with poorly known pre-eruptive behaviour. Open-conduit eruptions, associated with low-viscosity magmas, provide more subtle signals often detected only minutes in advance, although their higher eruption frequency promotes more testable approaches. Semi-open-conduit eruptions show intermediate behaviours, potentially displaying clear pre-eruptive signals days in advance and often recurring repeatedly. However, any given volcano can experience multiple conduit-opening modes, sometimes simultaneously, requiring combinations of forecasting approaches. Forecasting the location of vent opening relies on determining the stresses controlling magma propagation, deformation and seismic monitoring. The use of physics-based models to assimilate monitoring data and observations will substantially improve forecasting, but requires a deeper understanding of pre-eruptive processes and more extensive monitoring data.

Key points

  • Magmatic eruptions are usually preceded by some level of volcanic unrest, meaning a deviation of monitoring parameters from the baseline, a condition that can provide eruptive precursors.

  • Different types of precursors can be identified among the monitoring signals, mainly depending on the conduit-opening type feeding the eruption (‘conduit-opening mode’). The three main modes are open conduit, semi-open conduit and closed conduit.

  • The conduit-opening mode affects the intensity of the monitoring signals, provided that an adequate monitoring system is available, and hence the warning time to eruption and ultimately the effectiveness of an alert.

  • Understanding of unrest processes and knowledge of specific volcanoes (structure and dynamics of the plumbing system, magma composition and volatiles, pre-eruptive history) also provide appropriate input to operational aspects, improving eruption forecasting.

  • Forecasting the location of opening of eruptive vents is moving from description-based to physics-based models that consider the regional and local stress field, in addition to monitoring data.

  • Better eruption forecasting will rely on merging physics-based models with real-time data assimilation, to provide probabilities and uncertainties.

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Fig. 1: Volcano unrest and conduit-opening mode.
Fig. 2: Eruption forecasting at closed-conduit volcanoes.
Fig. 3: Forecasting the location of vent opening of closed-conduit eruptions in 2D.
Fig. 4: Semi-open-conduit eruptions.
Fig. 5: Open-conduit eruptions.
Fig. 6: Overview of current forecasting approaches and related pros and cons.

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Acknowledgements

F.G. is partially supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC20K1674 from the Interdisciplinary Science Program of the Earth Science Division. The authors thank W. Chadwick, who kindly provided the updated diagram of Fig. 1; F. Sigmundsson and V. Drouin, who provided the Fagradalsfjall interferogram in Fig. 2; and A. Aiuppa, who provided helpful suggestions and the data presented in Fig. 5.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dipartimento Scienze, Università Roma Tre, Rome, Italy

    Valerio Acocella

  2. Dipartimento Scienze della Terra, Università di Firenze, Florence, Italy

    Maurizio Ripepe

  3. Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy

    Eleonora Rivalta

  4. Sektion 2.1 Erdbeben- und Vulkanphysik, Helmholtz Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Potsdam, Germany

    Eleonora Rivalta

  5. Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP), Université Paris Cité, CNRS (UMR 7154), Paris, France

    Aline Peltier

  6. Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise (OVPF), Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP), La Plaine des Cafres, France

    Aline Peltier

  7. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

    Federico Galetto

  8. Seismic Research Centre, The University of the West Indies, St Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago

    Erouscilla Joseph

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Contributions

V.A. conceived and coordinated the work and wrote the manuscript. M.R. developed the open-conduit section. E.R. provided substantial discussion of content. A.P. developed the monitoring section. F.G. provided research data. E.J. developed part of the semi-open-conduit section. All authors contributed to the discussion of content, writing and review/editing of manuscript before submission.

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Acocella, V., Ripepe, M., Rivalta, E. et al. Towards scientific forecasting of magmatic eruptions. Nat Rev Earth Environ 5, 5–22 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00492-z

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